Leicester vs Millwall Predictions and Betting Tips – Friday 24 April 2026
24th April 2026
A Friday night Championship fixture that means very different things to the two sides involved. Leicester are staring down the barrel of back-to-back relegations, sitting 23rd in the table and running out of time. Millwall are in the top three and hunting a play-off spot. This one has teeth.
Match Context
Leicester’s form over the last ten games reads grimly – W1 D5 L4, with nine scored and thirteen conceded. That’s a side that can’t win and can’t keep clean sheets. Millwall, by contrast, have been in excellent shape: W6 D2 L2 in their last ten, with sixteen goals scored and only eight conceded. They come in third on 79 points, three wins ahead of a Leicester side with just 42 points to their name.
The markets reflect the shape of things. Away win is priced as the most likely outcome at 38.90%, with home win (30.48%) and draw (30.62%) almost level behind it. That’s a genuinely open market, but the direction of travel for both clubs points firmly towards the visitors. Check the full head-to-head data on Statz.
Key Stats and Projections
Statz projects a scoreline of Leicester 1.30 – 1.58 Millwall, suggesting a close-ish game with Millwall edging it on expected output. The model has Josh Coburn as the top projected goalscorer on 0.44, with Patson Daka leading for Leicester on 0.36. Coburn is also the foul leader for Millwall over the last ten games, averaging 2.20 per game – 22 total. Issahaku Fatawu leads Leicester’s foul count at 1.30 per game.
Referee Farai Hallam takes charge, averaging 21.15 fouls and 4.05 yellows per game across 20 matches this season. With both sides carrying physical players in key positions, this is the kind of game where the card market has relevance. Explore the full Championship projections on Statz.
Betting Angles
BTTS comes in at roughly 52% – a coin flip, but the projections support both sides getting on the scoresheet. Leicester are conceding freely and Millwall have been scoring consistently. Over 2.5 goals sits at around 44%, which looks a touch low given a projected combined xG of around 2.88. The value angle here is probably both teams to score rather than the goals line.
The Millwall away win is worth attention at 38.90% implied – if you think the market is overestimating Leicester’s home advantage for a side this deep in a relegation fight, there’s a case to be made. But the most compelling plays are in the player markets, where the hit rates are doing some serious lifting tonight.
Bet Builder – 4 Legs @ 5.78 (bet365)
Built using the Statz Bet Builder Tool, stats purist theme, all four legs backed by consistent recent form.
- Harry Winks – 1+ Shots (1.67) – 100% hit rate in his last 5 games. Winks has registered at least one shot in every single one of those outings, averaging 2.2 per game. Consistent performer in this market.
- Tristan Crama – 1+ Shots (1.53) – 100% hit rate last 5. The Millwall defender has gone 5/5 on shots, averaging 1.4 per game. Defenders getting on the ball and testing keepers – Millwall’s set-piece threat makes this repeatable.
- Patson Daka – 1+ Shots on Target (1.57) – 80% hit rate last 5, hitting 4 from 5 games with an average of 1.6 shots on target per game when he registers. Leicester’s top projected scorer tonight and an attacker who forces goalkeepers into saves.
- Camiel Neghli – 1+ Shots on Target (1.44) – 80% hit rate last 5, landing 4 from 5. Millwall’s attacker has been reliable in this market and with Leicester’s form at the back, there’s opportunity there.
Combined price: 5.78 @ bet365 | Add to bet365 betslip
Summary
Millwall arrive at the King Power in the kind of form Leicester can only dream about right now. The projections lean towards the visitors, the form table supports it, and the market reflects it. BTTS at ~52% is the headline result market to look at – both sides have the personnel to score.
The bet builder is where the real structure is tonight though. Four legs, two at 100% hit rate last five, two at 80% – and a combined price of 5.78. That’s the play. Build your own using the Statz Bet Builder or browse all Championship projections at statz.ai/projections.