Welsh Fire vs MI London Preview – The Hundred 2026 | Statz

23rd July 2026

Welsh Fire host MI London in the 6th Match of The Hundred 2026 on Saturday, 25 July at 17:00 BST. Both sides arrive unbeaten after their opening fixtures, but MI London’s superior net run rate (3.136 vs 0.349) suggests they are the sharper outfit early in the tournament. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Welsh Fire vs MI London fixture page on Statz.

Form and Table Position

Both sides sit at the top of the standings with one win apiece. Welsh Fire beat Southern Brave by 3 runs on 22 July (WF 138/4, SB 135/7), while MI London dominated Sunrisers Leeds by 29 runs on 21 July (MIL 144/3, SL 143/10). The difference in those margins tells the story – MI London’s batting firepower and bowling precision have been clinical so far.

The broader picture shows MI London have won four of their last five matches across all formats, with only one loss to London Spirit. Welsh Fire, meanwhile, have a mixed recent record with two wins and three losses in their last five outings, though they are riding the momentum of their opening-day victory.

Head-to-Head Record

MI London dominate this fixture comprehensively. In five meetings between these sides, MI London have won four with just one no-result. Welsh Fire have yet to register a victory in this matchup. The most recent encounter saw MI London prevail, and that pattern of dominance is a significant psychological factor heading into this clash.

Statz Projections and Match Outlook

The Statz projections paint a clear picture: MI London are the favourites at 56.2% win probability, with Welsh Fire at 37.4%. The projected match total sits at 271 runs – a modest figure for The Hundred format, suggesting both bowling attacks will have significant impact.

If Welsh Fire bat first, the model projects a first-innings total of 137.9 with a match total of 269.2. If MI London bat first, those figures rise slightly to 142.9 and 273.5 respectively. The P10-P90 range for first-innings scores (114-164) indicates considerable variance – expect either side to post anywhere from a modest total to a competitive one depending on early momentum.

Season Leaders and Competition Form

Top Run-Scorers (The Hundred 2026)

Sam Curran (MI London) leads the competition with 60 runs from one match, while Nicholas Pooran (MI London) sits second with 58. Philip Salt (Welsh Fire) has 47 runs from his opening knock. The Curran brothers – Sam and Tom – have been standout performers for MI London, combining batting and bowling prowess.

Top Wicket-Takers (The Hundred 2026)

Richard Gleeson (MI London) leads the competition with 4 wickets from one match – an exceptional return that underscores MI London’s bowling depth. Sam Curran has 2 wickets alongside his 60 runs, making him a genuine all-round threat.

Predicted Lineups

Welsh Fire (based on XI vs Southern Brave, 22 July 2026)

  1. Philip Salt (c, wk)
  2. Joe Root
  3. Jordan Cox
  4. Matthew Short
  5. Rachin Ravindra
  6. Ben Kellaway
  7. Marco Jansen
  8. Chris Woakes
  9. Lockie Ferguson
  10. Samuel Cook

MI London (based on XI vs Sunrisers Leeds, 21 July 2026)

  1. James Vince
  2. Will Jacks
  3. Jason Roy
  4. Sam Curran (c)
  5. Nicholas Pooran (wk)
  6. Tom Curran
  7. Rashid Khan
  8. Trent Boult
  9. Richard Gleeson
  10. Nathan Sowter

These lineups are based on the most recent matches for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for confirmed XIs on match day.

Key Players

Sam Curran (MI London)

The MI London captain has made an explosive start to The Hundred with 60 runs and 2 wickets in his opening match. The Statz projections show him at 120.8 Dream11 points when MI London bat second – a captain-level fantasy score. His all-round contribution (batting at strike rate 157.4, bowling at economy 9.72) makes him the most bankable player in this fixture.

Nicholas Pooran (MI London)

The West Indian wicketkeeper-batter has 58 runs from one match and is projected for 96.2 Dream11 points if MI London bat second. His aggressive strike rate (169.1) and ability to construct big innings make him a genuine match-winner. The Statz projections show him averaging 39.8 runs in chase scenarios.

Richard Gleeson (MI London)

Four wickets in one match is an extraordinary return. Gleeson’s economy rate of 11.1 suggests he is being hit, but his wicket-taking ability is undeniable. The Statz projections show him at 70.3 Dream11 points – elite bowling form that Welsh Fire must navigate carefully.

Philip Salt (Welsh Fire)

Welsh Fire’s captain and opening batter has 47 runs from his opening knock and will be crucial to setting the tone early. His aggressive approach (strike rate around 156) is essential if Welsh Fire are to post a competitive total against MI London’s bowling attack.

Verdict and Betting Angles

MI London are the clear favourites here, and the data supports that lean. Their 56.2% win probability, combined with a 4-0 head-to-head record and superior net run rate, makes them the pick. The Statz projections show them winning in both scenarios – batting first or second – with Sam Curran and Richard Gleeson leading the charge.

Welsh Fire are not without hope. Philip Salt’s aggressive batting and the presence of Joe Root provide experience, while Marco Jansen’s all-round ability offers balance. However, the weight of evidence – form, H2H, and projections – points to MI London.

Indicative odds have MI London at around 1.70-1.80 with Welsh Fire at 2.00-2.10 across major bookmakers.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds on this fixture: