Seattle Orcas vs MI New York Preview – MLC 2026 | Statz

2nd July 2026

Seattle Orcas take on MI New York at the Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium (Knight Riders Cricket Field) in Pomona on Friday in Major League Cricket 2026. First ball is at 7:00 AM IST (2:30 AM BST).

Both sides come into this one level on wins and losses. Second-placed Seattle Orcas have 6 points from 6 matches (W3 L3), while MI New York sit 5th with 4 points from 4 games (W2 L2). With the table incredibly tight and both teams harbouring playoff ambitions, this is a match neither can afford to lose.

Full match data, projections and player stats are available on the Statz fixture page.

The Venue

The Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium is a venue with minimal data to work with. Just one T20 has been played here – Los Angeles Knight Riders’ 108/10 against Washington Freedom’s 110/4 on July 2 – producing a combined match total of just 218 runs.

That solitary match painted a picture of a surface that firmly favours the seamers. Pace bowlers claimed 85.7% of wickets at an economy rate of 6.40, while spin accounted for just 14.3% at 6.25. The batting-first team lost that single contest, and boundaries made up 46.8% of runs scored.

Neither Seattle Orcas nor MI New York have played at this ground before, so there is no team-specific venue history to draw on. One match is far too small a sample to draw firm conclusions, and the Statz projections model expects a considerably higher-scoring affair.

Form and Table

Seattle Orcas (2nd – P6 W3 L3 – 6pts) come in off a win over Los Angeles Knight Riders on June 28, chasing down 134 with 154/7. Their last five results read W-L-W-L-W – a rollercoaster that included an 88-run demolition of Washington Freedom (227/6 to 139/10) alongside a forgettable collapse to just 115 all out against LAKR on June 21.

Last 5 results:

MI New York (5th – P4 W2 L2 – 4pts) have played fewer games but carry a similar 50% win rate. Their most recent outing was a comfortable 41-run victory over LAKR on June 27 (144/6 to 103/10). They were beaten by Texas Super Kings on June 26 (127/9 to 132/4) but produced a clinical eight-wicket chase against the same opponents days earlier (162/2 chasing 158). A 30-run defeat to Washington Freedom on June 21 rounds out their 2026 results so far.

Last 4 results (2026 season):

MLC 2026 Standings

Pos Team P W L Pts
1 San Francisco Unicorns 5 3 2 6
2 Seattle Orcas 6 3 3 6
3 Texas Super Kings 6 3 3 6
4 Los Angeles Knight Riders 4 2 2 4
5 MI New York 4 2 2 4
6 Washington Freedom 5 2 3 4

The top four qualify for the playoffs. Three teams are locked on 6 points and three on 4 – it could hardly be tighter. Seattle Orcas have approximately 4 matches remaining, while MI New York have around 6 games still to play.

Head-to-Head

These two have met 5 times since 2023 (Statz data), with MI New York holding the edge at 3-2.

The most recent meeting came on June 28, 2025, when Seattle Orcas chased down MI New York’s 237/4 with 238/7 in a thrilling final-ball finish at Grand Prairie Stadium. Prior to that, MINY had won three consecutive encounters – including a seven-wicket hammering at Grand Prairie in July 2023 where they chased down 183/9 in just 16 overs.

Neither side has played at the Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium before, so there is no venue-specific head-to-head record.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections model gives MI New York the edge regardless of the toss outcome.

If Seattle Orcas bat first:

If MI New York bat first:

The projected match totals of 330-333 are significantly higher than the single completed match at this ground (218), reflecting the model’s assessment of team quality rather than one low-scoring outlier. Expect a far more competitive batting display than that first outing at the Fairgrounds suggested.

MLC 2026 Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top Run Scorers

  1. Mitchell Owen (WSF) – 343 runs (6 innings)
  2. Lhuan-dre Pretorius (SFU) – 297 runs (5 innings)
  3. Tim Seifert (SO) – 266 runs (6 innings)
  4. Shayan Jahangir (SO) – 196 runs (6 innings)
  5. Faf du Plessis (TSK) – 180 runs (5 innings)

Purple Cap – Top Wicket Takers

  1. Jasdeep Singh (SO) – 12 wickets (6 innings)
  2. Ottneil Baartman (SO) – 11 wickets (6 innings)
  3. Andre Russell (LAKR) – 9 wickets (4 innings)
  4. Sunil Narine (LAKR) – 9 wickets (5 innings)
  5. Corbin Bosch (MINY) – 8 wickets (4 innings)

Seattle Orcas dominate the bowling charts with Jasdeep Singh and Ottneil Baartman occupying the top two spots. That pace duo has been lethal and gives the Orcas a genuine edge with the ball.

Seattle Orcas – Season Leaders

MI New York – Season Leaders

Predicted XIs

Seattle Orcas (based on XI from 28 Jun vs Los Angeles Knight Riders)

  1. Tim Seifert (WK)
  2. Shayan Jahangir
  3. Matthew Breetzke
  4. Shimron Hetmyer
  5. Marcus Stoinis (C)
  6. Harmeet Singh
  7. Dasun Shanaka
  8. Cameron Gannon
  9. Ali Sheikh
  10. Ottneil Baartman
  11. Jasdeep Singh

MI New York (based on XI from 27 Jun vs Los Angeles Knight Riders)

  1. Quinton de Kock (WK)
  2. Kunwarjeet Singh
  3. Nicholas Pooran (C)
  4. Tajinder Singh
  5. Kieron Pollard
  6. Corey Anderson
  7. Romario Shepherd
  8. Corbin Bosch
  9. Trent Boult
  10. Rushil Ugarkar
  11. Nosthush Kenjige

These XIs are based on each team’s most recent match. Always check the Statz fixture page for confirmed lineups after the toss.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on Statz projected Dream11 points (players in the predicted XI only):

Captain: Corbin Bosch (MINY) – 94.6 projected pts

The South African all-rounder leads the Dream11 projections by a clear margin. With 8 wickets already this season and handy lower-order contributions (60 runs, HS 35), Bosch offers multi-dimensional value. His projected 1.64 wickets per game combined with batting and fielding make him the standout captaincy pick.

Vice Captain: Marcus Stoinis (SO) – 81.8 projected pts

Seattle’s skipper is projected for 20-22 runs and 0.86 wickets, making him a reliable all-round performer. Seven wickets this season alongside his batting role gives him consistent Dream11 upside.

Also consider:

Key Players

Tim Seifert (SO) – The New Zealander is the competition’s third-highest run scorer with 266 runs at 44.33, including a century (HS 104). His 20+ runs hit rate of 66.7% this season makes him one of the most reliable batting options in MLC 2026. With a projected 31-34 runs per game, he is central to Seattle’s plans. Check his odds on the Statz bet builder.

Corbin Bosch (MINY) – The competition’s fifth-highest wicket-taker with 8 scalps in 4 matches, Bosch is a genuine match-winner. His 1+ wicket hit rate stands at 75% this season, and he grabbed 4 wickets in his most recent outing against LAKR. He chips in with the bat too – 60 runs including a top score of 35. A genuine all-round threat on a surface that should suit his pace.

Jasdeep Singh (SO) – The Purple Cap holder with 12 wickets in 6 innings has been the standout bowler in MLC 2026. His 1+ wicket hit rate is 83.3% and he returned figures of 5 wickets in his most recent outing. On a surface that appears to offer seam movement, he could be devastating.

Nicholas Pooran (MINY) – MI New York’s captain and leading run-scorer with 152 runs at 38.00, Pooran has been typically explosive with scores of 68, 3, 70 and 11 in his last four innings. His 20+ runs hit rate of 50% is solid, and as the most destructive ball-striker in the MINY lineup, he is capable of taking any bowling attack apart.

Conditions

Weather data is currently unavailable for this venue. Pomona sits in Southern California where early July conditions are typically warm and dry with little prospect of rain.

Verdict and Betting Angles

MI New York get the nod here. The Statz model gives them a 53.7% win probability, and for good reason. They have genuine match-winners across the lineup – Nicholas Pooran, Quinton de Kock, Trent Boult and Corbin Bosch give them quality through the batting and bowling. They also hold a 3-2 head-to-head advantage over the Orcas.

Seattle’s bowling is formidable – Jasdeep Singh and Ottneil Baartman are the top two wicket-takers in the tournament – and Tim Seifert has been brilliant at the top. But the Orcas’ inconsistency with the bat, having been bowled out for 115 against LAKR, raises questions about their batting depth.

Interestingly, the bookmakers have MINY at 1.67 (Coral/Ladbrokes) – implying roughly 60% win probability – while the Statz model has them closer to 54%. That gap may offer a sliver of value on Seattle Orcas at 2.20, but the head-to-head record and MINY’s squad depth make them the more likely victors.

Match winner odds: Seattle Orcas 2.20 (Coral/Ladbrokes) | MI New York 1.67 (Coral/Ladbrokes)

Betting angles from the Statz bet builder: