Aston Villa vs Bologna Predictions and Betting Tips – Europa League

16th April 2026

Villa are 3-1 up from the first leg and playing at Villa Park tonight. This tie is done in all but name – but that just makes it more interesting for the right markets.

Unai Emery’s side head into the second leg on a five-game winning run, having battered Bologna at the Dall’Ara three weeks ago. Bologna, to their credit, have been solid in the Europa League this season – three wins and two draws in their last five – but they need two goals without reply to force extra time. That is a big ask against a Villa defence that has been outstanding.

Lineups and Player News

Statz has predicted lineups for both sides. Villa line up in a 4-2-3-1: Bizot; Cash, Konsa, Pau Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins. Bologna also go 4-2-3-1: Ravaglia; Joao Mario, Vitik, Heggem, Miranda; Freuler, Moro; Rowe, Ferguson, Bernardeschi; Castro.

Ollie Watkins has 5 goals in his last 10 games and will fancy his chances of adding to that tally tonight. For Bologna, Jonathan Rowe leads their attack with 4 goals in the same period – not a threat to be dismissed entirely.

Recent Form

Villa: W W W W W (last 5). That tells you everything – Emery has this team humming. They are not going to take their foot off the gas entirely, but rotation is possible given the comfortable aggregate lead.

Bologna: D W W D W (last 5). They have been consistent without being spectacular. The problem tonight is they need to win by two, and the tie is almost certainly over before it begins.

Statz Projections

According to Statz team projections, Villa are expected to generate 1.86 goals and 13.5 shots. Bologna project at 0.96 goals and 7.8 shots. The shot volume gap tells you a lot – Villa generate nearly double the shot count. Even with rotation, the model backs the home side heavily.

Referee tonight is Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez (12 games, 5.0 yellows/game, 27.3 fouls/game). A busy referee by average – good news for foul markets.

Betting Angles

The tie is done. Villa to win (8/15) is too short to be interesting. The smarter plays are in the player markets via the Statz Bet Builder.

Federico Bernardeschi has hit 2+ shots in all 5 of his last games (vals: 3, 3, 2, 2, 5). At 1.44, that is solid value – he is Bologna’s creative outlet and will need to force the issue tonight. Santiago Castro has the same record – 2+ shots in 5/5 (vals: 2, 4, 4, 2, 3) at 1.44. Bologna have to attack.

Matty Cash commits 1+ foul in 5 of his last 5 (vals: 1, 2, 3, 1, 1) at 1.29. With Sanchez Martinez officiating and Bologna needing to push forward, Cash will be busy defensively. And Emiliano Buendia has hit 2+ tackles in 4 of his last 5 (vals: 3, 2, 2, 2, 0) at 1.40.

The four-fold: Bernardeschi 2+ shots, Castro 2+ shots, Cash 1+ foul, Buendia 2+ tackles. Combined at 3.75 via bet365. All four legs backed by consistent recent form data from Statz.

Summary

The tie is over – Villa cruise through. The interest is in the player markets. Bologna’s forwards have to attack to have any chance, which sets up the shot markets nicely, while the high-foul referee makes Cash’s foul market a strong standalone as well.

Best play: Bernardeschi 2+ shots / Castro 2+ shots / Cash 1+ foul / Buendia 2+ tackles – 3.75 with bet365.