Napoli vs Cremonese Predictions & Betting Tips | Serie A Friday 24 April 2026

24th April 2026

Napoli have a Champions League spot to secure and a struggling Cremonese side standing in their way on Friday evening. On paper, this looks straightforward – but football doesn’t do straightforward, does it. Here’s what the data says.

Match Context

Napoli sit 3rd in Serie A on 66 points (W20 D6 L7, GD +15). The title race is likely out of reach but a top-three finish is very much alive, and that gives this one genuine edge. Their form over the last ten games reads WDLWWWWWDL – six wins, two draws, two defeats. Solid, if not completely consistent.

Cremonese are in a different battle entirely. 17th in the table on just 28 points (W6 D10 L17, GD -21), their last ten games tell an ugly story: LDLLLLWLLD – one win, two draws, seven defeats. They’ve shipped 16 goals in those ten games and scored just six. This is a side running on fumes.

Key Stats and Projections

The Statz projections have Napoli winning this comfortably – a projected scoreline of 1.88 to 0.69 in favour of the hosts. Scott McTominay leads the expected goal contributions for Napoli at 0.52, while Federico Bonazzoli is Cremonese’s best hope at a projected 0.21. The market puts Napoli at a 63.99% chance of winning, with the draw at 20.47% and an away win at just 15.54%.

Over 2.5 goals lands at around 52% probability – slightly above the coin flip. BTTS sits lower at roughly 42%, which tells you the model expects Napoli to score but isn’t convinced Cremonese will find a way through. That’s backed up by the defensive record: Cremonese have conceded 16 in their last ten outings.

Referee Daniele Doveri takes charge of this one. He averages 24.25 fouls per game across 16 matches this season, handing out 3.56 yellows and 0.13 reds per game. That’s a fairly active whistle – relevant when you look at the bet builder legs below.

In terms of fouls, Alessandro Buongiorno leads Napoli’s last ten games with 18 (1.80 per game), while Youssef Maleh tops the Cremonese chart with 21 (2.10 per game). Two players worth tracking given Doveri’s tendency to book.

Betting Angles

Napoli to win is the headline play here. At 63.99% model probability, there’s a reason they’re favourites. Six wins in their last ten and a home fixture against a side deep in relegation trouble points in one direction.

Over 2.5 goals at 52% is interesting – there’s some value if the market is underestimating how open Cremonese are at the back. Napoli projected at 1.88 goals alone puts this well within range. Check the H2H page for the full breakdown before you pull the trigger.

BTTS at around 42% is on the lower side. Cremonese’s attack has been misfiring – one goal every other game in their last ten – so laying BTTS or siding against it has logic behind it.

Bet Builder – 4 Legs @ 8.15

Built using the Statz Bet Builder Tool on a stats-purist theme, here are four legs that hold up on hit rate over the last five games:

Combined price on bet365: 8.15

The fouls legs are the backbone here. Maleh and Buongiorno have both hit 2+ fouls in every one of their last five games – that’s about as consistent as it gets in player prop markets. Bonazzoli and Thorsby add a shot-based angle, both sitting at 80% over five games. Solid foundation for a bet builder on a referee who keeps a busy card.

Add all 4 legs to your bet365 betslip here.

Summary

Napoli are the clear favourites and the data backs that up. A projected scoreline of 1.88-0.69, six wins in ten, and a home crowd in a match that matters for the top three. Cremonese arrive with one win in their last ten and a defence that’s been leaking goals. The bet builder at 8.15 is where the real interest lies – fouls from Maleh and Buongiorno have been remarkably consistent, and Doveri’s refereeing profile fits the angle perfectly. Use the full H2H breakdown on Statz to do your own digging before kick-off at 18:45 BST.