France vs Morocco Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026
5th July 2026
France and Morocco meet in the World Cup 2026 Round of 32 on Thursday evening, with kick-off at 21:00 BST. This is a repeat of the 2022 semi-final – one of the standout matches of that tournament – and the data suggests another compelling watch. Here is what the Statz projections say ahead of the clash.
Lineups and Player News
Confirmed lineups are not yet available for this fixture. Both squads are expected to name strong sides given the knockout-stage context, but predicted XIs will be updated on this page closer to kick-off on Thursday. Keep an eye on the France team page and Morocco team page on Statz for the latest squad news.
Recent Form
France arrive as group winners, topping their pool with nine points from three games – three wins, no draws, no losses – with a goal difference of +8. Their last-10 record reads W9 D0 L1, with 26 goals scored and just eight conceded. The one blip is a single defeat in that run, which puts their overall form in sharp perspective. Didier Deschamps has his side in excellent shape heading into the knockouts.
Morocco are no slouch either. They finished second in their group with seven points from three games – two wins and a draw – and carry a +3 goal difference. Their last-10 record is W6 D4 L0, scoring 23 and conceding seven. The Atlas Lions have not lost in their last ten, and that unbeaten run gives them genuine confidence going into this one.
The World Cup competition page has full standings, results, and upcoming fixtures across the tournament.
Player Projections and Interesting Stats
Kylian Mbappe is the standout performer on the Statz World Cup projections tool. He carries a 0.61 projected goals figure for this game – the highest of any player on the pitch – and 1.70 shots on target per game. His hit rate for 2+ SOT in his last five World Cup appearances is 100%, with an average of 3.4 shots on target per game. That is a serious volume for a single attacker.
Behind Mbappe in the France attack, Jean-Philippe Mateta projects at 0.35 goals and Ousmane Dembele at 0.32. Desire Doue (0.79 SOT avg) and Michael Olise (0.71 SOT avg) add further threat from wide positions. France have firepower across the forward line, not just through one man.
For Morocco, Ayoub El Kaabi leads the attacking projections with 0.19 goals – a more modest figure that reflects the defensive challenge facing the Atlas Lions. Morocco’s strength has been their defensive solidity, conceding just seven in their last ten, rather than their attacking output.
In the foul stats, Neil El Aynaoui leads Morocco’s figures at 1.60 fouls per game, while Adrien Rabiot picks them up regularly for France at 1.30 per game. Dayot Upamecano is worth noting – he has committed 1+ fouls in 100% of his last five appearances, averaging 1.0 per game.
The Statz Mbappe player profile has his full stat breakdown across this tournament if you want to dig deeper.
Betting Angles
World Cup markets are tighter than club football and outright odds for player props vary by bookmaker. Rather than quote prices that may shift, here are four bet builder legs supported by strong hit-rate data from Statz – build them into your preferred book’s bet builder tool.
- Kylian Mbappe – 2+ Shots on Target: 100% hit rate across his last five World Cup appearances, averaging 3.4 SOT per game. The single strongest data point in this preview.
- Marcus Thuram – 2+ Shots: 100% hit rate in his last five, averaging 3.2 shots per game. Thuram has been active in attacking areas throughout the tournament.
- Dayot Upamecano – 1+ Fouls: 100% hit rate in his last five, averaging 1.0 fouls per game. A consistent foul-committing pattern for the France centre-back.
- Amine Sbai – 1+ Shots: 100% hit rate in his last five, averaging 1.4 shots per game. A reliable volume leg at a lower threshold.
No leg here should be treated as a sure thing – 100% hit rates are historical, not guarantees – but the Statz data gives each of these legs a strong foundation. Use the H2H page for the full projections picture before placing anything.
Summary
France are favourites here and the Statz projected scoreline of 1.55-0.80 in their favour reflects that gap. Mbappe is the key figure – his volume stats are exceptional and the projections back that up. Morocco have been defensively solid and carry an unbeaten last-10 run, so this will not be a walkover, but France’s attacking quality across the board makes them tough to look past.
Predicted lineups will be confirmed on this page once available closer to Thursday’s kick-off. Check back for team news updates. Full projections are available now on the Statz World Cup projections page.