Getafe vs Osasuna Preview – La Liga Matchday 38

22nd May 2026

Two sides with nothing left to fight for except pride – and in Getafe’s case, maybe a final-day push up the table before the curtain falls on another bruising La Liga campaign.

Match Context

Getafe sit 7th on 48 points going into this one, a decent finish for a club that often finds itself scrapping at the wrong end. They are W14 D6 L17 on the season with a goal difference of -7 – solid defensively, limited going forward, which explains why they average just 1.09 projected goals per game here according to Statz projections. Osasuna are 15th on 42 points – same number of losses as Getafe (17) but more goals scored (44 vs 31), which says something about their willingness to open up even when it costs them.

Recent form does not flatter either side. Getafe’s last 10 reads LWWLWLLDWL – four wins but plenty of inconsistency. Osasuna have had a rough run of it: LWDDLWLLLL, picking up just two wins from their last 10 with six defeats. They head into this one in poor shape and a long way from the team that started the season with ambition.

Key Stats

The numbers on the Statz match page point to a tight, low-scoring affair. Getafe are projected at 1.09 goals to Osasuna’s 0.83 – and that caution is reflected in their output. Getafe generate 9.99 shots per game with 3.31 on target; Osasuna manage just 7.57 shots and 2.55 on target. Fouls are the real story here – Getafe are committing 12.45 per game and Osasuna 13.93, making this one of the foul-heavy fixtures of the round. Cards and set pieces could be decisive.

Mauro Arambarri has been Getafe’s foul machine this season, picking up 2.10 fouls per game in his last 10 – the highest rate of any player in this fixture. Disciplinary markets will be worth exploring.

Players to Watch

Ante Budimir remains Osasuna’s most reliable threat even in a poor run of form. He projects at 0.34 goals per game with 1.88 shots and 0.76 on target per 90, and has registered at least one shot on target in each of his last five games – a 100% hit rate that puts him high on any bet builder shortlist. His full numbers are on Statz.

For Getafe, Martin Satriano carries the biggest goal threat with a 0.29 projection and 1.94 shots per game. He is the most likely home player to test the goalkeeper and should be considered in anytime scorer markets. Mauro Arambarri in midfield generates 1.69 shots per game and contributes at both ends – he is a player who shows up in multiple statistical categories and is worth tracking across Statz markets.

Betting Angles

Under 2.5 goals – Projected at just 1.09-0.83, this looks like a low-scoring grind. Getafe have scored just eight goals in their last 10 games. Osasuna have found the net 12 times in 10, but only two wins to show for it. The foul rate is high, tempo will be low, and both goalkeepers are likely to have comfortable afternoons.

Getafe to win or draw – At home, with the better recent record, and projecting more shots and goals than their visitors. Osasuna’s last four games have all been defeats. There is value in the double chance here.

Bet builder @ 4.11 (bet365) – Ante Budimir 1+ shot on target (100% hit rate last 5), Lucas Torro 1+ shot (80% last 5), Borja Mayoral 2+ shots (80% last 5), Domingos Duarte 1+ tackle (80% last 5). All selections grounded in Statz hit rate data.

Verdict

Getafe to edge this. They are at home, they project more goals (1.09 vs 0.83), and Osasuna have been dreadful in the last month. It will not be pretty – it never is at the Coliseum – but a narrow home win or a tight draw looks the most likely outcome. Back the hosts and keep staking low given how limited both attacks have been this season.