Sunrisers Leeds vs Southern Brave Preview – The Hundred 2026 | Statz

23rd July 2026

Sunrisers Leeds host Southern Brave at Headingley on Saturday for a crucial The Hundred fixture. First ball is at 13:30 BST on 25 July. Both sides are searching for their first win of the tournament after opening defeats, and this 5th Match clash offers a genuine chance to reset their campaigns.

Sunrisers Leeds slipped to 8th in the table after losing to MI London by 3 runs on 21 July, while Southern Brave sit 7th after a 3-run defeat to Welsh Fire the same day. For full head-to-head records, projections and live lineups, check the fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

Headingley has been a fortress for run-scoring in The Hundred. Across the last 16 matches here, the average match total stands at 322.5 with an average first-innings score of 167.6. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of matches at this ground – no toss advantage either way.

The pitch is tagged as Balanced, but the boundary percentages tell a story of explosive cricket. Across recent matches, 62.8% of runs have come from boundaries, with an average of 13.4 sixes per match. Seam bowlers have taken 59.1% of wickets at an economy rate of 12.32, while spinners have been more economical at 11.09 but account for 32.2% of dismissals. Pace will dominate, but control will be crucial.

Form and Table

Sunrisers Leeds – 8th (P1 W0 L1, 0 pts)

Sunrisers Leeds opened their campaign with a narrow loss to MI London. Zak Crawley scored 13 runs in that defeat, while Tom Alsop made 31. The bowling was tighter – Brydon Carse took 2 wickets and Nathan Ellis chipped in with one – but it was not enough to defend 143.

Southern Brave – 7th (P1 W0 L1, 0 pts)

Southern Brave also suffered a narrow opening defeat to Welsh Fire. David Miller scored 44 runs in that match, while Thomas Rew made 41. Nikhil Chaudhary took 2 wickets with the ball, and Daniel Worrall claimed one, but Southern Brave fell short chasing 138.

Head-to-Head

Sunrisers Leeds have dominated this fixture historically. In five meetings, Leeds have won four to Southern Brave’s one. The most recent clash saw Leeds win convincingly, and that trend of dominance at home is a significant factor heading into this contest. Full H2H stats and projections are available on Statz.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip, with Sunrisers Leeds holding a marginal edge at home.

If Sunrisers Leeds bat first: Projected first-innings total of 168.3, match total of 325.2. Win probability – SL 48.6%, SB 44.9%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 144 to 194.

If Southern Brave bat first: Projected first-innings total of 167.3, match total of 324.3. Win probability – SL 48.7%, SB 44.8%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 141 to 194.

Both projected match totals (324-325) sit just above the Headingley average of 322.5, suggesting a tight contest. The projected first-innings totals of around 167-168 are slightly below the venue average of 167.6 – expect early discipline to be rewarded.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers

Predicted XIs

Sunrisers Leeds (based on XI vs MI London, 21 July 2026)

  1. Ryan Rickelton (wk)
  2. Mitchell Marsh
  3. Zak Crawley (c)
  4. Harry Brook
  5. Daniel Lawrence
  6. Tom Alsop
  7. Benny Howell
  8. Brydon Carse
  9. Matty Potts
  10. Nathan Ellis
  11. Abrar Ahmed

Southern Brave (based on XI vs Welsh Fire, 22 July 2026)

  1. Jamie Smith (wk)
  2. Ben McKinney
  3. Thomas Rew
  4. David Miller
  5. Tristan Stubbs
  6. Nikhil Chaudhary
  7. Chris Jordan (c)
  8. Jofra Archer
  9. Adil Rashid
  10. Luke Wood
  11. Daniel Worrall

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Chris Jordan (SB) – projected ~83.7 pts. The Southern Brave skipper brings genuine all-round value with projected runs of 13.3 and 1.33 wickets per match. His economy rate of 10.45 is tight for The Hundred, making him a reliable captain choice.

Vice Captain: Jofra Archer (SB) – projected ~72.1 pts. The pace spearhead offers wicket-taking prowess with 1.35 projected wickets per match and an economy of 8.54. His ability to take early wickets makes him a strong vice-captain option.

Also consider:

Key Players

Harry Brook (Sunrisers Leeds)

The Yorkshire batter is the standout talent in this Sunrisers Leeds lineup. Brook has 164 runs across five matches in recent Hundred cricket with 7 sixes – a strike rate of 164.4 that shows his aggressive intent. The Statz projections have him at 29.4 runs per match, making him a cornerstone of any fantasy team. His ability to accelerate in the middle overs will be crucial if Leeds bat first.

David Miller (Southern Brave)

Southern Brave’s most dangerous batter. Miller scored 44 runs in his opening match and brings a wealth of T20 experience. His projected 26.2 runs per match and strike rate of 164.3 make him a match-winner. In a low-scoring contest, his ability to find boundaries will be the difference between victory and defeat.

Jofra Archer (Southern Brave)

The pace spearhead is Southern Brave’s primary weapon with the ball. Archer has taken 3 wickets in recent Hundred cricket with an economy rate of 8.54 – exceptional control for the format. His projected 1.35 wickets per match and ability to bowl at death make him invaluable in a tight contest.

Zak Crawley (Sunrisers Leeds)

The Sunrisers Leeds captain brings Test-match technique to The Hundred. Crawley has 29 runs from his opening match and is projected for 31.3 runs per game. His role as an anchor at the top of the order will set the tone for Leeds’ innings, and his consistency is a key factor in their chances.

Conditions

Overcast skies are forecast for Headingley with temperatures around 19 degrees. There is a 20% chance of rain, but no significant precipitation is expected to disrupt play. Wind is light at 3.2 km/h from the west – conditions that should suit both batting and bowling throughout the afternoon.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a genuine coin-flip between two sides desperate for their first win. The Statz projections make it essentially 50-50, with Sunrisers Leeds holding a marginal home advantage at 48.7% win probability. Their 4-1 head-to-head record over Southern Brave is a significant factor, and home advantage at Headingley – where they have won 50% of recent matches – tilts this slightly in their favour.

I am leaning Sunrisers Leeds here. The momentum of recent Hundred history, the home crowd, and the quality of their batting lineup – particularly Harry Brook and Zak Crawley – give them the edge. Southern Brave have the bowling talent to compete, but Leeds’ depth is superior.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and hit rates on this fixture: