Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire Prediction, Projections & Preview
7th August 2026
Sunrisers Leeds host Welsh Fire at Headingley on Sunday for the 27th match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 13:30 BST on 9 August.
Leeds sit 5th in the table on 12 points from five matches (W3 L2), while Welsh Fire occupy 2nd on 16 points from six games (W4 L2). This is a crucial fixture in the race for the knockouts – a win for Leeds keeps their qualification hopes alive, while a win for Fire strengthens their grip on a top-four spot. For full head-to-head records, projections and live lineups, check the Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Pitch
Headingley is a batting paradise. Across the last 19 Hundred matches here since 2021, the average match total stands at 351.4 with an average first-innings score of 181.7. Seam bowlers have taken 65.3% of wickets at an economy of 12.52, while spinners have claimed 27.7% at 12.35 – both expensive. The ground favours the home side, with Sunrisers Leeds winning 52.6% of matches played here.
The pitch is tagged as a batting paradise by Statz. Boundaries are plentiful – 64.9% of runs come from fours and sixes. The top scorer position (opener) has produced the highest individual score in 9 of the last 10 matches at this venue, suggesting early aggression pays dividends.
Form and Table Position
Sunrisers Leeds – 5th (P5 W3 L2, 12 pts)
Leeds have won three of their last five but sit in the middle of the pack. Their recent form shows a mixed picture:
- 04 Aug vs LS (H): W – SL 241/2, LS 204/6
- 02 Aug vs TR (H): L – SL 141/4, TR 146/4
- 28 Jul vs MSG (H): W – SL 184/2 (88 balls), MSG 181/3
- 25 Jul vs SB (H): W – SL 187/5, SB 182/5
- 21 Jul vs MIL (H): L – SL 143/10, MIL 144/3
Welsh Fire – 2nd (P6 W4 L2, 16 pts)
Fire are one of the tournament’s form sides, sitting second and needing just one more win to virtually guarantee a knockout spot:
- 05 Aug vs MSG (A): L – WF 155/4, MSG 161/1
- 03 Aug vs SB (A): W – WF 116/4, SB 115/8
- 01 Aug vs BP (A): W – WF 138/3, BP 137/9
- 29 Jul vs TR (A): L – WF 122/7, TR 126/1
- 25 Jul vs MIL (A): W – WF 167/5, MIL 152/6
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trent Rockets | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Welsh Fire | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | MI London | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Manchester Super Giants | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Sunrisers Leeds | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
Head-to-Head Record
The all-time record between these sides is level. In five meetings, each team has won two with one no-result. The most recent clash saw Sunrisers Leeds edge a tight contest, but Welsh Fire have shown they can compete anywhere. At Headingley, Leeds hold a strong home record – they have won 11 of 21 Hundred matches here since 2021 (52.4%), while Fire have played only twice at this venue, winning once.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections make this a coin-flip contest with a slight edge to the home side.
If Sunrisers Leeds bat first: Projected first-innings total of 184, match total of 354.9. Win probability – SL 50%, WF 43.5%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 157 to 212.
If Welsh Fire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 181.2, match total of 352.1. Win probability – SL 48%, WF 45.5%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 152 to 210.
Both projected match totals (352-355) sit just above the Headingley average of 351.4, suggesting the model rates this as a standard batting paradise contest. The projected first-innings totals of around 182 are marginally above the venue average of 181.7.
Season Leaders – The Hundred 2026
Top Run-Scorers
| Player | Team | Runs | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Marsh | Sunrisers Leeds | 290 | 5 |
| Jos Buttler | Manchester Super Giants | 277 | 6 |
| Ben Duckett | Trent Rockets | 261 | 6 |
| Will Jacks | MI London | 213 | 6 |
| Matthew Short | Welsh Fire | 195 | 5 |
Top Wicket-Takers
| Player | Team | Wkts | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Gleeson | MI London | 10 | 6 |
| Marcus Stoinis | Southern Brave | 9 | 5 |
| Adil Rashid | Southern Brave | 8 | 6 |
| Trent Boult | MI London | 8 | 6 |
| Rashid Khan | MI London | 7 | 5 |
Sunrisers Leeds Season Leaders
Runs: Mitchell Marsh – 290 runs, avg 58.0, HS 76 | Ryan Rickelton – 169 runs, avg 33.8, HS 94 | Harry Brook – 154 runs, avg 30.8, HS 55
Wickets: Nathan Ellis – 7 wkts, avg 1.4 | Brydon Carse – 5 wkts, avg 1.0 | Abrar Ahmed – 3 wkts, avg 0.6
Welsh Fire Season Leaders
Runs: Matthew Short – 195 runs, avg 39.0, HS 71 | Rachin Ravindra – 159 runs, avg 26.5, HS 98 | Philip Salt – 156 runs, avg 26.0, HS 48
Wickets: Lockie Ferguson – 6 wkts, avg 1.0 | Samuel Cook – 6 wkts, avg 1.0 | Rachin Ravindra – 5 wkts, avg 0.83
Predicted XIs
Sunrisers Leeds (based on XI vs London Spirit, 4 Aug 2026)
- Mitchell Marsh
- Ryan Rickelton (wk)
- Zak Crawley (c)
- Harry Brook
- Daniel Lawrence
- Matthew Revis
- Brydon Carse
- Matty Potts
- Nathan Ellis
- Reece Topley
- Abrar Ahmed
Welsh Fire (based on XI vs Manchester Super Giants, 5 Aug 2026)
- Philip Salt (c, wk)
- Matthew Short
- Joe Root
- Rachin Ravindra
- Jordan Cox (wk)
- Tom Kohler-Cadmore
- Ben Kellaway
- Marco Jansen
- Chris Woakes
- Lockie Ferguson
- Samuel Cook
These lineups are based on the most recent XI for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for confirmed lineups and toss updates on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Mitchell Marsh (SL) – projected 96.3 pts when SL bat first, 89.9 pts when WF bat first. The Australian all-rounder has been in devastating form with 290 runs at 58.0 and a strike rate of 182.5. He has scored 20+ runs in 100% of his matches this season (5 from 5) and 30+ runs in 100% of his last five. A captain lock.
Vice Captain: Rachin Ravindra (WF) – projected 59.9 pts when WF bat first, 57.8 pts when SL bat first. The New Zealand all-rounder brings dual value with 159 runs and 5 wickets this season. He has taken a wicket in 80% of his last five matches and provides both batting and bowling upside.
Also consider:
- Harry Brook (SL) – projected 49 pts – 154 season runs, 60% hit rate for 30+ runs in last five
- Matthew Short (WF) – projected 54.7 pts – 195 season runs, 60% hit rate for 30+ runs
- Nathan Ellis (SL) – projected 42.7 pts – 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket this season (7 from 7)
- Lockie Ferguson (WF) – projected 49 pts – 6 wickets this season, 40% hit rate for 2+ wickets
Key Players
Mitchell Marsh (Sunrisers Leeds)
The standout performer in this Leeds side. Marsh has 290 runs at an average of 58.0 with a strike rate of 182.5 – he is the leading run-scorer in The Hundred so far. More impressively, he has scored 20+ runs in every single match this season (100% hit rate) and 30+ runs in 100% of his last five. His last three scores of 63, 41 and 76 show relentless consistency. At Headingley, where the opener position dominates, Marsh is the obvious captain choice.
Matthew Short (Welsh Fire)
Fire’s most consistent batter with 195 runs at 39.0 and a high score of 71. Short has hit 20+ runs in 80% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in 60% – a strike rate of 139.4 suggests he is aggressive without being reckless. His last three scores of 36, 60 and 71 show he is in excellent form heading into this fixture.
Nathan Ellis (Sunrisers Leeds)
The Australian quick has been relentless with the ball. Ellis has taken 7 wickets in 5 matches – a 100% hit rate for taking at least one wicket in every game. His last three returns of 2, 1 and 2 wickets show he is a constant threat. At a venue where seam bowlers take 65.3% of wickets, Ellis is a key player in the Leeds attack.
Rachin Ravindra (Welsh Fire)
The New Zealand all-rounder is Fire’s most valuable asset. With 159 runs and 5 wickets, Ravindra provides balance across the lineup. He has taken a wicket in 80% of his last five matches and hit 20+ runs in 60% of his season appearances. His ability to contribute with bat and ball makes him a genuine match-winner.
Conditions
Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Headingley with temperatures around 19 degrees Celsius. Humidity sits at 65% with a light breeze of 4.3 km/h from the west. No rain is expected during the match – ideal batting conditions throughout.
Who will win Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire?
Sunrisers Leeds are the slight favourites at 49% win probability, though this is a genuine coin-flip contest. The home advantage at Headingley (52.6% win rate) combined with Leeds’ recent form – they have won three of their last five – gives them the edge. However, Welsh Fire’s position at the top of the table and their away record (W4 L2) cannot be ignored.
The Statz projections show that if Leeds bat first, they improve to 50% win probability. If Fire bat first, Leeds still hold 48% – a marginal advantage either way. The key will be how the openers perform at a venue where the opener position has dominated in 9 of the last 10 matches.
Indicative odds: Sunrisers Leeds are available at around 1.95 across the major bookmakers, with Welsh Fire at 1.80. These odds reflect the tight nature of the contest.
Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Mitchell Marsh 20+ runs – 100% season hit rate. He has scored 20+ in every single match. The most bankable batting line in this game.
- Nathan Ellis 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate. He has taken a wicket in all 7 of his matches this season. As reliable as it gets.
- Matthew Short 20+ runs – 80% hit rate in his last five matches, 80% for the season. Fire’s most consistent batter.
- Harry Brook 20+ runs – 60% hit rate for the season, 60% in his last five. A solid mid-range option with upside.
Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire?
A: Sunrisers Leeds are slight favourites at 49% win probability according to Statz projections, though this is a coin-flip contest. Home advantage at Headingley (52.6% win rate) and recent form (W3 L2) give Leeds the edge, but Welsh Fire’s position at the top of the table (W4 L2) makes them dangerous.
Q: What is the projected match total?
A: The Statz projections show a match total of 354.9 if Leeds bat first and 352.1 if Fire bat first. Both sit marginally above the Headingley average of 351.4, suggesting a high-scoring contest on a batting paradise pitch.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss is unpredictable, but the Statz projections show that if Sunrisers Leeds bat first, they improve their win probability to 50%. If Welsh Fire bat first, Leeds still hold 48% – suggesting a marginal advantage to batting first at this venue.
Q: Is Sunrisers Leeds a good bet at 1.95?
A: At 49% win probability, Sunrisers Leeds at 1.95 offers fair value. The odds suggest a 51% implied probability of a Leeds win, which aligns closely with the Statz model. Home advantage and recent form support the pick, though nothing is guaranteed in T20 cricket.