Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Predictions and Betting Tips
23rd May 2026
Real Madrid welcome Athletic Club to town in the La Liga with plenty on the line for both sides. The hosts sit 2th on 83 points while the visitors are 12th on 45 points heading into this one.
Let’s dig into the data on Statz and find the angles that matter.
Lineups and Team News
Real Madrid (Predicted): Thibaut Courtois, Daniel Carvajal, Antonio Rüdiger, David Alaba, Fran García, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Thiago Pitarch, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, Brahim Díaz
Athletic Club (Predicted): Unai Simón, Andoni Gorosabel, Yeray Álvarez, Aymeric Laporte, Iñigo Lekue, Mikel Jauregizar, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Iñaki Williams, Álex Berenguer, Robert Navarro, Gorka Guruzeta
Recent Form
Real Madrid come into this with form reading W W L D W D W L W W over their last 10 – that’s W6 D2 L2, scoring 17 and conceding 10.
Athletic Club have gone L W L L W L W L L D in their last 10 – W3 D1 L6, 11 scored and 17 conceded.
Statz Projections
Projected scoreline: Real Madrid 2.14 – 0.90 Athletic Club.
The Statz projections model highlights some interesting numbers here.
Kylian Mbappé leads Real Madrid’s projected goal threat at 0.96 xG, with 4.7 projected shots.
For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta tops the projections at 0.25 xG and 1.7 projected shots.
In the tackling department, Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid) leads the way with 3.13 projected tackles.
Referee
Juan Martínez Munuera takes charge of this one. Across 17 games this season, he averages 4.7 yellows and 28.6 fouls per match – a card-happy official who won’t hesitate to reach for the pocket.
Bet Builder
Our Statz Bet Builder has pulled together a four-leg punt at combined odds of 5.38:
- Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real Madrid) – 1+ Shots @ 1.11 – hit in 100% of last 5 (Y/Y/Y/Y/Y), avg 1.8/game
- Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) – 1+ Fouls @ 1.4 – hit in 100% of last 5 (Y/Y/Y/Y/Y), avg 1.8/game
- Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) – 1+ Shots on Target @ 1.73 – hit in 80% of last 5 (Y/Y/N/Y/Y), avg 1.2/game
- Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club) – 1+ Shots @ 2 – hit in 80% of last 5 (Y/N/Y/Y/Y), avg 1.0/game
The Angle
Real Madrid’s home form has been strong while Athletic Club have struggled on the road recently. with Juan Martínez Munuera in charge, cards are almost guaranteed – he’s averaging 4.7 yellows per game.
For full projections and stats, check out the full head-to-head breakdown on Statz. You can also explore our fixture projections and build your own selections with the Bet Builder Tool.