AC Milan vs Cagliari Predictions and Betting Tips
22nd May 2026
The final day of the Serie A season and AC Milan are looking to lock down that top-three finish. Sitting 3rd on 70 points with a +19 goal difference, the Rossoneri host Cagliari – who are just about safe in 16th on 40 points. Milan’s form has been all over the shop though, winning just 4 of their last 10, including losses to Sassuolo and Atalanta at the San Siro. Cagliari won’t be pushovers – they beat Torino 2-1 last weekend – but this should be Milan’s game to lose.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Predicted XIs from the Statz H2H page:
Lineups not yet confirmed – check the H2H page closer to kickoff for the latest team news.
Key Stats
Christopher Nkunku is Milan’s top projected goalscorer at 0.57 goals per game – he’s the main man up front. Rafael Leao is projected for 2.84 shots per game with 1.06 on target, making him the most threatening attacker for volume. Christian Pulisic chips in with 0.93 SOT per game – plenty of firepower.
For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito leads the line with 0.16 projected goals per game and 0.47 SOT. Gennaro Borrelli is one to watch for fouls – projected at 1.82 per game and draws 1.88 fouls himself. A proper nuisance.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections paint a clear picture here. Milan are expected to dominate with a projected scoreline of 1.94 – 0.79.
- Shots: AC Milan 15.75 – 7.56 Cagliari
- Shots on target: AC Milan 5.05 – 2.48 Cagliari
- Corners: AC Milan 4.24 – 3.13 Cagliari
- Fouls: AC Milan 10.43 – 11.02 Cagliari
- Yellow cards: AC Milan 1.29 – 2.21 Cagliari
Milan should control possession and territory. Cagliari are projected for more fouls and yellows – they’ll need to be scrappy to stay in this.
Referee
Marco Guida takes charge. Across 15 Serie A games this season he’s averaging 4.13 yellows and 24.80 fouls per game – he lets things flow a bit but isn’t shy with the cards. Expect a few bookings, especially from the Cagliari side.
Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz Bet Builder for the full breakdown. Here’s our four-leg builder at combined odds of 4.86:
- Alessandro Deiola 1+ shots (1.65 – Ladbrokes) – 100% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 2.0 shots per game
- Michael Folorunsho 1+ shots (1.40 – Ladbrokes) – 100% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 2.2 shots per game
- Sebastiano Esposito 1+ SOT (2.17 – Stake) – 80% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 0.8 SOT per game
- Matteo Gabbia 1+ fouls (1.50 – Midnite) – 80% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 1.4 fouls per game
Plenty of Cagliari involvement here which makes sense – they’ll be fighting for every ball at the San Siro.
Verdict
Milan need the points and they’re at home – this should be fairly comfortable even if their recent form hasn’t been convincing. Nkunku and Leao have the quality to break down a Cagliari side that’s leaked 52 goals this season. The bet builder leans heavily on Cagliari’s scrappiness, and that’s where the value sits.