Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Tips and Preview – La Liga 2026
22nd May 2026
This is one of those fixtures that looks dull on paper but the data says otherwise. Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano brings together two sides who have both found form at exactly the right time – and the projections suggest a game with teeth.
Match Context
Deportivo Alaves head into the final round in 13th on 43 points, and they’ve been in excellent form. Their last ten games produce a W4 D4 L2 record – including a stunning 1-0 home win over Barcelona just weeks ago. Last five reads WWDLW. They’re not safe from any threat but they’ve finished this campaign strongly.
Rayo Vallecano sit 8th on 47 points – their best finish in recent memory – and have been a legitimate nuisance all season. W4 D4 L2 in their last ten, their last five goes WDDWD showing they know how to grind out results away from home. Rayo head into this one with genuine confidence.
Key Stats
Statz projections give Alaves a slight edge at home – 1.48 projected goals vs 1.21 for Rayo. The hosts generate 11.97 shots per game with 3.95 on target, while Rayo produce 10.21 shots and 3.34 on target. The gap is slim, and that’s reflected in how close their form lines are across the season.
This could be a game with a good number of cards – Alaves commit 14 fouls per game and Antonio Blanco leads the way with 21 fouls across the last ten at 2.1 per game. Rayo commit 13.9 per game and average 2.83 yellow cards. Expect the referee to be busy.
Player Callouts
Lucas Boye is Alaves’s top projected scorer at 0.56 goals with 2.59 shots and 0.95 on target per game. The Argentine has 1.91 fouls drawn per 90 too, making him a handful from open play. He’s been involved in goals consistently across recent weeks and is the focal point of the Alaves attack.
Toni Martinez sits right behind him with 0.50 projected goals, averaging 2.78 shots per game – the highest volume striker at this fixture. He hits 1.11 on target per 90 and has registered shots on target in four of the last five. He’s the more reliable of the two from a bet builder perspective.
Alexandre Zurawski is Rayo’s main threat with 0.31 projected goals, 1.17 shots and 0.59 on target per game. He draws 1.58 fouls per game, showing he’s making defenders work. He’s the one who can catch the Alaves backline on a bad night.
Betting Angles
Both teams to score – Alaves scored in nine of their last ten, Rayo in eight. Both project to score here and the 1.48-1.21 line suggests goals are coming from both ends.
Toni Martinez 1+ shots on target – 80% hit rate in the last five, 1.11 projected per game against a Rayo side that concedes chances regularly. Solid leg for a bet builder.
Bet Builder – Statz pick: Sergio Camello 1+ shots on target (100% hit rate last 5 at Ladbrokes 1.70), Oscar Trejo 2+ tackles (100% hit rate, 2.00 at bet365), Toni Martinez 1+ shots on target (80%), Nahuel Tenaglia 1+ shots (80%). All projections sourced from Statz Alaves vs Rayo H2H.
Verdict
This is the tightest of the three La Liga previews but Alaves at home gets the slight edge. Their recent form is excellent – beating Barcelona and Oviedo in their last two – and the 1.48 projection says they’re the better side in this matchup. Lean Alaves, but respect the draw option. BTTS is the safer, data-backed play.