Seattle Orcas vs Texas Super Kings Preview – Major League Cricket 2026 | Statz

4th July 2026

Seattle Orcas host Texas Super Kings at the Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium in Pomona on Saturday, 5 July 2026, in a Major League Cricket clash with both sides fighting for playoff positioning. First ball is at 21:30 UTC.

The Orcas sit third in the standings on 6 points from 7 matches (W3 L4), while the Super Kings are fourth on 6 points from 6 matches (W3 L3). Both teams are locked on points but the Super Kings have a game in hand – a win here would move them level with the top two. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Seattle Orcas vs Texas Super Kings fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

The Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium has hosted just three matches in Major League Cricket so far, making it a relatively unknown quantity. The average match total across those three games is 275, with an average first-innings score of 160. Seam bowling has dominated here – accounting for 82.5% of wickets at an economy rate of 7.39, while spinners have taken 12.5% at 6.53. The pitch is tagged as bowler-friendly by Statz.

Seattle’s record at this ground reads W0 L1 from their single visit, with Marcus Stoinis top-scoring with 36 runs in that match. Texas have also played once here, losing to Los Angeles Knight Riders on 4 July 2026 – Saiteja Mukkamalla hit 80 runs in that defeat. The small sample size means conditions remain unpredictable, but the early data suggests a bowler’s surface where pace will be the primary threat.

Form and Table

Seattle Orcas – 3rd (P7 W3 L4, 6 pts)

The Orcas have stuttered through the first half of the season, winning just three of seven matches. Their most recent outing was a heavy defeat to MI New York on 3 July, where they managed only 127/9 chasing 132. Before that came a convincing win over Los Angeles Knight Riders on 28 June (154/7 vs 134/8). The form reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five – inconsistency has been the story of their campaign so far.

Texas Super Kings – 4th (P6 W3 L3, 6 pts)

Texas have been similarly patchy, winning three and losing three from their six matches. They lost narrowly to Los Angeles on 4 July (173/5 vs 175/4 in 18.4 overs), a match that showed their batting firepower but also their vulnerability in tight contests. Before that came back-to-back defeats to Washington Freedom and MI New York. The Super Kings have the game in hand and the opportunity to climb the table with a win here.

Head-to-Head

Texas Super Kings hold a commanding advantage in this fixture. From six previous meetings, the Super Kings have won four to Seattle’s two. More concerning for the Orcas is their recent form in this matchup – they have lost their last four consecutive meetings with Texas. The most recent clash saw Texas win, and that trend strongly favours the visitors. Check the full H2H stats and projections on Statz for deeper analysis.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections favour Texas Super Kings in this contest, though the margin is narrow.

If Seattle bat first: Projected first-innings total of 169.7, match total of 330.3. Win probability – Seattle 43.4%, Texas 54.6%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 143 to 197.

If Texas bat first: Projected first-innings total of 173.1, match total of 333.7. Win probability – Seattle 43.4%, Texas 54.6%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 148 to 198.

The projected match totals of 330-334 sit well above the venue average of 275, suggesting the Statz model expects a higher-scoring game than the limited data at this ground has shown. The win probability remains consistent regardless of batting order – Texas are favoured at 54.6% to Seattle’s 43.4%, with a 2% tie-or-no-result probability.

Season Leaders

Seattle Orcas

Runs: Tim Seifert – 275 runs at 39.29, HS 104 | Shayan Jahangir – 204 runs at 29.14, HS 78 | Matthew Breetzke – 165 runs at 23.57, HS 66

Wickets: Jasdeep Singh – 14 wickets at 2.0 per match | Ottneil Baartman – 13 wickets at 1.86 per match | Marcus Stoinis – 10 wickets at 1.67 per match

Texas Super Kings

Runs: Saiteja Mukkamalla – 209 runs at 29.86, HS 80 | Faf du Plessis – 194 runs at 32.33, HS 113 | Wiaan Mulder – 153 runs at 21.86, HS 43

Wickets: Amshi de Silva – 9 wickets at 1.29 per match | Adam Milne – 8 wickets at 1.33 per match

Predicted XIs

Seattle Orcas (based on XI vs MI New York, 3 Jul 2026)

  1. Tim Seifert (wk)
  2. Shayan Jahangir
  3. Matthew Breetzke
  4. Shimron Hetmyer
  5. Marcus Stoinis (c)
  6. Shehan Jayasuriya
  7. Dasun Shanaka
  8. Harmeet Singh
  9. Cameron Gannon
  10. Jasdeep Singh
  11. Ottneil Baartman

Texas Super Kings (based on XI vs Los Angeles Knight Riders, 4 Jul 2026)

  1. Faf du Plessis (c)
  2. Rilee Rossouw
  3. Saiteja Mukkamalla
  4. Shubham Ranjane
  5. Donovan Ferreira (wk)
  6. Wiaan Mulder
  7. Calvin Savage
  8. Adam Milne
  9. Amshi de Silva
  10. Abhimanyu Lamba
  11. Dian Forrester

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Key Players

Faf du Plessis (Texas Super Kings)

The South African veteran has been Texas’s standout performer this season with 194 runs at an average of 32.33 and a high score of 113. Du Plessis brings world-class experience and consistency to the top order. His projected 38.3 runs in the Statz model when Texas bat first makes him the highest-rated captain pick for this fixture, with 81.3 projected Dream11 points. He has hit 12 sixes this season – a strike rate of aggression that can change the complexion of an innings in minutes.

Tim Seifert (Seattle Orcas)

The New Zealand wicketkeeper has been Seattle’s most prolific batter with 275 runs at 39.29 from 7 matches, including a high score of 104. Seifert has hit 21 sixes this season – more than any other Seattle player – and carries a 57.1% hit rate for 20+ runs. His projected 32.8 runs and 76.2 Dream11 points make him a key player in Seattle’s hopes of posting a competitive total.

Jasdeep Singh (Seattle Orcas)

The all-rounder has been Seattle’s leading wicket-taker with 14 dismissals in 7 matches – an average of 2.0 per game. Jasdeep has taken 1+ wicket in 85.7% of his matches this season and 2+ wickets in 57.1%. His projected 1.42 wickets and 78.7 Dream11 points make him a crucial cog in the Orcas’ bowling attack, particularly on a bowler-friendly surface like this one.

Adam Milne (Texas Super Kings)

The New Zealand pace bowler has taken 8 wickets in 6 matches for Texas at an average of 1.33 per game. Milne has taken 1+ wicket in 83.3% of his matches and 2+ wickets in 50%. His projected 1.36 wickets and 73.9 Dream11 points, combined with the bowler-friendly conditions at this venue, make him a dangerous proposition for Seattle’s batting lineup.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Pomona with temperatures around 28 degrees Celsius and humidity at 45%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 6.8 km/h from the southwest – conditions that should favour pace bowling throughout the match.

Verdict and Betting Angles

The Statz projections make this a lean towards Texas Super Kings. The Super Kings’ 54.6% win probability, combined with their commanding 4-2 head-to-head record and four consecutive victories in this fixture, paint a clear picture. The bowler-friendly nature of the Fairgrounds Stadium also suits Texas’s seam attack, with Adam Milne and Amshi de Silva well-equipped to exploit the conditions.

Seattle’s inconsistency this season – three wins from seven matches – and their recent form (one win in five) suggest they lack the momentum to overturn the odds. However, Tim Seifert‘s aggressive batting and Jasdeep Singh‘s bowling prowess keep them competitive.

The verdict: Texas Super Kings are the pick at 54.6% win probability.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: