Yorkshire vs Nottinghamshire Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz
10th July 2026
Yorkshire host Nottinghamshire at Headingley on Saturday for a T20 Blast clash with significant playoff implications. First ball is at 14:30 BST on 12 July.
Yorkshire sit 4th in the table on 26 points from 10 matches, level with Nottinghamshire on points but ahead on net run rate. Nottinghamshire occupy 3rd on 28 points (W7 L3), having won five of their last six away matches. Both sides are firmly in the mix for the quarter-finals, but this fixture could prove decisive in the final push. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Yorkshire vs Nottinghamshire fixture page on Statz.
The Venue
Headingley is a batting paradise. Across the last 10 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 370 runs – well above the competition norm. The average first-innings score is 204.8, and teams batting first have won 70% of matches at this ground since 2021. Pace bowlers have taken 59.7% of wickets at an economy rate of 9.81, while spinners have been more economical at 8.69 but account for 36.9% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Batting paradise by Statz. This is a venue that rewards aggressive batting and punishes defensive bowling.
Form and Table
Yorkshire – 4th (P10 W6 L3 T1, 26 pts)
Yorkshire have steadied themselves with two consecutive wins over Leicestershire and Durham, but they remain vulnerable. Their recent form shows a mixed picture – they have won three of their last five matches but also suffered defeats to Hampshire and Derbyshire (no result):
- 05 Jul vs LEI (H): W – YOR 207/4, LEI 166/9
- 03 Jul vs DUR (H): W – YOR 208/5 (19.5), DUR 205/9
- 28 Jun vs DER (H): NR – YOR 215/8, DER 215/9
- 26 Jun vs HAM (H): L – YOR 150/10 (19.5), HAM 155/8
- 07 Jun vs LEI (H): L – YOR 135/10 (19.5), LEI 147/8
Nottinghamshire – 3rd (P10 W7 L3, 28 pts)
Nottinghamshire have been the more consistent side this season. They have won five of their last six matches, with their only recent loss coming against Lancashire. Their away record is particularly strong – they have won four of their last five away games:
- 05 Jul vs DUR (A): W – NOT 166/8, DUR 164/6
- 03 Jul vs LAN (A): W – NOT 181/6, LAN 180/7
- 28 Jun vs LEI (A): W – NOT 209/4, LEI 135/10
- 26 Jun vs KEN (A): W – NOT 187/6 (18.4), KEN 184/7
- 07 Jun vs DER (A): W – NOT 183/6, DER 173/9
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northamptonshire | 10 | 9 | 1 | 36 |
| 2 | Hampshire | 10 | 7 | 3 | 28 |
| 3 | Nottinghamshire | 10 | 7 | 3 | 28 |
| 4 | Yorkshire | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26 |
| 5 | Gloucestershire | 10 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
Both sides have six group matches remaining. Nottinghamshire’s superior record and away form give them the edge on paper, but Yorkshire’s home advantage at Headingley – where they have won 17 of 32 T20s since 2021 – cannot be underestimated.
Head-to-Head
Nottinghamshire dominate this fixture. In their last five meetings, Nottinghamshire have won four to Yorkshire’s one. The most recent clash came on 05 June 2026 at Headingley, where Yorkshire hammered 213/7 batting first and bowled Nottinghamshire out for 107/10 to win by 106 runs. However, that result masks Nottinghamshire’s overall superiority in the series – they have won at Headingley before and hold a 4-1 record in the last five encounters. At Headingley specifically, Nottinghamshire have won one and lost one from two visits since 2021, with an average score of 79 runs in their away match here.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections make this a coin-flip contest with a slight edge to Yorkshire at home.
If Yorkshire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 212.9, match total of 411.5. Win probability – YOR 56.2%, NOT 41.8%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 182 to 245.
If Nottinghamshire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 211.6, match total of 410.3. Win probability – YOR 47%, NOT 51%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 179 to 244.
Both projected match totals (410-411) sit well above the Headingley average of 370, suggesting the model rates both batting lineups highly. The projected first-innings totals of around 212 are also above the venue average of 204.8 – expect a high-scoring affair. Match total P10-P90 range: 355 to 465.
Competition Season Leaders
Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers
| Player | Team | Runs | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beau Webster | Warwickshire | 552 | 10 |
| Alex Lees | Durham | 465 | 10 |
| George Munsey | Nottinghamshire | 460 | 10 |
| Chris Lynn | Northamptonshire | 437 | 8 |
| Aneurin Donald | Derbyshire | 390 | 10 |
Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers
| Player | Team | Wkts | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hasan Ali | Yorkshire | 22 | 9 |
| James Sales | Northamptonshire | 19 | 10 |
| Mohammad Ali | Nottinghamshire | 19 | 10 |
| Reece Topley | Surrey | 18 | 10 |
| Scott Currie | Hampshire | 18 | 10 |
Yorkshire Season Leaders
Runs: Jonny Bairstow – 349 runs, avg 34.9, HS 83 | Adam Lyth – 332 runs, avg 33.2, HS 131 | William Luxton – 194 runs, avg 19.4, HS 46
Wickets: Hasan Ali – 22 wkts, avg 2.44 | Andrew Tye – 17 wkts, avg 1.7 | Jafer Chohan – 14 wkts, avg 1.56
Nottinghamshire Season Leaders
Runs: George Munsey – 460 runs, avg 46.0, HS 88 | Tom Moores – 242 runs, avg 24.2, HS 75 | Jack Haynes – 235 runs, avg 23.5, HS 50
Wickets: Mohammad Ali – 19 wkts, avg 1.9 | George Linde – 10 wkts, avg 1.11 | Dillon Pennington – 8 wkts, avg 1.33
Predicted XIs
Yorkshire (based on XI vs Leicestershire, 05 Jul 2026)
- Adam Lyth
- Jonny Bairstow (c, wk)
- William Luxton
- Sam Whiteman (wk)
- Moeen Ali
- Matthew Revis
- Faheem Ashraf
- Hasan Ali
- Andrew Tye
- Jafer Chohan
- Daniel Moriarty
Nottinghamshire (based on XI vs Durham, 05 Jul 2026)
- Joe Clarke (c)
- George Munsey
- Jack Haynes
- Tom Moores (wk)
- George Linde
- Benny Howell
- Liam Patterson-White
- Freddie McCann
- Olly Stone
- Mohammad Amir
- Mohammad Ali
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Hasan Ali (YOR) – projected 136.6 pts. The Pakistan international is Yorkshire’s leading wicket-taker with 22 wickets this season at an average of 2.44. He has taken at least one wicket in every single match this season (100% hit rate) and has taken 2+ wickets in 66.7% of matches. His last three returns of 3, 3 and 4 wickets show a bowler in devastating form.
Vice Captain: George Munsey (NOT) – projected 81.4 pts. The Nottinghamshire opener has been the standout batter in the competition with 460 runs at an average of 46.0. His 20+ run hit rate stands at 80% for the season (80% in his last 5), making him one of the most reliable batting options available.
Also consider:
- Mohammad Ali (NOT) – projected 88.7 pts – 19 wickets this season, 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket
- Jonny Bairstow (YOR) – projected 80.2 pts – 349 season runs, 50% hit rate for 30+ runs
- Andrew Tye (YOR) – projected 97.9 pts – 17 wickets, 80% hit rate for 1+ wicket in last 5
Key Players
George Munsey (Nottinghamshire)
The Scottish left-hander has been the standout batter across the entire competition. With 460 runs at an average of 46.0 and a high score of 88, Munsey sits third in the Orange Cap race. His last three scores of 75, 51 and 1 show occasional inconsistency, but his 80% hit rate for 20+ runs across the season is extraordinary. At Headingley, a big ground that can suppress scoring, Munsey’s ability to find the boundary will be crucial to Nottinghamshire’s chances.
Hasan Ali (Yorkshire)
The Pakistan international is Yorkshire’s most important player. With 22 wickets in 9 matches at an average of 2.44, Hasan Ali leads the Purple Cap race. He has taken at least one wicket in every single match this season (100% hit rate) and has taken 2+ wickets in 66.7% of matches. His last three returns of 3, 3 and 4 wickets show a bowler at the peak of his powers. Against Nottinghamshire’s strong batting lineup, his ability to take early wickets could prove decisive.
Jonny Bairstow (Yorkshire)
Yorkshire’s captain and wicketkeeper has 349 runs at an average of 34.9 with a high score of 83. His 50% hit rate for 30+ runs shows he is capable of big scores, though he has been inconsistent in recent matches. At Headingley, where he knows every blade of grass, Bairstow’s experience could be vital in anchoring Yorkshire’s innings.
Mohammad Ali (Nottinghamshire)
Nottinghamshire’s leading wicket-taker with 19 wickets in 10 matches. Mohammad Ali has taken at least one wicket in every single match this season (100% hit rate) and has taken 2+ wickets in 60% of matches. His consistency is remarkable – he provides a reliable second strike bowler to complement Nottinghamshire’s batting firepower.
Conditions
Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Headingley with temperatures around 19 degrees at the start and humidity at 62%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 3.2 km/h from the south-west – conditions that should favour batting throughout the afternoon and evening.
Verdict and Betting Angles
This is a finely balanced contest on paper. The Statz projections make Yorkshire slight favourites at home (51.6% win probability) with Nottinghamshire at 46.4%, but the strength is rated as a coin-flip. Nottinghamshire’s superior away record and overall form this season are compelling, but Yorkshire’s home advantage at Headingley – where they have won 17 of 32 T20s since 2021 – cannot be ignored.
The bookmakers reflect the closeness of the contest. Indicative odds have Yorkshire at around 1.90 and Nottinghamshire at 1.85.
I am leaning Yorkshire here. The home advantage at Headingley is significant, and Hasan Ali‘s form with the ball – 22 wickets in 9 matches – gives them a genuine edge in a high-scoring contest. Nottinghamshire’s batting is strong, but Yorkshire’s bowling attack has the quality to restrict them.
Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- George Munsey 20+ runs – 80% season hit rate. The most bankable batting line in this game with extraordinary consistency.
- Hasan Ali 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate. He has taken a wicket in every single match this season. As reliable as it gets.
- Jonny Bairstow 30+ runs – 50% season hit rate, 40% in his last 5. Yorkshire’s captain is capable of big scores at home.
- Mohammad Ali 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate. Nottinghamshire’s leading wicket-taker provides consistent value.