Real Madrid vs Girona: La Liga Preview, Predictions and Bet Builder Tips
9th April 2026
La Liga gives us the headline act on Friday night. Real Madrid host Girona at the Bernabeu, and the Statz projections have this one firmly pointing one way. Full head to head data on Statz here.
Form and Lineups
Real Madrid’s recent form reads L-W-W-W-L – three consecutive wins in the middle of that run, with the last result a loss. Girona are L-D-W-L-W – inconsistent, but that last result a win does give them a foothold heading into Friday. On paper, this is Madrid at home – but Girona have shown they can mix it with the big clubs at moments this season.
Madrid deploy a 4-4-2. Kylian Mbappe leads the line alongside Brahim Diaz. In midfield, Aurelien Tchouameni anchors alongside Camavinga. Girona’s 4-5-1 is set up defensively – Ruiz up front, with Ounahi and Witsel providing the engine room.
Statz Projections
The Statz team projections are about as one-sided as they come. Real Madrid are projected 2.69 goals to Girona’s 0.81. Madrid’s 18.78 projected shots dwarfs Girona’s 7.46. This is the model rating Madrid as the significantly dominant side.
| Metric | Real Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.69 | 0.81 |
| Shots | 18.78 | 7.46 |
| Shots on Target | 6.81 | 2.63 |
| Corners | 4.83 | 3.00 |
| Fouls | 8.68 | 9.15 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.66 | 1.87 |
| Tackles | 13.29 | 13.25 |
Girona projected slightly higher for fouls (9.15 vs 8.68) and yellow cards (1.87 vs 1.66) – a team defending deep and fighting for every ball. Relevant for the bet builder below.
Referee
The referee for this fixture has not yet been confirmed on Statz at time of writing. Check the Statz H2H page closer to kick-off for the full referee stats when assigned.
Bet Builder Tips
The Statz Bet Builder Tool has four legs for this fixture at a combined 9.25 on Bet365. Here’s the breakdown from the Statz bet builder data:
- Azzedine Ounahi 2+ shots – 100% hit rate in last 5, recording 2, 3, 2, 3, 2 shots in those appearances. Available at 1.62 on Bet365.
- Alex Moreno 1+ shot – 100% hit rate last 5, recording 1, 1, 2, 1, 1. Available at 2.00 on Bet365.
- Vitor Reis 2+ tackles – 100% hit rate last 5, with 3, 2, 2, 2, 3 tackles. Available at 1.91 on Bet365.
- Aurelien Tchouameni 2+ tackles – 80% hit rate last 5, with 2, 2, 0, 2, 4 tackles. Available at 1.50 on Bet365.
Combined: 9.25 – Build on Bet365. Check live prices before placing.
The Angle
The Statz model projects Real Madrid at 2.69 goals and nearly 19 shots – this is a dominant home performance expected on paper. Girona defending deep means tackles and fouls will be there, which is exactly what the Ounahi and Reis legs are tapping into. All four bet builder legs hit 80-100% in the last five, which is about as clean as it gets. The 9.25 combined price is worth a look. Check the La Liga projections on Statz before kick-off for any last-minute lineup news.