Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace Predictions and Betting Tips – Conference League

16th April 2026

Crystal Palace go into this second leg with one of the most comfortable advantages in Conference League history. 3-0 winners in the first leg, Palace just need to avoid a catastrophic collapse to book their place in the semi-finals. Fiorentina, meanwhile, need an absolute miracle – three goals without reply in Florence. On current form, that looks very unlikely.

Palace’s last 5: L W L W D. Not a team in rampant form, but they do not need to be. They are here to manage a three-goal lead. Fiorentina’s last 5: W L L W L – two wins from five, and they have not looked convincing domestically either.

Lineups and Player News

Statz does not yet have predicted lineups confirmed for this fixture. Lineups will be updated on the Statz H2H lineups page closer to kick-off.

What Statz does flag: Ismaila Sarr is Palace’s standout player with 6 goals in his last 10 games. He will almost certainly start tonight even with a big lead – Oliver Glasner is not the type to wave the white flag in Europe. For Fiorentina, Marin Pongracic leads their defensive stats with 16 fouls in the last 10 games – a combative centre-back who is going to have a very long evening trying to keep this remotely alive.

Statz Projections

The Statz team projections show a genuinely even match on paper: Fiorentina 1.31 goals, 10.1 shots. Crystal Palace 1.34 goals, 10.3 shots. Palace edge it marginally even in projections – remarkable given they are playing away with a three-goal lead.

Referee is Jesus Gil Manzano (17 games, 4.88 yellows/game, 24.7 fouls/game). A relatively active card-happy referee in a game where Fiorentina will be forced to press high and foul. Yellow card markets are worth a look.

Betting Angles

The result market is tricky. Fiorentina at 3.2 to win the match is based purely on them needing to attack, but they have to score three without conceding. Palace at 2.3 reflects the reality – even with rotation, they are the better side on current evidence.

With no bet builder player legs confirmed on Statz at time of writing (lineups not yet in), the market angles here are broader:

Over 2.5 goals looks appealing. Fiorentina have to come out and attack – they cannot sit back. If Palace nick one on the break, it opens the game up further. The projections show over 2.6 combined goals expected.

BTTS Yes at 1.83 is interesting – Palace have scored in most of their away games this season and Fiorentina must go forward. Both teams scoring is a reasonable expectation in a game where one side is chasing and the other is not entirely content to park the bus.

Check the Statz Europa Conference League projections page for updated player-level data ahead of kick-off.

Summary

Fiorentina need a miracle – three goals without reply against a side ranked higher and in better form. It is not happening. Palace will manage the tie professionally. The entertainment is in the goal markets as Fiorentina are forced to throw players forward.

Best plays: BTTS Yes (1.83) and Crystal Palace win or draw on the night (check your exchange for this line). Avoid the result market if you can and lean into the goals.