Leeds United vs Burnley Predictions and Betting Tips – Premier League
30th April 2026
Friday night football at Elland Road – and Burnley are coming to town with one win in their last ten. Statz gives Leeds a 71% chance of winning this one, and with Burnley 19th on 20 points all season, it’s hard to argue. KO 19:00 BST.
Form
Leeds are 15th on 40 points (W9 D13 L12, GD -7), which is a fairly uninspiring season all told – but their last ten reads WDDLLDDWWD. Three wins, five draws, two losses, 13 scored, 9 conceded. Solid enough at home.
Burnley are in freefall. 19th on 20 points (W4 D8 L22, GD -34), and their last ten? LWDLLDLLLL. One win, two draws, seven losses, 9 scored, 21 conceded. That’s relegation form in flashing red lights.
Predicted Lineups
Leeds: Karl Darlow; Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Jaka Bijol, Pascal Struijk, Ethan Ampadu, James Justin, Ao Tanaka, Brenden Aaronson, Noah Okafor; Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Burnley: Martin Dubravka; Kyle Walker, Maxime Esteve, Hjalmar Ekdal, Bashir Humphreys, Quilindschy Hartman, Josh Laurent, James Ward-Prowse, Zian Flemming, Loum Tchaouna; Jaidon Anthony
Statz Projections
Statz projects Leeds 2.47 – 0.86 Burnley. Leeds win probability sits at 71.09%, draw 17.92%, Burnley win just 10.99%. BTTS comes in at 52.79% and over 2.5 goals at 64.55%.
Top scorer projections: Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads for Leeds at 0.70 expected goals. Zian Flemming leads Burnley at just 0.31 – slim pickings for the visitors.
Referee: Thomas Bramall
Thomas Bramall takes charge. Over 20 games, he averages 4.25 yellows and 21.60 fouls per game – bang in the middle of the range. Not a card-happy ref but not lenient either. Worth noting: Jayden Bogle leads Leeds for fouls in the last ten with 15 (1.50/game), while Flemming tops the Burnley chart with 21 fouls (2.10/game).
Bet Builder
All four legs confirmed in the predicted lineup. Built on the Statz Bet Builder tool.
- Maxime Esteve 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate last 5 (1, 4, 2, 1, 1 – avg 1.8). Bet365: 1.40
- Zian Flemming 2+ fouls – 100% hit rate last 5 (2, 4, 3, 2, 3 – avg 2.8). Bet365: 1.73
- Jaidon Anthony 1+ shots on target – 80% hit rate last 5 (1, 0, 1, 1, 1 – avg 0.8). Bet365: 1.91
- Ao Tanaka 1+ shots – 80% hit rate last 5 (2, 0, 1, 1, 1 – avg 1.0). Bet365: 1.14
Combined: 5.27 @ bet365. Flemming’s foul record is the standout here – 2.10 per game in the last ten, and he’s managed 2+ fouls in every one of the last five. That leg alone looks solid.
The Angle
Burnley have shipped 21 goals in their last ten away from home. Leeds at 71% win probability, over 2.5 at 64.55% – both make sense given the gulf between these sides. The bet builder at 5.27 is where the real value sits. All four legs in the predicted lineup, two at 100% hit rate over the last five games. Solid Friday night pick.
Full match data and projections available at statz.ai.