Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid Predictions and Betting Tips
23rd May 2026
Villarreal welcome Atlético Madrid to town in the La Liga with plenty on the line for both sides. The hosts sit 3th on 69 points while the visitors are 4th on 69 points heading into this one.
Let’s dig into the data on Statz and find the angles that matter.
Lineups and Team News
Villarreal (Predicted): Arnau Tenas, Santiago Mouriño, Willy Kambwala, Rafa Marín, Sergi Cardona, Tajon Buchanan, Pau Navarro, Pape Gueye, Alberto Moleiro, Ayoze Pérez, Tani Oluwaseyi
Atlético Madrid (Predicted): Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill, Clément Lenglet, Dávid Hancko, Matteo Ruggeri, Giuliano Simeone, Obed Vargas, Koke, Álex Baena, Antoine Griezmann, Ademola Lookman
Recent Form
Villarreal come into this with form reading D W L W D W W D L L over their last 10 – that’s W4 D3 L3, scoring 17 and conceding 13.
Atlético Madrid have gone W L L L L W W L W W in their last 10 – W5 D0 L5, 15 scored and 14 conceded.
Statz Projections
Projected scoreline: Villarreal 1.71 – 1.27 Atlético Madrid.
The Statz projections model highlights some interesting numbers here.
Ayoze Pérez leads Villarreal’s projected goal threat at 0.45 xG, with 2.1 projected shots.
For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth tops the projections at 0.38 xG and 2.2 projected shots.
In the tackling department, Santiago Mouriño (Villarreal) leads the way with 2.93 projected tackles.
Bet Builder
Our Statz Bet Builder has pulled together a four-leg punt at combined odds of 5.29:
- Sergi Cardona (Villarreal) – 1+ Shots @ 1.36 – hit in 80% of last 5 (Y/Y/N/Y/Y), avg 1.2/game
- Clément Lenglet (Atlético Madrid) – 1+ Tackles @ 1.44 – hit in 80% of last 5 (N/Y/Y/Y/Y), avg 1.4/game
- Antoine Griezmann (Atlético Madrid) – 1+ Tackles @ 1.5 – hit in 80% of last 5 (Y/N/Y/Y/Y), avg 1.4/game
- Dani Parejo (Villarreal) – 1+ Fouls @ 1.8 – hit in 80% of last 5 (Y/Y/Y/N/Y), avg 1.0/game
The Angle
This is a tough one to call. Both sides come in with mixed form and the data doesn’t scream one clear direction. The bet builder legs above are where the value sits – player props grounded in the numbers rather than trying to predict the unpredictable.
For full projections and stats, check out the full head-to-head breakdown on Statz. You can also explore our fixture projections and build your own selections with the Bet Builder Tool.