PSG vs Monaco: Ligue 1 Preview, Predictions and Bet Builder Tips
9th April 2026
Ligue 1 serves up its standout fixture on Friday night as PSG host Monaco at the Parc des Princes. The form book couldn’t paint a starker contrast – Paris arrive on W-D-D-W-D while Monaco roll in on a perfect W-W-W-W-W. This is the game of the evening. Full head to head stats on Statz here.
Form and Lineups
Monaco’s form is the story of this one. Five straight wins coming into Friday – they arrive as the in-form side and will fancy their chances on the road. PSG’s recent run is inconsistent by their own standards; three wins from the last five with two draws in there.
Paris line up in a 4-2-3-1. Monaco go with a 3-4-2-1 – a shape that gives them solidity without giving up the press. Folarin Balogun leads the line for Monaco and has been in fine touch – 3 goals in the last five appearances, with 2 shots on target in that run.
Statz Projections
The Statz team projections tell an interesting story here. PSG are projected 1.29 goals, Monaco 1.96 – the model rates the visitors higher for output in this one. That’s not nothing.
| Metric | PSG | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 1.96 |
| Shots | 11.55 | 13.22 |
| Shots on Target | 3.68 | 4.48 |
| Corners | 4.61 | 3.83 |
| Fouls | 9.60 | 10.55 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.84 | 1.93 |
| Tackles | 13.92 | 14.25 |
Monaco edge the shots and shots on target projections. Both sides projected close to 2 yellow cards each – handy context for the referee section below.
Referee: Romain Lissorgue
Romain Lissorgue takes charge. He averages 25.8 fouls per game and 4.5 yellow cards – one of the higher cards-per-game averages in Ligue 1. With both sides projected north of 9 fouls each and the models seeing close to 2 yellows apiece, this is a game where the card markets have plenty of interest. Factor that into your bet builders.
Bet Builder Tips
The bet builder tab is limited for this fixture due to data availability, so these legs are drawn from the player fouls data on Statz and the projections model. Use the Statz Bet Builder Tool to check live odds and build your own.
- Folarin Balogun 1+ shot on target – Has registered shots on target in 4 of his last 5 appearances. Monaco’s main attacking threat and the model projects them for 4.48 SOT as a team. Strong starting point.
- Folarin Balogun 1+ foul committed – Committed fouls in 4 of his last 5 games (3, 0, 2, 3, 3 in the last 5 per Statz). With Lissorgue’s 25.8 fouls average this is well-supported.
- W. Faes 1+ foul committed – The Monaco defender committed fouls in 4 of the last 5 (1, 0, 1, 2, 3). Defenders fouls + Lissorgue = productive combo.
- 1+ yellow card in the match – Lissorgue averages 4.5 yellows per game. Monaco projected 1.93 cards, PSG 1.84. The models and the referee both point the same way here.
Combined price for the first three legs at Bet365: build it here on Bet365. Always check the live price before placing.
The Angle
Monaco arriving on five straight wins and the Statz model projecting them for almost 2 goals and 13+ shots is the headline. PSG at home should still be the favourite but this isn’t a game to be writing off the visitors. The most interesting angle is Balogun – he’s been active in front of goal and active in the foul count, which in a high-fouls game with a card-happy referee makes him the player to anchor your bet builder around. Check the live Ligue 1 projections on Statz before kick-off for any lineup changes.