Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix Prediction, Projections & Preview
4th August 2026
Trent Rockets host Birmingham Phoenix at Trent Bridge on Wednesday for the 22nd Match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 5 August.
Rockets sit top of the table on 16 points from 5 matches with a net run rate of +0.912, having won four of their last five. Phoenix are languishing in 8th place on just 4 points from 4 matches with a net run rate of -1.855 – they have won only one game this season. This is a clash between the competition’s form side and a team desperately needing a turnaround. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix fixture page on Statz.
The Venue
Trent Bridge has been a fortress for The Hundred this season. Across the last 10 matches here, the average match total stands at 270.1 with an average first-innings score of 137.8. The ground has produced 9.7 sixes per match on average – a boundary-heavy venue with 55% of runs coming from boundaries. Trent Rockets have dominated at home, winning 15 of their last 20 T20 matches here since 2021 (W15 L5).
Seam bowlers have taken 52.8% of wickets at an economy rate of 10.26, while spinners account for 41.5% of dismissals at 9.52. The pitch is tagged as Bowler friendly by Statz. Home teams have won 55% of matches at this venue – a slight advantage to the side batting first.
Form and Table
Trent Rockets – 1st (P5 W4 L1, 16 pts)
Rockets have been the standout side in The Hundred so far. Four wins from five matches with a net run rate of +0.912 puts them clear at the top. Their last five results tell the story of a team firing on all cylinders:
- 02 Aug vs SL (H): W – TR 146/4, SL 141/4 (5 runs)
- 31 Jul vs MSG (H): W – TR 140/4, MSG 137/3 (3 runs)
- 29 Jul vs WF (H): W – TR 126/1, WF 122/7 (4 runs)
- 26 Jul vs LS (H): W – TR 160/6, LS 159/9 (4 wickets)
- 24 Jul vs BP (H): L – TR 204/7, BP 214/4 (10 runs)
Birmingham Phoenix – 8th (P4 W1 L3, 4 pts)
Phoenix are in freefall. One win from four matches and a net run rate of -1.855 leaves them bottom of the table. Their recent form away from home has been particularly grim:
- 01 Aug vs WF (A): L – BP 137/9, WF 138/3 (1 run)
- 30 Jul vs SB (A): L – BP 116/9, SB 128/8 (12 runs)
- 26 Jul vs MSG (A): L – BP 100/10, MSG 187/5 (87 runs)
- 24 Jul vs TR (H): W – BP 214/4, TR 204/7 (10 runs)
- 27 Aug 2025 vs TR (H): L – BP 111/9, TR 113/7 (3 wickets)
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trent Rockets | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | +0.912 |
| 2 | Welsh Fire | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -0.098 |
| 3 | MI London | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | +1.167 |
| … | ||||||
| 8 | Birmingham Phoenix | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1.855 |
Rockets are clear leaders and pushing hard for a playoff spot. Phoenix are in genuine trouble – they must arrest this slide immediately or face an early exit from the competition.
Head-to-Head
Trent Rockets hold the edge in this fixture. From 11 meetings, Rockets have won 4 to Phoenix’s 6, with 1 no-result. However, the recent trend favours Rockets – they won the most recent clash on 24 July 2026 at home by 10 runs (TR 204/7, BP 214/4), and also beat Phoenix by 3 wickets on 27 August 2025 at this same ground. Phoenix’s overall record at Trent Bridge since 2021 reads W2 L3 from 5 visits – they struggle on this ground.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections favour Trent Rockets decisively in this matchup.
If Trent Rockets bat first: Projected first-innings total of 133.7, match total of 256.2. Win probability – TR 53.2%, BP 40.3%, Tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 113 to 154.
If Birmingham Phoenix bat first: Projected first-innings total of 129.2, match total of 251.6. Win probability – TR 52.2%, BP 41.3%, Tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 106 to 152.
Both projected match totals (251-256) sit below the Trent Bridge average of 270.1, suggesting the model rates both batting lineups as vulnerable to the opposition bowling attacks. The projected first-innings totals of around 130-134 are also below the venue average of 137.8. Projected match total P10-P90 range: 214 to 298.
Competition Season Leaders
Run-Scorers (Top 5)
| Player | Team | Runs | Inns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Duckett | Trent Rockets | 239 | 5 |
| Jos Buttler | Manchester Super Giants | 226 | 5 |
| Mitchell Marsh | Sunrisers Leeds | 214 | 4 |
| Will Jacks | MI London | 195 | 5 |
| Finn Allen | Trent Rockets | 150 | 5 |
Wicket-Takers (Top 5)
| Player | Team | Wkts | Inns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stoinis | Southern Brave | 9 | 5 |
| Richard Gleeson | MI London | 9 | 5 |
| Adil Rashid | Southern Brave | 8 | 6 |
| Rashid Khan | MI London | 7 | 5 |
| Jofra Archer | Southern Brave | 7 | 6 |
Trent Rockets Season Leaders
Runs: Ben Duckett – 239 runs, avg 47.8, HS 75 | Finn Allen – 150 runs, avg 30.0, HS 72 | Tom Banton – 131 runs, avg 32.75, HS 67
Wickets: Craig Overton – 6 wkts, best 3 | Mitchell Santner – 5 wkts, best 3 | Mohammad Amir – 5 wkts, best 2
Birmingham Phoenix Season Leaders
Runs: Joe Clarke – 130 runs, avg 32.5, HS 68 | Will Smeed – 99 runs, avg 24.75, HS 51 | Rehan Ahmed – 77 runs, avg 19.25, HS 48
Wickets: Rehan Ahmed – 5 wkts, best 3 | Ben Dwarshuis – 4 wkts, best 2 | Scott Currie – 3 wkts, best 1
Predicted XIs
Trent Rockets (based on XI vs Sunrisers Leeds, 2 Aug 2026)
- Finn Allen
- Ben Duckett
- Aneurin Donald
- Sam Billings (c, wk)
- Tim David
- Mitchell Santner
- Lewis Gregory
- Craig Overton
- Calvin Harrison
- Matt Henry
- Mohammad Amir
Birmingham Phoenix (based on XI vs Welsh Fire, 1 Aug 2026)
- Will Smeed
- Joe Clarke (wk)
- Rehan Ahmed
- Laurie Evans
- Donovan Ferreira (c)
- Mitchell Owen
- Sean Dickson
- Chris Wood
- Scott Currie
- Saqib Mahmood
- Usman Tariq
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Ben Duckett (TR) – projected 50.9 pts. The competition’s leading run-scorer with 239 runs at 47.8 this season. Duckett has scored 20+ runs in 80% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in 80% of his last five. The safest captain choice in this fixture.
Vice Captain: Rehan Ahmed (BP) – projected 52.7 pts. The all-rounder provides dual value with 77 runs at 19.25 and 5 wickets this season. Projected for 15.7 runs and 0.95 wickets, Ahmed is Phoenix’s most consistent performer.
Also consider:
- Finn Allen (TR) – projected 50.9 pts – 150 season runs, 60% hit rate for 30+ runs
- Craig Overton (TR) – projected 58.0 pts – 6 wickets this season, 60% hit rate for 1+ wicket
- Ben Dwarshuis (BP) – projected 63.6 pts – 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket in 3 matches
Key Players
Ben Duckett (Trent Rockets)
The competition’s leading run-scorer by a distance. Duckett has amassed 239 runs at an average of 47.8 with a high score of 75 from just 5 matches. His consistency is staggering – he has scored 20+ runs in 80% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in 80% of his last five games. The Statz bet builder shows Duckett has hit 30+ runs in 80% of his recent matches. He is the player Phoenix’s bowling attack must contain.
Rehan Ahmed (Birmingham Phoenix)
Phoenix’s brightest spark in a dismal season. The all-rounder has 77 runs at 19.25 and 5 wickets from 4 matches, providing value across both disciplines. His leg-spin has been particularly effective – he has taken 1+ wicket in 75% of his matches. In a team struggling for form, Ahmed is the one player capable of turning the tide.
Craig Overton (Trent Rockets)
Rockets’ leading wicket-taker with 6 wickets from 5 matches. Overton has taken 1+ wicket in 60% of his games and 2+ wickets in 40% of matches. His economy rate of 8.1 is excellent for The Hundred format. Against a Phoenix batting order in freefall, Overton will be eager to add to his tally.
Ben Dwarshuis (Birmingham Phoenix)
Phoenix’s most reliable bowler with a 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket in 3 matches this season. Dwarshuis is projected for 1.5 wickets in this fixture and has an economy rate of 9.16. He is Phoenix’s best chance of restricting Rockets’ prolific batting lineup.
Conditions
Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Trent Bridge with temperatures around 21 degrees at the start and humidity at 62%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 3.2 km/h from the south-west – ideal conditions for cricket throughout the evening.
Who will win Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix?
Trent Rockets are strong favourites at 52.7% win probability. Rockets are in imperious form – four wins from five matches, top of the table, and unbeaten at home this season. Phoenix are in freefall with one win from four matches and a dreadful away record. Rockets’ batting is led by the competition’s leading run-scorer in Ben Duckett, while their bowling attack is balanced and economical. Phoenix have shown glimpses of quality – their 10-run win over Rockets on 24 July proves they can compete – but they lack consistency and are struggling to find form away from home.
The Statz projections give Rockets a 52-53% win probability regardless of who bats first, with projected match totals of 251-256. Rockets have won 15 of their last 20 T20 matches at Trent Bridge since 2021 and hold a 2-1 record against Phoenix at this ground. Phoenix’s net run rate of -1.855 is the worst in the competition.
This is a mismatch on current form. Rockets should win comfortably.
Best Bets and Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Ben Duckett 30+ runs – 80% season hit rate, 80% in his last 5 matches. The most bankable batting line in this game.
- Craig Overton 1+ wicket – 60% season hit rate. Rockets’ leading bowler against a Phoenix batting order in crisis.
- Rehan Ahmed 1+ wicket – 75% season hit rate. Phoenix’s most reliable bowler and their best chance of restricting Rockets.
- Ben Duckett 20+ runs – 80% season hit rate. Even more reliable than the 30+ line, with excellent odds.
Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix?
A: Trent Rockets are strong favourites at 52.7% win probability. They are top of the table with four wins from five matches and unbeaten at home this season. Birmingham Phoenix have won only one game from four and are bottom of the table. Rockets’ form and home advantage make them clear winners.
Q: What is the projected match total?
A: The Statz projections suggest a match total of around 251-256, depending on who bats first. This is below the Trent Bridge average of 270.1, indicating both batting lineups may struggle against the opposition bowling attacks. The P10-P90 range is 214 to 298.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss is a coin-flip with no clear advantage to either side at Trent Bridge. However, Rockets’ superior form and home advantage suggest they may have a slight edge in toss decision-making. Batting first offers a marginal advantage with a 53.2% win probability for Rockets compared to 52.2% if they bowl first.
Q: Is Trent Rockets a good bet?
A: Yes. At 52.7% win probability, Rockets are the clear favourites and represent value. They are in imperious form, top of the table, and have won 15 of their last 20 T20 matches at Trent Bridge. Phoenix are in freefall and have lost three of their last four matches. Indicative odds of around 1.90 make Rockets a solid betting proposition.