Serie A Betting Preview: Sunday 17 May 2026 – Best Bets and Predictions
16th May 2026
Derby della Capitale to open the Serie A Sunday slate. Roma vs Lazio at 10:00 – and if that doesn’t get you out of bed, nothing will. Ten fixtures across the day and Statz has some monster projections. Let’s go through them.
Roma vs Lazio (10:00)
The Derby della Capitale. Roma project 1.84 goals at home vs Lazio’s 0.79. Roma win this 60.41% of the time. BTTS at 45.93% – Lazio can’t be written off for a goal. Over 2.5 sits at 48.90%. This is a proper derby so form goes out the window, but the numbers heavily favour Roma. Watch for the atmosphere to play a part in the first half.
Pisa vs Napoli (10:00)
Napoli project 1.84 goals vs Pisa’s 0.85. The Neapolitans win 59.11% of the time. Clean sheet Napoli at a healthy 42.63% – this looks like a controlled away win for Napoli.
Juventus vs Fiorentina (10:00)
Juventus at home project 2.21 goals vs Fiorentina’s 0.82. Juve win 67.33%. Over 2.5 at 58.48% – Juve’s attacking output is significant here. A strong home win projection.
Genoa vs AC Milan (10:00)
Genoa project 1.22 goals, Milan 1.48. Milan win 42.08%. BTTS at 54.34% – both teams expected to score in what should be an open game.
Como vs Parma (10:00)
Como’s numbers are remarkable – 2.23 goals projected vs Parma’s 0.54. Como win 74.64%. Clean sheet probability for Como at 58.27%. This looks like a comfortable home win.
Inter vs Hellas Verona (13:00)
The standout number of the whole day. Inter project 2.77 goals at the San Siro vs Verona’s 0.75. Inter win 78.28%. Over 2.5 at 68.28% – if you’re building an acca, Inter over 2.5 total goals looks seriously attractive. This is a side that can turn on the style at home.
Atalanta vs Bologna (16:00)
Atalanta project 1.79 goals vs Bologna’s 1.01. Atalanta win 53.9%. BTTS at 52.8% – Bologna can contribute in open games. A competitive fixture but Atalanta’s home advantage shows in the projections.
Udinese vs Cremonese (18:45)
Udinese project 1.61 goals vs Cremonese’s 0.95. Udinese win 50.76% – a narrow home favourite projection.
Sassuolo vs Lecce (18:45)
Sassuolo project 1.53 goals vs Lecce’s 0.97. Sassuolo win 48.39% – tight numbers but the home side edge it.
Cagliari vs Torino (18:45)
The tightest game of the day. Cagliari 1.28 goals vs Torino 1.21. The draw sits at 29.59% – this one could genuinely go any way.
Top Betting Angles
- Inter vs Verona over 2.5 goals – 68.28% probability, Inter project 2.77 goals alone
- Juventus win – 67.33% win probability at home, 2.21 goals projected vs Fiorentina’s 0.82
- Roma vs Lazio – Roma win – 60.41% at home in the derby, 1.84 goals projected
Full Serie A projections and the Serie A competition page on Statz have everything you need before placing.