Pisa vs Lecce Predictions and Betting Tips – Serie A

30th April 2026

This is the one that matters most on Friday night. Pisa vs Lecce is a relegation six-pointer in Serie A – and the loser is almost certainly going down. Pisa are bottom. Lecce are 17th. KO 18:45 BST.

The Stakes

Pisa are rock bottom on 18 points (W2 D12 L20, GD -37). One win in their last ten – LLLLWLLLLL. It’s desperate. Lecce are 17th on 29 points with a last ten of WLLWLLLLDD. Not great either, but a world apart from Pisa’s situation.

Lecce come into this with more to play for in a relative sense – they can pull away from the drop zone with a win. Pisa need points or the season is effectively over.

Predicted Lineups

Pisa: Adrian Semper; Simone Canestrelli, Antonio Caracciolo, Rosen Bozhinov, Samuele Angori, Mehdi Leris; Michel Aebischer, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Isak Vural; Stefano Moreo, Filip Stojilkovic

Lecce: Wladimiro Falcone; Danilo Veiga, Gaby Jean, Jamil Siebert, Antonino Gallo; Lassana Coulibaly, Ylber Ramadani; Santiago Pierotti, Omri Gandelman, Lameck Banda; Nikola Stulic

Statz Projections

Statz projects Pisa 1.09 – 1.02 Lecce – about as close as it gets. Pisa win probability: 35.26%. Draw: 32.59%. Lecce win: 32.14%. Three-way split within 3 percentage points. This is essentially a coin toss with a slight lean to the home side.

BTTS is 42.42%, over 2.5 just 35.29%. Low-scoring is the more likely outcome here – the pressure of relegation tends to tighten games up. Filip Stojilkovic leads Pisa’s projection at 0.99 expected goals – the most dangerous player in this match by some distance.

Referee: Marco Guida

Marco Guida is in charge. Over 15 games he averages 4.13 yellows, 0.27 reds, and 24.80 fouls per game. High foul count – and this fixture has the ingredients for a tense, physical game. Simone Canestrelli leads Pisa for fouls (16 in the last ten, 1.60/game), while Danilo Veiga tops Lecce’s chart with 20 fouls (2.00/game). Card market could be live here.

Bet Builder

Three confirmed legs only – two players with 100% hit rates (Alex Sala and Francesco Coppola) are not in the predicted lineup and have been left out. Check the Statz Bet Builder tool for full player data.

Aebischer and Pierotti are the two clean ones here – both 100% last five, both confirmed starting. The combined for those two alone is worth noting. Add Stojilkovic at the right price and this becomes a strong three-leg builder.

The Angle

This is too close to call in the win markets – genuinely. Statz has it as a three-way split within 3 percentage points. The bet builder is where the value sits, not the match result. Both top-rated legs (Aebischer and Pierotti) are 100% last five. Under 2.5 at 64.71% implied is worth considering given the tension and the projected 1.09 – 1.02 scoreline. Guida’s foul average of 24.80 suggests there will be yellows – Veiga and Canestrelli are both in the mix.

Full match data and projections available at statz.ai.