Warwickshire vs Sussex Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

30th June 2026

Two sides stuck in the bottom three of the T20 Blast table meet at Edgbaston on Wednesday night, both desperate for a win. Warwickshire sit 16th with two wins from seven, while Sussex are 17th on the same record. Neither can afford to fall further behind. First ball at 23:30 IST (19:00 BST). Full projections and stats on the Statz match page.

The Venue

Edgbaston has produced decent totals across 30 T20s since July 2023, with an average first-innings score of 175.9 and a bat-first win rate of exactly 50%. Pace bowlers claim 62.1% of wickets at an economy of 8.87, while spinners go at 8.36 and take 32%. The pitch is tagged as balanced, with the highest total a 240 and the lowest 106. The most recent match here saw Warwickshire post 224/10 before bowling Worcestershire out for 165/7 on 26 June – a 59-run thumping.

Form and Table

Warwickshire (16th – P7 W2 L5, 8pts)
The Bears come into this one off the back of a thumping win over Worcestershire (224/10 vs 165/7) and that dramatic last-ball chase at Somerset (216/4 vs 215/4). Before that, though, it was three straight defeats – losing to Nottinghamshire (139/10 vs 143/7), Northamptonshire (208/7 vs 209/4), and Worcestershire (141/10 vs 142/4). Form reads W W L L L from most recent.

Sussex (17th – P7 W2 L5, 8pts)
Sussex were comfortably beaten by Surrey last time out (171/10 vs 175/3), and their only recent win came against Kent on 7 June (135/3 vs 133/8). Defeats to Leicestershire (179/10 vs 180/6), Hampshire (144/10 vs 173/6), and Middlesex (182/10 vs 213/4) make grim reading. Form reads L W L L L.

Table – Top 4
1. Northamptonshire – P7 W7 L0, 28pts
2. Hampshire – P8 W6 L2, 24pts
3. Gloucestershire – P7 W5 L2, 20pts
4. Nottinghamshire – P8 W5 L3, 20pts

Both sides have seven games remaining and sit well off the qualifying pace. This is a game neither can afford to lose.

Head-to-Head

There are no T20 meetings between these two sides in the Statz database. The venue records show Sussex have played just one T20 at Edgbaston since 2021, which they lost. Warwickshire’s record at their home ground is strong – 19 wins from 34 T20s at Edgbaston since 2021, with Sam Hain the venue’s all-time top run-scorer (989 runs).

Statz Projections

Statz models give Warwickshire the edge regardless of who bats first. In the batting-first scenario, Warwickshire are projected at 52.4% to win, with a first-innings total of 202.2 and a match total of 388.2. If Sussex bat first, Warwickshire’s win probability rises to 54.6%, with a projected first innings of 196.5 and match total of 382.6.

The projected first-innings range (P10-P90) sits between 174 and 232 if Warwickshire bat first – well above the ground average of 175.9. Match totals are projected between 337 and 436, comfortably higher than the venue’s 330 average. Expect runs at Edgbaston.

Full projections on the Statz projections page.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers
1. George Munsey (Nottinghamshire) – 408 runs, 8 innings
2. Beau Webster (Warwickshire) – 367 runs, 7 innings
3. James Rew (Somerset) – 342 runs, 6 innings
4. Sam Billings (Kent) – 338 runs, 8 innings
5. Chris Lynn (Northamptonshire) – 320 runs, 7 innings

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers
1. James Sales (Northamptonshire) – 17 wickets, 7 innings
2. Mohammad Ali (Nottinghamshire) – 17 wickets, 8 innings
3. Duan Jansen (Gloucestershire) – 16 wickets, 6 innings
4. Hasan Ali (Yorkshire) – 15 wickets, 7 innings
5. Chris Wood (Hampshire) – 15 wickets, 8 innings

Warwickshire Season Leaders
Runs: Beau Webster – 367 runs, avg 52.43, HS 112 | Zen Malik – 152 runs, avg 38.00, HS 99 | Robert Yates – 148 runs, avg 21.14, HS 45
Wickets: Usman Tariq – 7 wkts (7 matches) | Jordan Thompson – 6 wkts (7 matches) | Chris Woakes – 5 wkts (7 matches)

Sussex Season Leaders
Runs: Daniel Hughes – 226 runs, avg 32.29, HS 45 | Harrison Ward – 158 runs, avg 39.50, HS 69 | John Simpson – 150 runs, avg 21.43, HS 63
Wickets: Tymal Mills – 10 wkts (7 matches) | Danny Briggs – 6 wkts (7 matches) | James Coles – 5 wkts (5 matches)

Predicted XIs

Based on the most recent match on 26 June. Check the Statz fixture page after the toss for any changes.

Warwickshire (last XI vs Worcestershire, 26 Jun)
Robert Yates, Zen Malik, Dan Mousley, Sam Hain, Beau Webster, Ed Barnard (c), Kai Smith (wk), Jordan Thompson, Chris Woakes, Richard Gleeson, Usman Tariq

Sussex (last XI vs Surrey, 26 Jun)
Daniel Hughes, Harrison Ward, John Simpson (wk), James Coles, Tom Alsop, Oliver Carter, Tom Price, Danny Briggs, Ollie Robinson, Tymal Mills (c), Henry Crocombe

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice-Captain

Captain: Beau Webster – Projected 102.8 Dream11 points. The tournament’s second-highest run-scorer with 367 runs at 52.43. His all-round contribution with bat and ball makes him the standout pick.

Vice-Captain: Jordan Thompson – Projected 94.5 Dream11 points. The all-rounder offers both batting firepower from number seven and wicket-taking ability with 6 wickets this season.

Also consider:
– James Coles (SUS) – 85.6 projected points
– Dan Mousley (WAR) – 83.6 projected points
– Zen Malik (WAR) – 80.7 projected points

Key Players

Beau Webster (Warwickshire)
The Australian all-rounder has been the standout player in the Blast this season. His 367 runs at 52.43 include a century (112) and scores of 79 and 23 in his last three. He has a 71.4% hit rate for 20+ runs and a 57.1% rate for 30+ runs this season. Second on the Orange Cap list and comfortably Warwickshire’s most important player.

Tymal Mills (Sussex)
Sussex’s captain and leading wicket-taker with 10 scalps this season. He carries a 57.1% hit rate for 1+ wicket and 57.1% for 2+ wickets, with those rates jumping to 80% across his last five matches. His left-arm pace is a genuine threat at any ground, and figures of 2 and 3 wickets in his last two bowling performances show sharp form.

Daniel Hughes (Sussex)
The Australian opener has the highest 20+ runs hit rate in this fixture at 85.7%, scoring 25, 41, and 45 in his last three innings. His 226 runs at 32.29 make him Sussex’s most reliable run-scorer. Consistently gets starts – the question is whether he can convert at Edgbaston.

Jordan Thompson (Warwickshire)
Thompson’s all-round value makes him crucial. He has taken 6 wickets this season with a 1+ wicket hit rate of 57.1% (80% in last 5 matches). His seam bowling and lower-order hitting at number seven add real dimension to this Warwickshire side.

Conditions

Fair skies forecast in Birmingham with temperatures around 22 degrees, just 27% cloud cover, and no rain expected. Perfect conditions for an uninterrupted evening of T20 cricket.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Warwickshire to win. Statz projections have the Bears favoured at around 52-55% regardless of the toss, and the bet365 odds of 1.68 reflect that. At their home ground where they have won 19 of 34 T20s since 2021, Warwickshire have the edge over a Sussex side that has lost four of their last five. That 224 against Worcestershire last time out suggests the batting lineup – led by Beau Webster – is clicking.

Bet Builder Angles:
– Beau Webster 20+ runs – 71.4% season hit rate, 80% in last 5
– Daniel Hughes 20+ runs – 85.7% season hit rate, the highest in this fixture
– Tymal Mills 1+ wicket – 57.1% season rate, 80% in last 5 matches
– Zen Malik over 18.5 runs at 1.83 – Statz model gives a 64.8% true probability vs 54.6% implied, a 10.2% edge

Build your own selections on the Statz Bet Builder.