Celta vs Sevilla Preview – La Liga Matchday 38
22nd May 2026
Celta need a result. Sevilla just need the season to end. Saturday night in Vigo should be lively for all the wrong reasons for the visitors.
Match Context
La Liga wraps up its final matchday on Saturday, and this one has genuine stakes for Celta de Vigo. Sitting 6th on 51 points, they are in contention for European football and a home win would do their cause no harm at all. Sevilla, in contrast, park up 14th on 43 points – a miserable campaign by their own standards, with 18 losses across 37 games and a goal difference of -13.
Celta’s last 10 reads DLWLLLWWLD – three wins, two draws, five defeats – but they have managed 15 goals in that run with a genuine attacking threat at home. Sevilla have picked up four wins in their last 10 but have drawn none of them; it is boom or bust, and more often bust lately with 17 goals conceded across those fixtures. Head-to-head data and lineups are available on the Statz match page.
Key Stats
Statz projections give Celta 1.60 goals to Sevilla’s 1.03 in this one. The hosts are generating 11.76 shots per game with 4.58 on target, compared to Sevilla’s 9.28 shots and 3.13 on target. Celta are averaging 4.07 corners per game to Sevilla’s 3.72, while the away side are racking up 12.23 fouls per game – a rate that will put them in the referee’s notebook quickly if they come here with a defensive mindset. Sevilla are also conceding more than they’re creating – their GD of -13 tells the full story of a team that has struggled to keep it tight all season.
Players to Watch
Borja Iglesias is Celta’s chief threat, projecting at 0.46 goals per game with 2.05 shots and 1.01 on target per 90. He is the focal point of this Celta attack and deserves serious consideration in both goalscorer and shots markets. Supporting him is Ferran Jutgla, who is projecting 0.40 goals, 2.34 shots, and 1.12 on target – a seriously active player in front of goal. Two forwards with those numbers against a Sevilla defence that has shipped freely all campaign is an enticing matchup for Celta.
In the Sevilla midfield, Lucien Agoume has been one of the more consistent players in defensive work, projecting 1.87 tackles and 1.57 fouls per 90. He has hit 3+ tackles in all five of his last five games. And Neal Maupay leads the line for Sevilla with 1.27 shots and 0.58 on target per 90 – he has registered at least one shot on target in each of his last five appearances.
Betting Angles
Celta to win – The projections back a 1.60-1.03 home win, the table backs it, and Celta’s motivation backs it. Sevilla are fading and their away record this season has been appalling. This feels like a home result.
Both teams to score – Sevilla may be poor but they are not completely toothless. Akor Adams projects at 0.24 goals per game and has shown up in flashes. With both defences shaky – Celta have conceded 48 this season, Sevilla 59 – there is value in BTTS at most prices.
Bet builder @ 8.97 (bet365) – Neal Maupay 1+ shot on target (100% hit rate last 5), Lucien Agoume 3+ tackles (100% last 5), Nemanja Gudelj 1+ shot (80% last 5), Andres Castrin 1+ shot (80% last 5). All four legs are built on solid recent form data from the Statz bet builder.
Verdict
Celta win this. They are at home, they have the motivation, and the data points firmly in their direction – 1.60 projected goals to Sevilla’s 1.03. Back Borja Iglesias to be involved and Celta to take all three points. This is as close to a clear-cut home selection as La Liga’s final day offers.