RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Predictions – Bundesliga Betting Tips & Best Bets

24th April 2026

Union Berlin are in freefall. The visitors have won just two of their last ten Bundesliga games – losing six – and arrive at Red Bull Arena having conceded 19 goals in that stretch. RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have been relentless: seven wins from their last ten, conceding just ten. Friday evening’s 18:30 kickoff looks like exactly the kind of fixture the Saxons thrive in.

Match Context

Leipzig sit 3rd in the Bundesliga table on 59 points (W18 D5 L7, GD +22). They’re in the mix for European football and this is a fixture they simply cannot afford to drop. Union Berlin are 11th on 32 points (W8 D8 L14, GD -18) – a squad that has looked out of ideas for much of the second half of the season.

Leipzig’s recent form reads WDDWWLWWWW – that’s seven wins, two draws and one defeat in their last ten. Union’s return? DLWLLWLDLL. Two wins, two draws, and six losses. The gap in quality is stark, and it’s backed up by the numbers.

Check out the full head-to-head breakdown on Statz for lineups, projections and more.

Key Stats and Projections

Statz Bundesliga projections have Leipzig’s expected scoreline at 2.39 goals to Union Berlin’s 0.93. That’s a significant gap – Leipzig are expected to dominate proceedings and the model gives them a 68.23% chance of taking all three points.

Christoph Baumgartner is Leipzig’s top projected goalscorer at 0.52 – he’s also their most prolific fouler over the last ten games with 20 committed (2.00 per game). He’s involved everywhere. For Union, Andrej Ilic leads their attacking threat with a projected 0.18 – modest, but he’s been consistent in front of goal lately. Rani Khedira is Union’s top fouler with 18 committed in ten games (1.80 per game).

Referee Sven Jablonski takes charge – he averages 22.00 fouls and 3.33 yellows per game across 15 appearances this season. With two physically committed sides, cards are in play.

Over 2.5 goals sits at around 65% probability. BTTS is roughly 55% – possible, but Union’s defensive struggles make it a harder case to push. The cleaner angle here is Leipzig winning and goals flowing.

Betting Angles

The market has Leipzig at 68.23% to win – that’s a strong implied probability for a side in this kind of form against a team as poor as Union right now. Leipzig have scored 21 goals in their last ten games; Union have conceded 19 in the same period. Over 2.5 goals at ~65% looks like the kind of market that’s there to be taken.

If you want to go bigger, the BTTS angle is worth considering – around 55% probability and Union have shown they can grab one even in losses. But the stronger case is Leipzig doing damage early and often.

Bet Builder – 8.62/1 on bet365

Statz’s bet builder tool has put together a four-leg Stats Purist slip for this one, priced at 8.62 on bet365. Every leg hits at 80% over the last five games.

• Andrej Ilic – 1+ Shots on Target (1.67) – Union Berlin’s top attacker has hit the target in four of his last five games, averaging 1.2 SOT per game. Hit rate: 80% last 5 (form: H H H – H).
• Josip Juranovic – 1+ Shots (2.25) – The Union Berlin defender has registered at least one shot in four of his last five appearances. Hit rate: 80% last 5 (form: H H H H -).
• Leopold Querfeld – 1+ Shots (1.53) – Another Union defender who has been getting forward. Four hits from five, averaging 1.0 shot per game. Hit rate: 80% last 5 (form: – H H H H).
• Livan Burcu – 1+ Tackles (1.50) – The Union attacker averages 1.4 tackles per game and has been over this line in four of his last five. Hit rate: 80% last 5 (form: H H H H -).

Combined: 8.62 on bet365 – Click to add all legs to your bet365 betslip

Summary

Leipzig are the right side to be on here. Third in the Bundesliga, in blistering form, hosting a Union Berlin side that has fallen apart since the turn of the year. The projected scoreline of 2.39-0.93 tells the story – this is a home side that should be creating, pressing and scoring from the off.

Over 2.5 goals is the headline pick with the model putting it at ~65%. If you’re building something, the four-leg bet builder at 8.62 is built on high hit rate data and looks solid for a Friday evening punt. Head to Statz for live lineup confirmations before kick-off at 18:30 BST.