Brighton vs Manchester United Predictions and Betting Tips
22nd May 2026
Brighton host Manchester United at the Amex on the final day, and this is a proper clash. Brighton sit 7th on 53 points with six wins in their last ten – they’ve been electric at home, beating Liverpool and Wolves 3-0 in recent weeks. United are 3rd on 68 points, locked in a top-four battle and riding a strong run of their own with six wins and two draws from ten. Something has to give, and the data says this should be an entertaining afternoon.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Predicted XIs from the Statz H2H page:
Lineups not yet confirmed – check the H2H page closer to kickoff for the latest team news.
Key Stats
Danny Welbeck is Brighton’s top projected scorer at 0.41 goals per game, firing 1.97 shots with 0.87 on target per match. The veteran is still delivering at this level. Jack Hinshelwood has been brilliant too – 1.72 shots per game with 0.23 projected goals. For United, Benjamin Sesko leads the line at 0.38 goals per game with a whopping 1.07 SOT average, while Matheus Cunha projects at 2.11 shots per game with 0.73 on target. Bruno Fernandes remains the creative hub – 1.70 shots and 0.30 assists per game.
Brighton have won 6 of 10 recently (WLWWWDWLWL), scoring 16 and conceding 9. United’s form reads WLWDLWWWDW – 18 scored, 13 conceded. United have been leakier, which Brighton will look to exploit at home. Full stats on the H2H page and Premier League projections.
Statz Projections
The model gives Brighton the edge at home. Projected scoreline: Brighton 1.65 – 1.32 Man Utd. Brighton are projected for 13.20 shots (4.47 on target) vs United’s 10.95 (3.71 on target). Corners favour the Seagulls too at 4.88 to 3.88. United project slightly higher on fouls (8.61 vs 9.10) and yellows (1.68 vs 1.40). Both defences look penetrable on paper, so goals feel likely here.
Referee
Samuel Barrott has the whistle. Across 23 Premier League games this season, Barrott averages 3.87 yellows, 0.04 reds, and 19.35 fouls per game. A fairly standard card-happy ref in an intense fixture – expect a few going into the book.
Bet Builder Angles
Four legs flagged from the Statz Bet Builder Tool. No combined price available as legs span both teams, so take them individually or mix and match:
Matheus Cunha 1+ SOT – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2). Averaging 1.20 SOT in that run. Cunha has been on fire and loves a pop at goal. Best odds: 3.00 (Boylesports).
Lisandro Martinez 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 3, 2, 1, 3, 2). Averaging 2.20 tackles – the Argentine is a proper enforcer. Best odds: 1.80 (Boylesports).
Luke Shaw 1+ fouls – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 4, 2, 1, 1, 1). Ranks 11th in the PL for fouls this season. Shaw gets stuck in and this will be a physical battle. Best odds: 1.40 (Ladbrokes).
Danny Welbeck 1+ SOT – 80% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 1, 2, 0, 1, 3). Averaging 1.40 SOT across that run. Brighton’s main man tends to test the keeper. Best odds: 2.00 (Boylesports).
Verdict
Brighton at home have been outstanding recently and the projections back them to shade this. United won’t roll over – they need the points for top four – but the Seagulls’ shot volume and home advantage tip the balance. This feels like a game with goals at both ends. Brighton to edge it, and Cunha’s 1+ SOT at 3.00 looks the standout individual angle from the builder.