Hellas Verona vs Roma Predictions and Betting Tips
22nd May 2026
Rock bottom meets top four on the final day of the Serie A season. Hellas Verona are 19th on just 21 points – already relegated and having won just once in their last 10. Roma, by contrast, are flying. Sitting 4th on 70 points, the Giallorossi have won 6 of their last 10 including a 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina and a 2-0 win over Lazio. This looks like men against boys on paper, but Verona at home in a dead rubber can be tricky.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Predicted XIs from the Statz H2H page:
Lineups not yet confirmed – check the H2H page closer to kickoff for the latest team news.
Key Stats
Donyell Malen has been absolutely lethal – projected for 0.69 goals per game with a huge 3.53 shots and 1.46 SOT per game. Those numbers are elite. Paulo Dybala adds 1.94 shots per game and leads the team with 0.52 projected assists – he’s the creative hub.
For Verona, Gift Orban is the main threat at 0.30 projected goals per game with 2.22 shots. Kieron Bowie is Verona’s biggest fouler at 2.28 per game – he’s been involved in the physical side of things all season long.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections are one-sided. Roma projected to win 1.77 – 0.77.
- Shots: Hellas Verona 8.21 – 13.10 Roma
- Shots on target: Hellas Verona 2.75 – 4.37 Roma
- Corners: Hellas Verona 3.75 – 3.73 Roma
- Fouls: Hellas Verona 14.00 – 10.55 Roma
- Yellow cards: Hellas Verona 1.70 – 1.42 Roma
Verona are projected for 14 fouls per game – that’s a lot of hacking. Roma dominate on shots and SOT but corners are virtually identical. Expect Verona to pick up cards trying to contain Malen and Dybala.
Referee
Simone Sozza is the man in the middle. Across 16 Serie A games this season he’s averaging 3.69 yellows and 25.63 fouls per game. He’s not the most card-happy official but with 14 projected fouls from Verona alone, there should be bookings flying around.
Bet Builder Angles
The Statz Bet Builder serves up a four-leg builder at combined odds of 5.18:
- Gift Orban 2+ shots (1.50 – bet365) – 100% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 3.2 shots per game. The lad can’t stop shooting.
- Martin Frese 3+ tackles (1.57 – bet365) – 100% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 4.6 tackles per game. Ranked 8th in Serie A for tackles this season.
- Kieron Bowie 2+ fouls (1.40 – bet365) – 100% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 2.8 fouls per game. Ranked 87th of 471 players in the league for fouls.
- Mario Hermoso 1+ shots (1.70 – Coral) – 80% hit rate in his last 5, averaging 2.0 shots per game
Three legs at 100% hit rate with Verona’s physicality baked in. Frese’s tackles line at 3+ is particularly tasty given his season-long numbers.
Verdict
Roma are finishing the season in blistering form – 4 wins on the bounce including results against Fiorentina, Parma, and Lazio. Verona are already down and have scored just 5 goals in their last 10. Malen and Dybala should have a field day, but the bet builder angles around Verona’s physicality are where the real value sits. Frese at 3+ tackles is the banker leg.