Notts vs Lancashire Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

2nd July 2026

Nottinghamshire welcome Lancashire to Trent Bridge on Friday for a T20 Blast 2026 clash with plenty riding on it for both sides. First ball is at 23:00 IST (18:30 BST) on 3 July.

Notts head into this one sitting 5th in the table on 20 points from eight matches, level with the teams in 3rd and 4th and riding a five-match winning streak. Lancashire are further back in 11th on 16 points (W4 L4), needing a strong second half of the group stage to haul themselves into contention. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Nottinghamshire vs Lancashire fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

Trent Bridge continues to deliver runs in T20 cricket. Across the last 30 T20 matches here since May 2022, the average first-innings score is 176.5 and the average match total stands at 337.3. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of those games – no toss advantage to speak of.

Pace bowlers have taken 54.7% of wickets at an economy rate of 9.35, while spinners have been more economical at 8.07 but account for 40.8% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. The most recent T20 at this ground saw Nottinghamshire beat Derbyshire by 10 runs on 7 June 2026 (NOT 183/6, DER 173/9).

Form and Table

Nottinghamshire – 5th (P8 W5 L3, 20 pts)

Notts are flying right now – five straight wins and climbing the table with every game. They have been clinical in chases and dominant when setting targets:

Lancashire – 11th (P8 W4 L4, 16 pts)

Lancashire have steadied the ship with three wins from their last three after a painful pair of away defeats, but the damage from those losses leaves them in the bottom half:

Standings Snapshot

Pos Team P W L Pts
1 Northamptonshire 8 8 0 32
2 Glamorgan 8 6 2 24
3 Surrey 8 5 3 20
4 Essex 8 5 3 20
5 Nottinghamshire 8 5 3 20
…
11 Lancashire 8 4 4 16

Both sides have six group matches remaining. Notts are level on points with the teams in 3rd and 4th – a win here would do wonders for their qualification push. Lancashire need to pick up the pace if they are to have any chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

Head-to-Head

Lancashire have been the dominant side in this fixture recently. In nine meetings since 2022 (Statz data), Lancashire have won seven to Nottinghamshire’s two. The most recent clash came on 25 May 2026 at Old Trafford, where Lancashire hammered 208/4 batting first and bowled Notts out for 169/9 to win by 36 runs.

At Trent Bridge, though, the picture is much more balanced. In four meetings at this venue, it is level at 2-2. Notts won here in July 2025 (chasing down 127 with four wickets in hand) and June 2023, while Lancashire won in June 2024 and May 2022. Lancashire’s overall record at Trent Bridge since 2021 reads W2 L2 from four visits.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections paint this as a genuine coin-flip contest.

If Nottinghamshire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 159.9, match total of 308.1. Win probability – NOT 48.2%, LAN 49.8%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 134 to 185.

If Lancashire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 158.7, match total of 307.1. Win probability – NOT 53.1%, LAN 44.9%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 133 to 185.

Both projected match totals (307-308) sit well below the Trent Bridge average of 337.3, suggesting the model rates both bowling attacks highly. The projected first-innings totals of around 159 are also below the venue average of 176.5 – expect the ball to do a bit under lights. Match total P10-P90 range: 262 to 349.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers

Player Team Runs Inn
Beau Webster Warwickshire 427 8
George Munsey Nottinghamshire 408 8
James Rew Somerset 342 6
Sam Billings Kent 338 8
Chris Lynn Northamptonshire 320 7

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers

Player Team Wkts Inn
James Sales Northamptonshire 18 8
Mohammad Ali Nottinghamshire 17 8
Reece Topley Surrey 16 8
Duan Jansen Essex 16 6
Hasan Ali Yorkshire 15 7

Nottinghamshire Season Leaders

Runs: George Munsey – 408 runs, avg 51.0, HS 88 | Tom Moores – 190 runs, avg 23.75, HS 75 | Jack Haynes – 181 runs, avg 22.63, HS 50

Wickets: Mohammad Ali – 17 wkts, best 3 | Dillon Pennington – 8 wkts, best 3 | George Linde – 7 wkts, best 2

Lancashire Season Leaders

Runs: Liam Livingstone – 301 runs, avg 50.17, HS 85 | Ben McDermott – 168 runs, avg 21.0, HS 68 | Keaton Jennings – 112 runs, avg 14.0, HS 51

Wickets: Tom Hartley – 9 wkts, best 4 | Liam Livingstone – 8 wkts, best 3 | Thomas Aspinwall – 6 wkts, best 3

Predicted XIs

Nottinghamshire (based on XI vs Leicestershire, 28 Jun 2026)

  1. Joe Clarke (c)
  2. George Munsey
  3. Jack Haynes
  4. Freddie McCann
  5. Tom Moores (wk)
  6. George Linde
  7. Benny Howell
  8. Liam Patterson-White
  9. Olly Stone
  10. Mohammad Ali
  11. Mohammad Amir

Lancashire (based on XI vs Derbyshire, 1 Jul 2026)

  1. Keaton Jennings (c)
  2. Michael Jones
  3. Liam Livingstone
  4. Matthew Hurst (wk)
  5. Ben McDermott
  6. Shadab Khan
  7. Joseph Moores
  8. Jack Blatherwick
  9. Tom Hartley
  10. Thomas Aspinwall
  11. James Anderson

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Shadab Khan (LAN) – projected ~58 pts. The all-rounder provides value across all three disciplines with projected runs of around 21, nearly one wicket per game and regular catching contributions. His batting and leg-spin combination makes him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Liam Livingstone (LAN) – projected ~57 pts. Lancashire’s talisman with 301 runs at 50.17 this season plus 8 wickets. Projected for over 30 runs with genuine wicket-taking ability through his leg-spin.

Also consider:

Key Players

George Munsey (Nottinghamshire)

The Scottish left-hander has been the standout batter in this Nottinghamshire side. With 408 runs at an average of 51.0 and a high score of 88, Munsey sits second in the Orange Cap race behind Beau Webster. His last three scores of 53, 82 and 75 show a player in devastating touch. The Statz bet builder shows Munsey has hit 20+ runs in 87.5% of his matches this season (100% in his last 5) – an extraordinary consistency rate for a T20 opener.

Liam Livingstone (Lancashire)

Lancashire’s most important player by a distance. Livingstone has 301 runs at 50.17 with a high score of 85, plus 8 wickets with his leg-spin. He is a genuine match-winner on both sides of the ball. His 20+ run hit rate stands at 66.7% for the season (80% in his last 5), while he has taken 1+ wicket in 83.3% of his matches. A dual threat that any opposition would fear.

Mohammad Ali (Nottinghamshire)

The competition’s second-highest wicket-taker with 17 wickets in 8 matches. Mohammad Ali has been relentless – he has taken at least one wicket in every single match this season (100% hit rate). Even more impressively, he has taken 2+ wickets in 75% of matches (100% in his last 5). His last three returns of 3, 2 and 3 wickets tell the story of a bowler right at the peak of his powers.

Shadab Khan (Lancashire)

The Pakistan international brings a different dimension to the Lancashire lineup. His leg-spin and lower-order hitting provide balance, with projected runs of around 21 and nearly a wicket per game in the Statz model. In a match that could be decided by fine margins, Shadab’s ability to contribute across all facets makes him a key factor.

Conditions

Cloudy skies are forecast for Trent Bridge with temperatures around 23 degrees at the start and humidity at 39%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 5.1 km/h from the west – conditions that should be comfortable for cricket throughout the evening.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a finely balanced contest on paper. The Statz projections make it essentially 50-50, with Notts gaining a slight edge if they bowl first (53.1%). Lancashire’s overwhelming H2H record (7-2) is hard to ignore, but Notts’ current form – five wins on the bounce – and home advantage tilt this in their favour.

The bookmakers agree. bet365 have Nottinghamshire at 1.62 and Lancashire at 2.15. Ladbrokes and Coral offer Notts at 1.73 and Lancashire at 2.10.

I am leaning Nottinghamshire here. The momentum is undeniable, they know Trent Bridge inside out (15 wins from 32 T20s here since 2021), and their bowling attack – led by Mohammad Ali and supported by Amir and Stone – has the quality to contain even Livingstone.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: