Sunderland vs Chelsea Predictions and Betting Tips
22nd May 2026
Sunderland round off their first season back in the top flight by hosting Chelsea at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats sit a solid 10th on 51 points – a very decent return for a promoted side. Chelsea, though, have had a shocker recently. 8th on 52 points and just two wins in their last ten is relegation form by their standards. Seven defeats from ten tells you everything about where Chelsea’s season has gone – and Sunderland will fancy their chances of ending the campaign on a high.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Predicted XIs from the Statz H2H page:
Lineups not yet confirmed – check the H2H page closer to kickoff for the latest team news.
Key Stats
Chelsea still have individual quality, even if the collective hasn’t been working. Joao Pedro is the top projected scorer at 0.44 goals per game with 2.15 shots and 0.74 SOT per match. Cole Palmer projects at 2.21 shots and 0.94 SOT per game – he’s still Chelsea’s most dangerous player when he’s on it. Estevao chips in at 2.17 shots per game too. For Sunderland, Brian Brobbey leads the line at 0.27 goals per game, while Habib Diarra (0.21 goals, 1.16 shots/game) and Enzo Le Fee (0.18 goals, 2.16 tackles/game) run the midfield.
Sunderland’s form reads DWLWWLLDDW – 12 scored, 14 conceded from 10. Not spectacular, but solid enough with four wins and three draws. Chelsea’s LWLLLLLLDW is borderline catastrophic – 9 scored and 19 conceded. They’ve been battered by Brighton, Forest, and City in recent weeks. Full data on the H2H page and Premier League projections.
Statz Projections
Despite Chelsea’s awful form, the model still gives them the edge on raw numbers. Projected scoreline: Sunderland 1.25 – 1.61 Chelsea. Chelsea project for 12.15 shots (3.99 on target) vs Sunderland’s 10.06 (3.46 on target). Corners favour Chelsea at 4.39 to 3.66. The card count is where it gets spicy – Chelsea project for 2.21 yellows and 9.77 fouls, while Sunderland project for 1.77 yellows and 9.38 fouls. This should be a feisty one.
Referee
Chris Kavanagh is in the middle for this one. Across 28 games this season, Kavanagh averages 4.14 yellows, 0.07 reds, and 22.25 fouls per game. He’s one of the busiest referees in the league for cards, and with two sides who project for nearly 4 combined yellows before you even factor in the ref, the card markets look interesting here.
Bet Builder Angles
Three legs from the Statz Bet Builder Tool:
Marc Cucurella 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 3, 2, 1, 2, 1). Averaging 1.80 tackles per game in that stretch. Ranks 51st of 439 PL players for tackles this season. Best odds: 1.44 (Boylesports).
Jorrel Hato 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 1, 1, 4, 4, 2). Averaging 2.40 tackles across that run – the young defender has been getting stuck in. Best odds: 1.57 (Boylesports).
Granit Xhaka 1+ shots – 80% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 0, 1, 1, 2, 1). Averaging 1.00 shots per game. The veteran midfielder likes to get involved going forward. Best odds: 3.50 (Boylesports).
Combined price: 7.91 (Boylesports). The two tackle legs look really strong, while the Xhaka shot adds the value punch.
Verdict
Chelsea’s form is abysmal and Sunderland have the home crowd behind them on the final day. The model backs Chelsea on talent, but seven defeats in ten doesn’t lie. This feels like a game where Sunderland can get at Chelsea’s fragile confidence. The 7.91 builder is worth a look – two tackle legs with perfect recent form at the core, and Xhaka’s shot offers a nice kicker. Don’t rule out a Sunderland upset here.