Mexico vs England Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026

5th July 2026

Mexico vs England is one of the standout fixtures of the World Cup 2026 Round of 32, kicking off at 01:00 BST on Monday 6 July. Mexico have been the surprise package of the tournament, topping their group with a perfect record and conceding almost nothing. England arrive as favourites on paper, but the data makes this closer than you might think. Here is the full Statz breakdown – all stats from the H2H page.

Lineups and Player News

Mexico are expected to go with Raul Rangel in goal behind a back four of Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez and Jesus Gallardo. Erik Lira, Luis Romo and Gilberto Mora form the midfield engine room, with Roberto Alvarado, Raul Jimenez and Julian Quinones leading the line.

England look set to line up with Jordan Pickford in goal, a back four of Djed Spence, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi and Nico O’Reilly, Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice as the double pivot, and Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford in behind Harry Kane.

These are predicted lineups only – not confirmed. Noni Madueke has strong Statz numbers (1.8 shots avg, 100% hit rate last 5) but does not appear in England’s predicted XI – check the confirmed lineup before using him in any markets.

Recent Team Form

Mexico have been exceptional at this tournament. They topped their group with a perfect 9 points from 3 games (W3 D0 L0, GD +6). Over their last 10 outings they have gone W8 D2 L0 – one of the best records in the competition. Crucially, they have conceded just 2 goals across those 10 games. This is a disciplined, well-organised side.

England also topped their group on 7 points (W2 D1 L0, GD +4). Their last 10 reads W7 D2 L1, with 17 scored and 5 conceded. The form is solid, though Mexico’s defensive record is notably tighter. See the Statz H2H page for a full side-by-side breakdown.

Player Stats and Projections

Statz projections make this genuinely tight: Mexico 0.91 – England 1.06. England edge it on expected output, but the margin is slim – this is not a walk in the park for Southgate’s side.

Harry Kane is England’s most potent threat. He averages 0.41 projected goals per game with a 2.0 SOT average, and has hit 1+ SOT in each of his last 5 games – 100% hit rate. If England are going to win this, Kane will likely be central to it.

For Mexico, Raul Jimenez leads the line with 0.33 goals per game projected and 2.12 shots per game (0.84 SOT avg). Julian Quinones adds a 0.75 SOT average and has hit 1+ SOT in each of his last 5 outings – another 100% hit rate. Jesus Gallardo also catches the eye with 1.85 tackles and 1.26 fouls per game.

In England’s midfield, Declan Rice averages 1.76 projected tackles per game – worth watching in tackle markets if available. Elliot Anderson picks up 1.30 fouls per game too.

Betting Angles

No combined odds are available for World Cup bet builder markets right now, but the player stat hit rates give solid angles for those platforms that do offer them.

All data sourced directly from Statz projections.

Summary

England’s projections edge them here but do not sleep on Mexico. Their defensive record across the last 10 games is exceptional and they have won all three group games without dropping a point. This has the makings of a tight, cagey knockout tie.

Kane is the standout data point for England. Jimenez and Quinones represent Mexico’s best attacking threat. Referee Alireza Faghani is lenient on cards – just 3.71 yellows per game and 0 reds across 7 World Cup games – so expect this game to be allowed to flow.

For the full squad data and live updates, check England on Statz, Mexico on Statz and the World Cup hub. Kickoff is 01:00 BST Monday morning.