Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction, Projections & Preview

31st July 2026

Trent Rockets host Sunrisers Leeds at Trent Bridge on Sunday for the 17th Match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 13:30 BST on 2 August.

Both sides sit on 8 points from three matches – level on the table but separated by net run rate. Trent Rockets occupy 2nd place with a positive NRR of 0.989, while Sunrisers Leeds are 5th at -0.659. The Rockets have won their last two matches and are building momentum at home. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss

Trent Bridge has hosted 10 Hundred matches this season with an average match total of 269.2 runs. The average first-innings score stands at 136.5, suggesting a balanced pitch that rewards both bat and ball. Seam bowlers have taken 53.1% of wickets at an economy of 10.33, while spinners account for 40.8% of dismissals at 9.34. The ground is tagged as bowler-friendly by Statz.

Trent Rockets’ home record at this venue is strong – 14 wins from 19 Hundred matches since 2021, an average score of 18.1 overs per innings. Sunrisers Leeds have visited only twice, winning once and losing once, averaging 14.2 overs per innings. The toss will be crucial here – teams batting first have won exactly 50% of matches at Trent Bridge this season, so the call to bat or bowl first carries real weight. Expect the side winning the toss to lean towards batting first and setting a total on a pitch that may deteriorate under lights.

Form and Table Position

Trent Rockets – 2nd (P3 W2 L1, 8 pts)

The Rockets have found their rhythm. Two straight wins – 126/1 against Welsh Fire on 29 July and 160/6 against London Spirit on 26 July – show a side clicking with the bat. Their only loss came against Birmingham Phoenix (204/7 vs 214/4) on 24 July, a close contest that could have gone either way. Ben Duckett has been the standout performer with 175 runs at 58.33, hitting 20+ runs in all three matches. Tom Banton has added 121 runs at 40.33, providing a solid middle order. The bowling has been equally impressive – Mitchell Santner and Calvin Harrison have each taken 4 wickets this season.

Sunrisers Leeds – 5th (P3 W2 L1, 8 pts)

Sunrisers Leeds have also won two and lost one, but their net run rate tells a different story. Mitchell Marsh has been their rock with 173 runs at 57.67, hitting 30+ runs in all three matches. Zak Crawley (68 runs, avg 22.67) and Harry Brook (53 runs, avg 17.67) have contributed but inconsistently. The bowling attack features Nathan Ellis with 4 wickets and Brydon Carse with 3 wickets, both averaging 1.33 and 1.0 per match respectively.

Head-to-Head Record

Trent Rockets hold a commanding H2H advantage with 4 wins from 6 meetings against Sunrisers Leeds. The most recent result was a no-result on 30 August 2025 when Sunrisers Leeds reached 119/5 from 75 balls before rain intervened. Before that, Rockets won on 26 August 2025 (160/6 vs 159/9). The Rockets’ home record against Leeds is strong – they have won more often at Trent Bridge than away. Full H2H stats and projections are available on Statz.

Statz Projections and Projected Match Total

The Statz model rates this as a tight contest with a projected match total of 255 runs – well below the Trent Bridge average of 269.2. This suggests both bowling attacks will have a say.

If Trent Rockets bat first: Projected first-innings total of 132.2 (P10-P90: 112-153), match total of 255.6. Win probability – Rockets 49.1%, Leeds 44.4%, tie/no-result 6.5%.

If Sunrisers Leeds bat first: Projected first-innings total of 131.0 (P10-P90: 110-152), match total of 254.4. Win probability – Rockets 50.1%, Leeds 43.4%, tie/no-result 6.5%.

The projections show Rockets gain a marginal edge if they bowl first (50.1% vs 43.4%), suggesting the toss may prove decisive. Head to the Statz projections page for full player-level forecasts and Dream11 insights.

Predicted XIs

Trent Rockets (based on XI vs Welsh Fire, 29 Jul 2026)

  1. Ben Duckett (wk)
  2. Finn Allen
  3. Tom Banton
  4. Tim David
  5. Sam Billings (c)
  6. Mitchell Santner
  7. Lewis Gregory
  8. Craig Overton
  9. Calvin Harrison
  10. Matt Henry
  11. Mohammad Amir

Sunrisers Leeds (based on XI vs Manchester Super Giants, 28 Jul 2026)

  1. Mitchell Marsh
  2. Ryan Rickelton (wk)
  3. Zak Crawley (c)
  4. Harry Brook
  5. Daniel Lawrence
  6. Tom Alsop
  7. Matthew Revis
  8. Brydon Carse
  9. Matty Potts
  10. Nathan Ellis
  11. Abrar Ahmed

These lineups are based on the most recent matches for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Mitchell Marsh (SL) – Projected 62.9 Dream11 points when Leeds bat first. The all-rounder has hit 30+ runs in all three matches this season (100% hit rate) and projects for 41.6 runs in this fixture. His consistency and strike rate of 180.1 make him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Ben Duckett (TR) – Projected 52.8 points when Rockets bat first. Duckett has scored 20+ runs in all three matches (100% hit rate) and projects for 34.6 runs here. The Rockets opener is in outstanding form and a reliable vice captain pick.

Also consider:

Key Players

Ben Duckett (Trent Rockets)

The Rockets opener has been in devastating form. With 175 runs at 58.33 from three matches, Duckett has hit 20+ runs in every single game this season – a 100% hit rate that is rare at this level. His last three scores of 49, 75 and 51 show a player in complete control. The Statz projections model him for 34.6 runs in this fixture, and his strike rate of 143.3 suggests he will put pressure on the Leeds bowling from ball one.

Mitchell Marsh (Sunrisers Leeds)

Leeds’ standout performer with 173 runs at 57.67 and a 100% hit rate for 30+ runs. Marsh has scored 41, 69 and 63 in his last three matches – the kind of consistency that wins matches. His all-rounder status and projected 41.6 runs in this game make him the most dangerous player on the Leeds side. The Statz model rates him for 62.9 Dream11 points when Leeds bat first.

Matt Henry (Trent Rockets)

The Rockets’ strike bowler has been relentless. With 3 wickets from 3 matches and a 66.7% hit rate for 1+ wicket, Henry projects for 1.5 wickets and an economy of 10.93 in this fixture. His ability to take early wickets and bowl tight death overs makes him a key factor in the Rockets’ success.

Nathan Ellis (Sunrisers Leeds)

Leeds’ leading wicket-taker with 4 wickets from 3 matches and a 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket. Ellis has taken 1, 1 and 2 wickets in his last three games, showing the consistency needed at international level. His economy of 8.59 suggests he can contain the Rockets’ aggressive batting.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Trent Bridge with temperatures around 20 degrees Celsius. Humidity sits at 68% with light winds of 4.3 km/h from the south-west. No rain is expected during the match window. The conditions favour neither side particularly, though the cooler temperature may assist the seam bowlers early on.

Who Will Win Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds?

Trent Rockets are the slight favourites at 49.6% win probability according to the Statz model, compared to Sunrisers Leeds at 43.9%. This is a coin-flip contest with the toss potentially decisive – Rockets gain a 6.7 percentage point edge if they bowl first.

The Rockets’ home advantage at Trent Bridge (14 wins from 19 matches since 2021) combined with their current form – two straight wins and a positive net run rate – gives them the edge. Ben Duckett’s 100% hit rate for 20+ runs is a huge asset, and their bowling attack of Henry, Amir and Santner has been tight. Sunrisers Leeds have the individual brilliance of Mitchell Marsh but lack the consistency elsewhere that the Rockets possess.

Indicative odds favour Trent Rockets at around 1.80-1.90, with Sunrisers Leeds at 1.95-2.05 across the major sportsbooks. The projected match total of 255 runs is notably below the Trent Bridge average, suggesting a tighter contest than the venue’s usual run-fest.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and hit rates on this fixture:

Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds?

A: Trent Rockets are favoured at 49.6% win probability according to Statz projections, compared to Sunrisers Leeds at 43.9%. The Rockets’ home advantage, current form and Ben Duckett’s consistency give them the edge, though this is a tight contest.

Q: What is the projected match total?

A: The Statz model projects a match total of 255 runs, well below the Trent Bridge average of 269.2. This suggests both bowling attacks will have significant input, with the first-innings total projected at around 131-132 runs.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss is neutral at Trent Bridge with teams batting first winning exactly 50% of matches this season. However, the Statz model shows Rockets gain a 6.7 percentage point edge if they bowl first (50.1% vs 43.4%), so the side winning the toss should lean towards batting first.

Q: Is Trent Rockets a good bet?

A: At indicative odds of 1.80-1.90, Rockets offer value given their 49.6% win probability. Their home record (14 wins from 19 matches), two-match winning streak and Ben Duckett’s 100% hit rate for 20+ runs all support backing them, though nothing is guaranteed in T20 cricket.