West Ham vs Leeds Predictions and Betting Tips
22nd May 2026
It’s the final day of the Premier League season and West Ham are staring down the barrel. Sitting 18th on 36 points, the Hammers need something from this one or they could be waving goodbye to the top flight. Leeds, comfortably mid-table in 14th on 47 points, arrive in east London with nothing to play for but pride – and that can be a dangerous thing. Let’s dig into the Statz H2H data and find the angles.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Predicted XIs from the Statz H2H page:
Lineups not yet confirmed – check the H2H page closer to kickoff for the latest team news.
Key Stats
The big story for West Ham is Taty Castellanos – projected 2.77 shots per game with 1.08 of those on target. He’s the Hammers’ main threat and their top projected scorer at 0.32 goals per game. Crysencio Summerville chips in with 1.94 shots per game and draws a whopping 1.86 fouls per game – he’s a nuisance.
For Leeds, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the danger man – projected 0.44 goals per game, the highest of anyone in this fixture. He averages 1.76 shots and 0.88 SOT per game. Anton Stach is a monster in midfield with 2.00 tackles and 1.65 shots per game – he gets everywhere. Mateus Fernandes leads West Ham’s foul count with 1.80 per game over the last 10, so expect him to be busy.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections have this one tight:
- Projected score: West Ham 1.49 – 1.32 Leeds
- Shots: West Ham 11.88 – 10.97 Leeds
- Shots on target: West Ham 3.88 – 3.65 Leeds
- Corners: West Ham 4.90 – 3.84 Leeds
- Fouls: West Ham 9.40 – 8.60 Leeds
- Yellow cards: West Ham 1.48 – 1.53 Leeds
Not much separating them on paper. West Ham have a slight edge on shots and corners at home, but Leeds are marginally more disciplined.
Referee
Referee not yet confirmed for this fixture. Check the H2H page closer to kickoff for the official appointment.
Bet Builder Angles
The Statz Bet Builder has pulled out a cracking 3-leg combo at 6.16 (BoyleSports):
- Taty Castellanos 1+ shots on target – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (avg 1.8 SOT/game). Best odds: 2.20 (BoyleSports).
- Anton Stach 1+ shots – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (avg 2.6 shots/game). Best odds: 2.00 (BoyleSports).
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (avg 1.2 tackles/game). Best odds: 1.40 (BoyleSports).
Combined price: 6.16 (BoyleSports). All three legs have hit in every one of the last 5 games – that’s as solid a foundation as you’ll find for a bet builder.
Verdict
West Ham are desperate but dire – three straight losses and a GD of -22 tells you everything. Leeds have been quietly solid, unbeaten in their last three (W2 D1) and only conceding 7 in 10. The projections say this is close, and that feels right. Don’t be shocked if Calvert-Lewin spoils the party. Both teams to score looks the play here, with the bet builder offering real value at over 6/1.