Girona vs Mallorca Predictions and Betting Tips – La Liga
30th April 2026
Two sides scrapping near the bottom of La Liga meet on Friday night in Girona. Neither is safe, neither is in great form, and Statz projects this one closer than the table suggests. KO 19:00 BST.
Form
Girona sit 15th on 38 points (W9 D11 L13, GD -14). Last ten: WDLDWLWDLL – three wins, three draws, four losses, 14 scored, 13 conceded. Inconsistent is the word.
Mallorca are 17th on 35 points (W9 D8 L16, GD -10). Last ten: LLLDWLWWDL – three wins, two draws, five losses, 13 scored, 14 conceded. A similar story – neither side can string results together.
Predicted Lineups
Girona: Paulo Gazzaniga; Arnau Martinez, Vitor Reis, Alejandro Frances, Daley Blind; Ivan Martin, Axel Witsel, Azzedine Ounahi; Viktor Tsygankov, Thomas Lemar; Claudio Echeverri
Mallorca: Leo Roman; Pablo Maffeo, Martin Valjent, David Lopez, Johan Mojica; Omar Mascarell, Samu Costa; Jan Virgili, Pablo Torre, Sergi Darder; Vedat Muriqi
Statz Projections
Statz projects Girona 1.65 – 1.16 Mallorca. Girona win probability: 47.01%. Draw: 26.62%. Mallorca win: 26.38%. Remarkably close in terms of the win markets – less than 21 percentage points separating the two outcomes at either end.
BTTS comes in at 55.58% and over 2.5 at 53.42%. Goals are more likely than not in this one. Vedat Muriqi leads Mallorca’s projection at 0.55 expected goals – the most dangerous player on the pitch by the numbers.
Fouls to Watch
No referee has been assigned yet for this one. Keep an eye on the Statz H2H page as we get closer to kickoff – referee data will update once confirmed. Vitor Reis leads Girona for fouls (14 in the last ten, 1.40/game), while Samu Costa tops Mallorca’s chart with 19 fouls (1.90/game).
Bet Builder
Four legs to consider here, but two come with a lineup caveat. Check the Statz Bet Builder tool before placing.
- Jan Virgili 1+ shots on target – 80% hit rate last 5 (1, 2, 1, 0, 1 – avg 1.0). Confirmed in lineup. Bet365: 1.62
- Martin Valjent 1+ tackles – 80% hit rate last 5 (3, 2, 1, 0, 1 – avg 1.4). Confirmed in lineup. Bet365: 1.40
- Antonio Raillo 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate last 5 (1, 3, 1, 1, 1 – avg 1.4). Bet365: 1.40. Flag: Raillo is NOT in the predicted lineup – check lineup before adding this leg.
- Manu Morlanes 1+ shots – 80% hit rate last 5 (1, 1, 1, 2, 0 – avg 1.0). Bet365: 1.53. Flag: Morlanes is NOT in the predicted lineup – check lineup before adding this leg.
The two confirmed legs (Virgili + Valjent) combine at around 2.27. If Raillo and Morlanes start, the four-leg parlay comes to 4.86 @ bet365. Worth checking the H2H page lineup tab before placing.
The Angle
BTTS at 55.58% is worth a look given how open both sides have been defensively. Girona are slight favourites at home but only just – Mallorca win probability is 26.38%, almost matching the draw at 26.62%. This feels like a BTTS game more than a clean win for either side. Check the H2H page for referee assignment before kickoff – it will affect the card market significantly.
Full match data and projections available at statz.ai.