Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics – NBA Betting Preview (April 5 2026)

5th April 2026

Boston are missing Tatum, Brown and Vucevic. Toronto are actually favoured on form, but the market still has them at 5.13. Here’s what the data says.

Celtics open as -9.5 favourites at home despite a decimated roster – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Nikola Vucevic are all out. Payton Pritchard steps up as the primary scorer, averaging 19.1 points over the last 10 games, with Neemias Queta (11.8) and Derrick White (11.5) carrying supporting roles. This is a very different Boston side to the one that went 3-0 against Toronto this season.

Toronto, meanwhile, have a couple of streaks worth noting. Sandro Mamukelashvili is on a 7-game OVER run on both points (line 9.5, avg 16) and points+rebounds (line 14.5, avg 22.2). Brandon Ingram is going the other way – 7 games UNDER on both points+rebounds (line 25.5, avg 20) and points+assists (line 23.5, avg 17.6). Form doesn’t lie.

The Statz preview page shows Boston’s offensive rating drops to 105.3 with this injury list, while Toronto sit at 106.7 offensively. The big edge is defence – BOS hold a 96.5 defensive rating versus TOR’s 102.6. Boston’s half-court defence remains a problem for visitors even without the stars.

Pace tells part of the story too. Boston play slow (95.9), Toronto average (99.4). With a shorthanded Celtics side, expect a low-tempo, grindy game – which suits the under on 220.5.

H2H

Boston 3-0 this season, averaging +10.7 points per game. But those wins came with Tatum and Brown. This is a different game.

The Angle

Mamukelashvili over 9.5 points at 1.85 (Caesars) is the stand-out prop. Seven-game over streak, averaging 16 – the line is significantly behind his current output. Worth a single or pairing with Ingram under 23.5 points+assists (also 7-game under streak) at 1.91 on FanDuel. Track Mamukelashvili’s stats on Statz.

On the game line – hard to back Boston at 1.24 with that injury list. Toronto at 5.13 is the overlay, but this Celtics defence is still functioning. The total under 220.5 looks the cleanest play with slow pace and depleted offence.

Full preview data: statz.ai/nba/games/boston-celtics-vs-toronto-raptors-2026-04-05/preview

More NBA data: NBA stats, prop streaks and projections on Statz | Active prop streaks | Toronto Raptors team page | Boston Celtics team page