Parma vs Sassuolo Predictions and Betting Tips
22nd May 2026
A proper Serie A scrap between two sides who’ve had seasons to forget in patches. Parma are 13th on 42 points and have been on a grim run – three losses on the bounce heading into the final day. Sassuolo sit 11th on 49 points but they’re hardly flying either, losing two of their last three. Something’s got to give at the Tardini. Let’s see what the Statz H2H data says.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Predicted XIs from the Statz H2H page:
Lineups not yet confirmed – check the H2H page closer to kickoff. Predicted lineups currently show 11-a-side for both teams, with Mateo Pellegrino leading the line for Parma and M’Bala Nzola and Domenico Berardi spearheading Sassuolo’s attack.
Key Stats
Pellegrino is Parma’s main man – projected 0.35 goals per game with 2.16 shots and 0.78 SOT. He’s also a foul magnet, drawing 1.72 fouls per game and committing 2.13. Gabriel Strefezza is another live one with 1.99 shots per game and a league-high 2.04 fouls drawn per game.
For Sassuolo, Andrea Pinamonti is the sharpest finisher – 0.34 goals projected with 2.19 shots per game. Armand Lauriente brings chaos wherever he goes – 2.09 shots, 1.35 fouls committed, and 0.31 assists per game. Kristian Thorstvedt pops up with 1.54 shots per game from midfield and draws 1.50 fouls – he’s a card machine for opponents.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections slightly favour the visitors:
- Projected score: Parma 1.14 – 1.28 Sassuolo
- Shots: Parma 11.39 – 10.96 Sassuolo
- Shots on target: Parma 3.48 – 3.59 Sassuolo
- Corners: Parma 4.06 – 3.43 Sassuolo
- Fouls: Parma 10.16 – 12.09 Sassuolo
- Yellow cards: Parma 1.58 – 2.03 Sassuolo
This is a card-heavy fixture on paper. Combined projected yellows of 3.61 is tasty. Sassuolo’s fouling numbers are through the roof at 12.09 per game.
Referee
Referee not yet confirmed for this fixture. Check the H2H page closer to kickoff for the official appointment.
Bet Builder Angles
The Statz Bet Builder has a tidy 3-leg combo at 2.20 (bet365):
- Armand Lauriente 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (avg 1.4 tackles/game). Best odds: 1.57 (bet365).
- Andrea Pinamonti 2+ shots – 80% hit rate in his last 5 (avg 2.6 shots/game). Best odds: 1.53 (Ladbrokes).
- M’Bala Nzola 2+ shots – 80% hit rate in his last 5 (avg 1.8 shots/game). Best odds: 1.67 (Ladbrokes).
Combined price: 2.20 (bet365). It’s on the shorter side but the hit rates are strong and these players are involved in everything going forward for Sassuolo.
Verdict
Two sides limping to the finish line but Sassuolo have the slightly better squad and the projections back them. Parma have been dire recently – three straight defeats and just 7 goals in 10 games. Sassuolo commit fouls for fun so expect cards, and with both attacks projected to score, BTTS is the angle. The bet builder at 2.20 is a nice low-risk play to round off the Serie A season.