Nottingham Forest vs Porto Predictions and Betting Tips – Europa League
16th April 2026
Nottingham Forest hosting Porto in the Europa League quarter-final second leg, and it could not be tighter. Porto levelled in the first leg to make it 1-1 – which means Forest need a win, Porto need a win or a draw. For a side that has never won the Europa League and is trying to end a near half-century wait for European glory, this is as big as it gets.
Nuno Espirito Santo has rebuilt this Forest side into a genuine European outfit. Porto under Vitor Bruno are no mugs – they have won three of their last five, with two draws. But Forest at the City Ground with this much riding on it is a serious proposition.
Lineups and Player News
Forest line up in a predicted XI: Ortega; Aina, Murillo, Milenkovic, Neco Williams; Sangare, Anderson; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Igor Jesus.
Porto: Diogo Costa; Alberto Costa, Thiago Silva, Bednarek, Zaidu; Fofana, Rosario; Veiga, William Gomes, Borja Sainz; Moffi.
Morgan Gibbs-White is Forest’s key creative player and Statz flags him as a standout for shots on target. For Porto, William Gomes has 5 goals in his last 10 games – a real threat on the counter.
Recent Form
Forest: D W W L W (last 5). Inconsistent but capable of big nights – that loss is the outlier in a strong recent run. They drew the first leg away in Porto, which tells you something about their defensive organisation.
Porto: D W W D W (last 5). Solid but not clinical. They have not lost in five, but two of those are draws. At 3.2 to win tonight, they are rated as underdogs and will likely set up to nick a goal and hold.
Statz Projections
The Statz team projections show Forest generating 1.29 goals and 13.7 shots. Porto project at 1.04 goals and 7.8 shots. Forest the clear shot favourite at home, but the goal projections are tight – under 2.5 total goals is a genuine possibility here.
No referee data available on Statz for this fixture yet.
Betting Angles
Forest win at 7/5 (2.4) is the headline market. Given the shot projection advantage and home crowd, that is solid value. BTTS Yes at 1.95 is interesting given both sides need goals, but Porto’s low shot projection makes the “No” at 1.80 worth considering.
The Statz Bet Builder has four strong player legs for this one.
Nikola Milenkovic has made 1+ tackle in all 5 of his last games (vals: 3, 1, 2, 1, 1) at 1.33 – a near-certainty from a centre-back who will be active tonight. Borja Sainz commits 1+ foul every single game in his last 5 (vals: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1) at 1.25. A winger who presses and chases – this market has not failed him in five straight.
Morgan Gibbs-White has registered 1+ shot on target in 4 of his last 5 (vals: 1, 0, 1, 1, 1) at 1.67. As Forest’s main creator from the 10, he will be involved heavily if this goes to a deciding moment. Alberto Costa – Porto’s right back who loves to push forward – has 1+ shot in 4 of 5 (vals: 2, 1, 1, 0, 1) at 2.00.
Four-fold combined: 5.56 via bet365.
Summary
This is the tie of the night. Forest have home advantage and the shot edge per Statz – they should create enough to win it. Porto will make it tight and have the threat of William Gomes on the break.
Best play: Milenkovic 1+ tackle / Borja Sainz 1+ foul / Gibbs-White 1+ SOT / Alberto Costa 1+ shot – 5.56 with bet365. Standalone value: Forest to win at 7/5.