RCB vs MI Preview – IPL 2026 | Statz

9th May 2026

Royal Challengers Bengaluru take on Mumbai Indians in Match 48 of IPL 2026 at Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium in Raipur. The match gets underway at 7:30 PM IST (3:00 PM BST) on Sunday 10 May. RCB sit 3rd in the table with a genuine push for the top two on the cards. Mumbai are 9th and in deep trouble – three wins from ten games and facing a must-win situation with every passing fixture. This is a contest between a side with momentum and one desperately trying to arrest a season-long slide.

The Venue

Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium in Raipur is a rare venue for IPL cricket. Statz data tags the surface as Bowler friendly – a significant outlier compared to the high-scoring tracks that have dominated this season.

The average first innings score here is just 146.3, with an average match total of 290.2. Teams batting first win only 33% of the time – the strongest lean toward chasing in the data. Pace bowlers account for 63.3% of wickets, spin 26.7%. Neither RCB nor MI have IPL records at this ground based on Statz data – it is a genuinely neutral venue and a surface that will reward any side willing to adapt their approach to lower-scoring conditions.

The most recent T20 match in Statz data at this venue was on 22 May 2016. Expect something very different from the typical IPL blockbuster – totals in the 145-160 range are realistic and bowlers could be the key differentiators.

Form and Table

RCB – 3rd place: P10, W6, L4, 12 points. Last 5: L, L, W, W, L.

Back-to-back defeats before this match but overall season stats tell a better story – RCB average 185.9 runs scored against 180.4 conceded (W60%). A side capable of big scores but carrying inconsistency.

MI – 9th place: P10, W3, L7, 6 points. Last 5: W, L, L, L, W.

One win in four before last week’s effort against LSG. MI average 186 scored against 191.6 conceded. Their season has been defined by games they should have won but did not.

Top 4 (IPL 2026):

  1. SRH – P11, W7, L4, 14 pts
  2. RR – P10, W6, L3, 13 pts
  3. RCB – P10, W6, L4, 12 pts
  4. PBKS – P10, W6, L4, 12 pts

RCB are level on 12 points with PBKS and GT in 4th and 5th. With around 4 games remaining for most sides, every point matters.

Head-to-Head

RCB and MI have met 24 times since 2013 (Statz data). Mumbai lead the all-time record 13-11. However, RCB have won 3 of the last 5 meetings and have won back-to-back encounters heading into this match.

The last meeting was on 12 April 2026 at Wankhede – MI posted 222/5 batting first and RCB chased it down with 240/4 in 20 overs, winning by 18 runs. The previous clash on 7 April 2025 also went to RCB at Wankhede – RCB 221/5, MI 209/9. There is no head-to-head record at this Raipur venue in the Statz dataset.

Statz Projections

Statz gives RCB a meaningful edge here. In the batting-first scenario (RCB bat), RCB win probability sits at 61.8%, MI at 38.2%. With MI batting first, RCB’s win probability is 57.9% against MI’s 42.1%.

Projected first innings: 168.3. Second innings target projection: 163.2. Match total projection: 331.5. P10 range: 290. P90 range: 373. The projected first innings of 168 sits well above the venue’s all-time average of 146 – reflecting the heavy-scoring nature of this IPL season – but still considerably lower than the typical IPL opener. Check live Statz projections for RCB vs MI ahead of toss.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap (IPL 2026 top 5):

  1. Heinrich Klaasen (SRH) – 494 runs
  2. Abhishek Sharma (SRH) – 475 runs
  3. Lokesh Rahul (DC) – 468 runs
  4. Ishan Kishan (SRH) – 409 runs
  5. Vaibhav Suryavanshi (RR) – 404 runs

Purple Cap (IPL 2026 top 5):

  1. Bhuvneshwar Kumar (RCB) – 17 wickets
  2. Anshul Kamboj (CSK) – 17 wickets
  3. Kagiso Rabada (GT) – 16 wickets
  4. Prince Yadav (LSG) – 16 wickets
  5. Eshan Malinga (SRH) – 16 wickets

RCB Season Leaders:

MI Season Leaders:

Predicted XIs

Both XIs below are based on each team’s last confirmed playing XI. RCB’s lineup is from their match vs Lucknow Super Giants on 07 May 2026. MI’s lineup is from their match vs Lucknow Super Giants on 04 May 2026. Check the fixture page ahead of toss for any changes.

RCB: Jacob Bethell, Virat Kohli, Devdutt Padikkal, Rajat Patidar (c), Jitesh Sharma (wk), Krunal Pandya, Romario Shepherd, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Suyash Sharma, Rasikh Salam Dar, Josh Hazlewood

MI: Ryan Rickelton (wk), Naman Dhir, Suryakumar Yadav (c), Tilak Varma, Will Jacks, Raj Angad Bawa, Corbin Bosch, Deepak Chahar, Jasprit Bumrah, AM Ghazanfar, Raghu Sharma

Dream11 Tips

Picks are based on Statz projected Dream11 points for players confirmed in their team’s recent XI (in_recent_xi flag active).

Captain: Will Jacks – 94.4 projected points

Vice Captain: Corbin Bosch – 87.6 projected points

Next 3 for reference:

Key Players

Ryan Rickelton (MI, wk-bat) – MI’s standout batter this season with 380 runs at an average of 47.5 and a HS of 123. Statz data shows Rickelton hitting 20+ in 80% of his last 5 innings. He is the key man if Mumbai are to build a challenging total and should anchor their chase or innings regardless of conditions. With Dream11 projections of 83.8 points, he is the premium MI pick.

Bhuvneshwar Kumar (RCB, pace) – Joint Purple Cap leader with 17 wickets this season and a projected Dream11 return of 85.6 points. On a bowler-friendly surface where pace takes 63.3% of wickets, Bhuvneshwar’s ability to move the ball at the start and in the death makes him the standout bowling option. His hit rate for taking wickets in his last 5 appearances backs this up consistently.

Virat Kohli (RCB, bat) – The all-time leading H2H run-scorer between these sides with 807 runs in 24 meetings (Statz data). He has 379 runs this season at 37.9 average. Kohli historically loves this fixture and with RCB’s Dream11 projection of 83.5 points for him, he remains the premium batting option for this match – particularly if the surface keeps totals manageable.

Jasprit Bumrah (MI, pace) – Statz projects 67.7 Dream11 points for Bumrah – the value bowler in this contest. On a surface that historically assists pace, Bumrah’s ability to generate bounce and reverse swing could prove decisive. MI need their best bowler at his best and with the venue favouring chasing, his powerplay and death bowling will be critical.

Conditions

Fair skies expected in Raipur – 33 degrees Celsius, humidity at 37%, no rain forecast. Clear conditions mean no swing assistance and a hard, true surface. Batters who can adapt to a bowler-friendly pitch rather than the high-scoring surfaces they are used to will find the gaps.

Verdict and Betting Angles

RCB are the clear Statz selection here – 61.8% win probability batting first, 57.9% if they are asked to chase. Two straight defeats have not changed the underlying numbers and they face a MI side that has won just 3 of 10. The Raipur surface is the wildcard. A bowler-friendly pitch with only 33% bat-first wins is an interesting wrinkle – but Statz still has RCB winning more than 6 times in 10 regardless of the toss outcome.

Live bet365 odds: RCB 1.76 (19/25), MI 1.96 (24/25). RCB are the play.

Bet Builder angles (backed by Statz hit rates) – build your own at the Statz Cricket Bet Builder: