Ligue 1 Betting Preview: Sunday 17 May 2026 – Best Bets and Predictions
16th May 2026
Nine Ligue 1 fixtures on Sunday evening and Statz is flagging serious goal numbers across the board. Paris FC vs PSG is the headline act but there are BTTS angles all over this slate. Strap in.
Paris FC vs PSG (19:00)
Paris FC host PSG – and it’s as lopsided as you’d expect. PSG project 2.18 goals vs Paris FC’s 0.94. PSG win 64.17%. Over 2.5 at 60.24%. PSG clean sheet at 39.23% – they can keep it tight when they need to or turn the jets on. This is a derby in name but not in competitive terms right now.
Strasbourg vs Monaco (19:00)
The BTTS game of the day. Strasbourg project 1.85 goals, Monaco 1.60. BTTS at 67.38% – that’s the joint-highest of the entire Sunday slate across all four leagues. Over 2.5 at 67.13%. Both these teams want to play football and the numbers show it. Worth noting for any goals accas.
Marseille vs Rennes (19:00)
Marseille at home project 1.70 goals vs Rennes’ 1.63. BTTS at 65.71%, over 2.5 at 64.64%. Extraordinarily even numbers – the model essentially sees these as equals. Goals are expected from both ends.
Lyon vs Lens (19:00)
Lyon project 1.54 goals vs Lens’ 1.81. Lens shade it with a 43.03% win probability. BTTS at 65.66% – another goals game. Lens’ away goal threat is significant here.
Nice vs Metz (19:00)
Nice project 1.74 goals vs Metz’s 1.16. Nice win 49.45%. BTTS at 56.5% – Metz aren’t just there to make up the numbers in this one.
Nantes vs Toulouse (19:00)
The cagiest game of the day. Nantes 1.20 goals, Toulouse 1.18. Draw at 30.59%. Over 2.5 at just 42.47%. If you want a tight match, here it is.
Lorient vs Le Havre (19:00)
Lorient project 1.60 goals vs Le Havre’s 1.08. Lorient win 47.51%. Lorient are slight home favourites in a mid-table Ligue 1 clash.
Lille vs Auxerre (19:00)
Lille project 1.58 goals vs Auxerre’s 0.71. Lille win 56.48%. Clean sheet Lille at 49.35% – almost a coin flip for a Lille shutout. If you’re looking for a European-calibre side to back at home, Lille vs Auxerre has appeal.
Brest vs Angers (19:00)
Brest project 1.43 goals vs Angers’ 1.03. Brest win 44.54%. A decent home favourite without being a standout angle.
Top Betting Angles
- Strasbourg vs Monaco BTTS – 67.38% probability, both teams projecting 1.60+ goals
- PSG win vs Paris FC – 64.17%, the gulf in quality is significant and PSG project 2.18 goals
- Marseille vs Rennes over 2.5 – 64.64%, both teams project 1.60+ goals in an evenly matched fixture
See the full Ligue 1 fixture projections and Ligue 1 competition page on Statz for all the numbers.