Bologna vs Inter Prediction, Tips and Preview – Serie A 2026

22nd May 2026

Champions arrive in Bologna for a final-day lap of honour – but Simone Inzaghi will want three points regardless. The Bologna vs Inter numbers make it fairly clear who’s winning this one.

Match Context

Inter Milan have wrapped up the Serie A title with a staggering 86 points from 37 games – W27 D5 L5, goal difference of +54, and 86 goals scored. They’ve hit five or more goals in games this season and their last ten records W5 D4 L1. They’re coming off a draw with Hellas Verona last week – the only dip in an otherwise emphatic title run-in.

Bologna sit 8th on 55 points and have actually finished the season well – wins over Napoli away and Atalanta away in their last two is impressive form for a mid-table side. Their last ten shows W5 D1 L4, but those four losses came against genuinely quality sides. They’re not going to roll over.

Key Stats

The Statz projections back Inter clearly – 1.71 expected goals to Bologna’s 1.06. Inter generate 12.9 shots per game with 4.4 on target against Bologna’s 10.34 shots and 3.02 on target. Inter’s shot output quality is significantly higher, and their ability to convert chances throughout the season (86 goals) speaks for itself.

Referee Kevin Bonacina oversees this one, averaging 3.55 yellow cards and 26.09 fouls per game across his 11 Serie A matches this season. That’s a significant foul count – expect this to be a physically contested game, which may suit Inter’s technically superior squad.

Player Callouts

Lautaro Martinez is the man. The Inter captain projects at 0.45 goals with 2.41 shots and 1.01 on target per game. He has hit 1+ shots on target in every single one of his last five games – a 100% hit rate that’s hard to ignore. He draws 1.37 fouls per game too, meaning even when he’s not scoring he’s contributing.

Riccardo Orsolini gives Bologna a threat going the other way – 0.30 projected goals, 2.33 shots per game, 0.77 on target. He’s Bologna’s most dangerous attacker and has the quality to make Inter work. Against even the best defences, he generates chances.

Hakan Calhanoglu is Inter’s engine. He averages 1.83 shots per game with 0.66 on target and a 0.26 projected goals figure. He has taken 1+ shots in all five of his last five games at a 100% clip – and that includes a game where he racked up six attempts in a single match.

Betting Angles

Inter to win – The quality gap is vast. 86 points vs 55, +54 goal difference vs +3, 1.71 projected goals vs 1.06. This is the clearest steer of any of the weekend previews.

Lautaro Martinez 1+ shots on target – 100% hit rate in the last five, 1.01 projected on target, 63.6% projected probability. The boylesports price of 2.20 represents excellent value against what should be a near-certainty.

Bet Builder at 3.41 (bet365): Lautaro Martinez 1+ shots on target (100% last 5), Calhanoglu 1+ shots (100% last 5, averaged 2.8 per game), Federico Bernardeschi 2+ shots (100% last 5), Martin Vitik 2+ tackles (100% last 5, averaged 3.8 per game). All four legs carry a 100% hit rate over the last five – full data on the Bologna vs Inter H2H page.

Verdict

Inter win. It’s not complicated. Champions with 86 points, the best attack in Serie A, visiting a side that’s decent but firmly mid-table. The 1.71 projected goal tally against Bologna’s 1.06 makes Inter the clear pick. Back the visitors and target the Lautaro shots on target for a reliable single in the buildup. Referee Bonacina adds the foul count angle too – 26 fouls per game means cards will flow.