Welsh Fire vs Trent Rockets Prediction, Projections & Preview
27th July 2026
Welsh Fire host Trent Rockets at Sophia Gardens on Tuesday for the 11th Match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 14:00 BST on 29 July.
Welsh Fire sit 2nd in the table on 8 points from two matches, unbeaten so far with a net run rate of +0.632. Trent Rockets are 4th on 4 points (W1 L1, NRR -0.16), needing to find consistency after a mixed start. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Welsh Fire vs Trent Rockets fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss
Sophia Gardens is a bowler-friendly ground that has hosted 10 Hundred matches since 2021. The average match total stands at 243.7 with an average first-innings score of 147.2. Seam bowlers have dominated, taking 75% of wickets at an economy rate of 9.0, while spinners account for 20.5% of dismissals at 10.66. The pitch is tagged as Bowler Friendly by Statz.
Home teams at Sophia Gardens have won 55.6% of matches since 2021 – a clear toss advantage for Welsh Fire. Teams batting first have won at a lower rate than those chasing, suggesting the call here should be to bowl first and chase. The ground has seen an average of 7.6 sixes per match, indicating that while pace and spin are effective, explosive batting is still possible if batters get in.
Form and Table
Welsh Fire – 2nd (P2 W2 L0, 8 pts)
Welsh Fire have made a perfect start to their Hundred campaign. They beat MI London by 15 runs on 25 July (WF 167/5, MIL 152/6) and Southern Brave by 3 runs on 22 July (WF 138/4, SB 135/7). Both victories have come at home, and their net run rate of +0.632 reflects controlled, clinical cricket.
Trent Rockets – 4th (P2 W1 L1, 4 pts)
Trent Rockets have split their opening matches. They beat London Spirit by 1 run on 26 July (TR 160/6, LS 159/9) but lost to Birmingham Phoenix by 10 runs on 24 July (TR 204/7, BP 214/4). The loss to Phoenix, despite posting 204, suggests their bowling has been the weaker link.
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester Super Giants | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | +3.45 |
| 2 | Welsh Fire | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | +0.632 |
| 3 | MI London | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1.198 |
| 4 | Trent Rockets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -0.16 |
| 5 | Sunrisers Leeds | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1.63 |
Head-to-Head
Trent Rockets hold the edge in this fixture. In five meetings since 2021, Rockets have won four to Fire’s one. However, the most recent clash on 24 August 2025 at Sophia Gardens went to Rockets by just 3 wickets (TR 152/7 chasing WF 150/6), a tight contest that shows Fire can compete. At Sophia Gardens specifically, Rockets are 3-0 up, though that record includes a narrow escape last year.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip match with a slight lean to Rockets.
If Welsh Fire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 137.3, match total of 266.4. Win probability – WF 43.7%, TR 49.8%, tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 115 to 160.
If Trent Rockets bat first: Projected first-innings total of 138.6, match total of 267.8. Win probability – WF 42.2%, TR 51.3%, tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 117 to 161.
Both projected match totals (266-268) sit well above the Sophia Gardens average of 243.7, suggesting both sides have the firepower to exceed venue norms. The projected first-innings totals of 137-139 are below the venue average of 147.2, indicating the bowlers will have early control. Match total P10-P90 range: 227 to 309.
Competition Season Leaders
Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers
| Player | Team | Runs | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Duckett | Trent Rockets | 124 | 2 |
| Rachin Ravindra | Welsh Fire | 122 | 2 |
| Mitchell Marsh | Sunrisers Leeds | 110 | 2 |
| Jos Buttler | Manchester Super Giants | 106 | 2 |
| Liam Livingstone | London Spirit | 102 | 2 |
Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers
| Player | Team | Wkts | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Gleeson | MI London | 5 | 2 |
| Liam Dawson | Manchester Super Giants | 4 | 2 |
| Lockie Ferguson | Welsh Fire | 4 | 2 |
| Calvin Harrison | Trent Rockets | 4 | 2 |
| Sonny Baker | Manchester Super Giants | 4 | 2 |
Welsh Fire Season Leaders
Runs: Rachin Ravindra – 122 runs, avg 61.0, HS 98 | Philip Salt – 53 runs, avg 26.5, HS 47 | Joe Root – 44 runs, avg 22.0, HS 29
Wickets: Lockie Ferguson – 4 wkts, avg 2.0 | Marco Jansen – 2 wkts, avg 1.0 | Samuel Cook – 2 wkts, avg 1.0
Trent Rockets Season Leaders
Runs: Ben Duckett – 124 runs, avg 62.0, HS 75 | Tom Banton – 89 runs, avg 44.5, HS 67 | Finn Allen – 43 runs, avg 21.5, HS 43
Wickets: Calvin Harrison – 4 wkts, avg 2.0 | Craig Overton – 2 wkts, avg 1.0 | Mohammad Amir – 2 wkts, avg 1.0
Predicted XIs
Welsh Fire (based on XI vs MI London, 25 Jul 2026)
- Philip Salt (c, wk)
- Matthew Short
- Joe Root
- Rachin Ravindra
- Asa Tribe (wk)
- Ben Kellaway
- Marco Jansen
- Chris Woakes
- Lockie Ferguson
- Samuel Cook
- Jordan Cox (wk)
Trent Rockets (based on XI vs London Spirit, 26 Jul 2026)
- Finn Allen (wk)
- Ben Duckett
- Tom Banton
- Sam Billings (c, wk)
- Tim David
- Mitchell Santner
- Lewis Gregory
- Craig Overton
- Calvin Harrison
- Matt Henry
- Mohammad Amir
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Rachin Ravindra (WF) – projected 75.9 pts when Fire bat first, 72.1 pts when Rockets bat first. The New Zealand all-rounder has 122 runs at 61.0 average in two matches and is the standout batter in this fixture. Projected 34.2 runs with a strike rate of 203.1.
Vice Captain: Craig Overton (TR) – projected 79.7 pts when Fire bat first, 80.5 pts when Rockets bat first. The Somerset all-rounder offers dual value with projected 7.1-7.6 runs and 1.41 wickets per match, plus an economy rate of 7.55. A reliable captain pick across all scenarios.
Also consider:
- Lockie Ferguson (WF) – projected 74.4-73.7 pts – 4 wickets in 2 matches, 1.34 projected wickets per game
- Matt Henry (TR) – projected 75.2-75.8 pts – 1.43 projected wickets with economy of 9.76
- Ben Duckett (TR) – 124 runs in 2 matches, avg 62.0, projected 26.5 runs
Key Players
Rachin Ravindra (Welsh Fire)
The New Zealand all-rounder has been the standout performer in this Hundred so far. With 122 runs at an average of 61.0 and a high score of 98, Ravindra sits second in the Orange Cap race behind Ben Duckett. His last two scores of 24 and 98 show explosive potential. The Statz bet builder projects him for 34.2 runs with a strike rate of 203.1 – a genuine match-winner batting at number 4.
Ben Duckett (Trent Rockets)
Duckett leads the Orange Cap with 124 runs from just two matches at an average of 62.0. His last two scores of 49 and 75 show he is in imperious form. Opening the batting for Rockets, Duckett has the platform to dominate against a Fire bowling attack that has conceded runs in both matches so far. Projected for 26.5 runs in this fixture.
Lockie Ferguson (Welsh Fire)
The New Zealand fast bowler has taken 4 wickets in 2 matches and sits joint-third in the Purple Cap race. Ferguson’s pace and accuracy have been crucial to Fire’s unbeaten start. Projected for 1.34 wickets per match with an economy rate of 9.16, he will be key to Fire’s bowling plans against Rockets’ strong batting lineup.
Calvin Harrison (Trent Rockets)
The all-rounder has taken 4 wickets in 2 matches for Rockets and sits joint-third in the Purple Cap. Harrison has been one of the few bright spots in Rockets’ bowling attack. His projected 1.37 wickets per match and economy of 8.8 make him a key player in containing Fire’s batting firepower.
Conditions
Overcast skies are forecast for Sophia Gardens with temperatures around 20 degrees at the start and humidity at 65%. A light shower is possible in the afternoon but nothing significant is expected. Wind is light at 3.2 km/h from the south-west – conditions that may assist seam bowling early on.
Who will win Welsh Fire vs Trent Rockets?
Trent Rockets are the pick at 50.6% win probability, though this is a coin-flip contest with Welsh Fire at 43% and 6.5% tie/no-result probability.
The Statz projections favour Rockets slightly, particularly if they bowl first and chase (51.3% win probability). However, Welsh Fire’s perfect record at home – two wins from two with a strong net run rate – cannot be ignored. The toss will be crucial here. If Fire win the toss and bowl first, they become slight favourites at 56.3% (100% minus 43.7%). If Rockets win the toss and bowl, Rockets edge to 51.3%.
Rockets’ batting has been exceptional – Duckett’s 124 runs and Tom Banton’s 89 runs show they have the firepower. But Fire’s bowling, led by Ferguson’s 4 wickets, has been tighter. The venue’s bowler-friendly nature and Fire’s home advantage make this genuinely competitive.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and hit rates on this fixture:
- Rachin Ravindra 30+ runs – Projected 34.2 runs with a 203.1 strike rate. The most bankable batting line in this match.
- Ben Duckett 20+ runs – 124 runs in 2 matches at 62.0 average. Duckett is in outstanding form and should clear 20 runs comfortably.
- Lockie Ferguson 1+ wicket – 4 wickets in 2 matches with 1.34 projected per game. Fire’s key bowler against a strong Rockets batting lineup.
- Craig Overton 1+ wicket – Projected 1.41 wickets per match. The all-rounder has been consistent for Rockets.
Welsh Fire vs Trent Rockets prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Welsh Fire vs Trent Rockets?
A: Trent Rockets are slight favourites at 50.6% win probability according to Statz projections, but this is a coin-flip match. Welsh Fire have home advantage and an unbeaten record, while Rockets have superior batting form. The toss will be decisive – Fire become favourites if they bowl first.
Q: What is the projected match total?
A: The Statz model projects a match total of 266-268 runs, with a P10-P90 range of 227 to 309. This sits above the Sophia Gardens average of 243.7, suggesting both sides have the batting depth to exceed venue norms.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: Home teams at Sophia Gardens have won 55.6% of tosses since 2021, so Welsh Fire have the statistical edge. The winning captain should bowl first – the bowler-friendly pitch and lower projected first-innings totals (137-139) favour chasing.
Q: Is Trent Rockets a good bet?
A: Rockets are slight favourites at 50.6% win probability, but only marginally. Their batting has been exceptional with Duckett and Banton in form, but their bowling has been leaky. Fire’s home record and tighter bowling make this a genuine toss-up rather than a strong backing opportunity.