London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix Prediction, Projections & Preview
7th August 2026
London Spirit host Birmingham Phoenix at Lord’s on Sunday for the 28th match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:00 BST on 9 August. For full head-to-head records, live projections and detailed match analysis, check the fixture page on Statz.
Both sides are fighting for their tournament lives. London Spirit sit 7th in the table on 4 points from 5 matches (W1 L4), while Birmingham Phoenix are 8th on 4 points from 4 matches (W1 L3). With the group stage entering its final stretch, this is a must-win for both teams if they harbour any hopes of reaching the knockout stages. The gap between 6th and 7th is just 4 points – a victory here could shift the entire complexion of their campaigns.
The Venue and Toss
Lord’s has been a bowler-friendly ground in The Hundred this season. Across 10 recent matches here, the average match total stands at 265.6 with an average first-innings score of 145.9. Seam bowlers have dominated, taking 60.3% of wickets at an economy rate of 10.17, while spinners have been more economical at 9.05 but account for 33.3% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Bowler friendly by Statz.
London Spirit have a strong home record at Lord’s – they have won 7 of their last 18 matches here since 2021, with a highest score of 93. Birmingham Phoenix, by contrast, have won just 2 of their 3 away visits to Lord’s since 2021, though they did post a highest score of 81 in one of those matches. The toss will favour the side that can bat first and build a total on what looks a tricky surface – expect the winning captain to bat.
Form and Table Position
London Spirit – 7th (P5 W1 L4, 4 pts)
Spirit have endured a difficult campaign. Their sole win came on 29 July against MI London (165/3 chasing 164/5), but they have lost their last two matches heavily – to Sunrisers Leeds (204/6 vs 241/2) on 4 August and to Southern Brave (105/10 vs 111/5) on 1 August. Their form reads:
- 04 Aug vs SL (A): L – LS 204/6, SL 241/2
- 01 Aug vs SB (H): L – LS 105/10 (92 balls), SB 111/5 (97 balls)
- 29 Jul vs MIL (H): W – LS 165/3 (89 balls), MIL 164/5 (100 balls)
- 26 Jul vs TR (A): L – LS 159/9, TR 160/6 (98 balls)
- 23 Jul vs MSG (H): L – LS 131/6, MSG 138/9
Birmingham Phoenix – 8th (P4 W1 L3, 4 pts)
Phoenix have been equally inconsistent. Their sole win came on 24 July against Trent Rockets (214/4 vs 204/7), but they have lost three straight since then, including a heavy defeat to Manchester Super Giants (100/10 vs 187/5) on 26 July. Their recent form reads:
- 05 Aug vs TR (A): L – BP 111/6, TR 116/3 (83 balls)
- 01 Aug vs WF (A): L – BP 137/9, WF 138/3 (96 balls)
- 30 Jul vs SB (A): L – BP 116/9, SB 128/8
- 26 Jul vs MSG (A): L – BP 100/10 (97 balls), MSG 187/5
- 24 Jul vs TR (H): W – BP 214/4, TR 204/7
Head-to-Head
This is a one-sided fixture. Birmingham Phoenix have dominated the recent record, winning all 5 of their last meetings against London Spirit. The most recent clash came earlier this season, and Phoenix have shown a clear edge in this matchup. However, form can shift quickly in The Hundred, and Spirit will be desperate to break that streak at home.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip contest with a slight lean to Birmingham Phoenix.
If London Spirit bat first: Projected first-innings total of 137.8, match total of 266.6. Win probability – LS 45%, BP 48.5%, no result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 116 to 160.
If Birmingham Phoenix bat first: Projected first-innings total of 137.6, match total of 266.3. Win probability – LS 41.5%, BP 52%, no result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 115 to 160.
Both projected match totals (266-267) sit marginally above the Lord’s average of 265.6, suggesting the model rates both lineups as capable of posting competitive totals. The projected first-innings totals of around 138 are slightly below the venue average of 145.9 – expect a tight contest on a surface that will reward discipline and punish loose cricket. Match total P10-P90 range: 228 to 305.
Predicted Lineups
London Spirit (based on XI vs Sunrisers Leeds, 4 Aug 2026)
- Lhuan-dre Pretorius
- Jonny Bairstow (wk)
- James Rew
- Liam Livingstone (c)
- Dewald Brevis
- James Coles
- Jamie Overton
- David Willey
- Andrew Tye
- Adam Milne
- Adam Zampa
Birmingham Phoenix (based on XI vs Trent Rockets, 5 Aug 2026)
- Will Smeed
- Mitchell Owen
- Joe Clarke (wk)
- Rehan Ahmed
- Laurie Evans
- Donovan Ferreira (c)
- Sean Dickson
- Ben Dwarshuis
- Chris Wood
- Saqib Mahmood
- Usman Tariq
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Ben Dwarshuis (BP) – projected 58.9 pts when BP bat second. The Australian quick has taken a wicket in every single match this season (100% hit rate) and projects for 1.41 wickets plus valuable batting contributions at number 8.
Vice Captain: Liam Livingstone (LS) – projected 52.5 pts when LS bat first. The England all-rounder has 157 runs at 31.4 average this season plus the ability to contribute with the ball. His 60% hit rate for 30+ runs makes him a reliable captain choice.
Also consider:
- Jonny Bairstow (LS) – projected 46.5 pts – 79 season runs, strong form at Lord’s
- Joe Clarke (BP) – projected 38.4 average, 192 season runs, 80% hit rate for 20+ runs
- David Willey (LS) – projected 54 pts – 5 wickets this season, 80% hit rate for 1+ wicket
Key Players
Liam Livingstone (London Spirit)
Spirit’s captain and their most important player. Livingstone has 157 runs at an average of 31.4 with a high score of 69, plus he has taken 4 wickets with his leg-spin. He hits 30+ runs in 60% of matches and 20+ in 60% of his last 5 games – a genuine match-winner on both sides of the ball. In a must-win game, Spirit will rely heavily on his ability to dominate.
Joe Clarke (Birmingham Phoenix)
Phoenix’s leading run-scorer with 192 runs at an average of 38.4 and a high score of 68. Clarke has hit 20+ runs in 80% of his matches this season and 30+ in 60% of games – extraordinary consistency for a top-order batter. His form is the foundation upon which Phoenix’s batting is built.
Dewald Brevis (London Spirit)
The South African batter has been Spirit’s most consistent run-scorer with 137 runs at 27.4 average. Brevis hits 20+ runs in 80% of his matches – the highest hit rate in this fixture – and has posted scores of 37, 38 and 39 in his last three innings. He is the one Spirit batter who has found consistent form.
Ben Dwarshuis (Birmingham Phoenix)
The Australian pace bowler has been Phoenix’s most reliable bowler, taking a wicket in all 4 of his matches this season (100% hit rate). He projects for 1.41 wickets per match and brings genuine pace to a Phoenix attack that needs to perform under pressure.
Conditions
Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Lord’s with temperatures around 20 degrees. Humidity sits at 58% with light winds at 4.2 km/h from the south-west. No rain is expected. The conditions should remain stable throughout the match, with the surface likely to remain firm and true.
Who will win London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix?
Birmingham Phoenix are slight favourites at 50.3% win probability, according to the Statz projections. The verdict leans Phoenix, though this is a genuine coin-flip contest with nothing to separate the sides on paper.
Phoenix’s recent head-to-head dominance (5-0 record) and the fact that they gain a 52% win probability if they bowl first gives them an edge. However, London Spirit have home advantage at Lord’s, where they have won 7 of their last 18 matches. Livingstone’s form and the quality of their bowling attack – led by David Willey and Adam Zampa – means Spirit cannot be written off. Both teams are desperate, and desperation can breed performance. This is genuinely too close to call with confidence.
Best Bets and Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Joe Clarke 20+ runs – 80% season hit rate. Phoenix’s most consistent batter and a strong captain pick for fantasy.
- Ben Dwarshuis 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate. He has taken a wicket in every single match this season – as reliable as it gets.
- Dewald Brevis 20+ runs – 80% season hit rate. Spirit’s most consistent run-scorer and a key player in their survival push.
- David Willey 1+ wicket – 80% season hit rate. Spirit’s leading wicket-taker with 5 dismissals this season.
London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix?
A: Birmingham Phoenix are slight favourites at 50.3% win probability according to Statz projections, but this is a coin-flip contest. Phoenix have won all 5 recent head-to-head meetings, but Spirit have home advantage at Lord’s and cannot be ruled out.
Q: What is the projected match total?
A: The Statz model projects a match total of 266-267 runs, slightly above the Lord’s average of 265.6. Expect a tight contest on a bowler-friendly pitch that will reward discipline.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss is not predictable, but the winning captain will almost certainly choose to bat first on a surface that looks tricky for batting. Batting first offers a 48.5% win probability for the away side and 45% for the home side.
Q: Is Birmingham Phoenix a good bet?
A: Phoenix are slight favourites at 50.3% win probability and gain a 52% win probability if they bowl first. However, the odds are indicative and this is far from settled – Spirit’s home advantage and Livingstone’s form mean this is a genuine toss-up.