CSK vs LSG Preview – IPL 2026 | Statz
9th May 2026
Chennai Super Kings and Lucknow Super Giants meet in Match 47 of the Indian Premier League 2026 at MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai. Kick-off… scratch that – the match gets underway at 3:30 PM IST (11:00 AM BST) on Sunday 10 May. CSK sit 6th in the table with their playoff hopes alive but fragile. LSG are 10th and in desperate need of points if they are to have any realistic chance of staying involved. A victory for either side carries very different implications heading into the business end of the season.
The Venue
MA Chidambaram Stadium – Chepauk – is one of the most distinctive venues in IPL cricket. The surface at Chepauk is tagged as a Balanced pitch but tends to suit teams who can navigate the spin threat in the middle overs.
Statz data from the last 30 matches at this ground shows an average first innings score of 170.1, which is well below the IPL norm. Batting first teams win just 43% of the time here – a clear lean toward chasing. Pace bowlers account for 60.2% of wickets (economy 8.94) while spinners take 34.1% (economy 7.74), suggesting the ground rewards disciplined spin as a control option but pace still does the damage.
The most recent IPL match here was on 2 May 2026 – CSK vs MI. Mumbai posted 159/7 and CSK knocked off the target with 8 wickets to spare in 18.1 overs. CSK’s record at Chepauk since 2021 is W14, L11 from 25 matches. LSG’s record at this ground is a difficult W1, L2 from 3 visits.
Form and Table
CSK – 6th place: P10, W5, L5, 10 points. Last 5: W, W, L, W, L.
- W vs DC (05 May): CSK 159/2, DC 155/7
- W vs MI (02 May): CSK 160/2, MI 159/7
- L vs GT (26 Apr): CSK 158/7, GT 162/2
- W vs MI (23 Apr): CSK 207/6, MI 104/10
- L vs SRH (18 Apr): CSK 184/8, SRH 194/9
CSK average 181.5 runs scored per game this season against 171.1 conceded. That positive differential suggests a team that can win ugly – and has been.
LSG – 10th place: P10, W3, L7, 6 points. Last 5: W, L, L, L, L.
- W vs RCB (07 May): LSG 209/3, RCB 203/6
- L vs MI (04 May): LSG 228/5, MI 229/4
- L vs KKR (26 Apr): Super over defeat
- L vs RR (22 Apr): LSG 119/10, RR 159/6
- L vs PBKS (19 Apr): LSG 200/5, PBKS 254/7
One win from five. LSG average 170.4 runs scored against 179.6 conceded. Their bowling has been a consistent liability.
Top 4 (IPL 2026):
- SRH – P11, W7, L4, 14 pts
- RR – P10, W6, L3, 13 pts
- RCB – P10, W6, L4, 12 pts
- PBKS – P10, W6, L4, 12 pts
CSK have around 4 games remaining and need maximum points. A defeat here leaves them in serious trouble.
Head-to-Head
These two sides have met 6 times since 2022 (Statz data). LSG lead the head-to-head 3-2, with one no result.
The last meeting was on 14 April 2025 at Lucknow – CSK chased down 167 with 5 wickets and 3 balls to spare (LSG 166/7, CSK 168/5). Two meetings have been played at Chepauk: CSK won in April 2023 (CSK 217/7, LSG 205/7) and LSG won in April 2024 (CSK 210/4, LSG 213/4). One win each at this venue – no dominant home advantage evident in the H2H record.
Statz Projections
Statz gives this match as essentially a coin flip. In the batting-first scenario, CSK win probability sits at 49% with LSG at 49% (2% to other outcomes). With LSG batting first, CSK’s win probability nudges to 53.6% against LSG at 44.4%.
Projected first innings: 181.2. Second innings target chase projected at 169.0. Match total projection: 350. P10 range: 307. P90 range: 393. That first innings projection of 181 sits well above the venue average of 170, reflecting the elevated scoring pace this IPL season. Check the live Statz projections for CSK vs LSG ahead of toss.
Competition Season Leaders
Orange Cap (IPL 2026 top 5):
- Heinrich Klaasen (SRH) – 494 runs
- Abhishek Sharma (SRH) – 475 runs
- Lokesh Rahul (DC) – 468 runs
- Ishan Kishan (SRH) – 409 runs
- Vaibhav Suryavanshi (RR) – 404 runs
Purple Cap (IPL 2026 top 5):
- Bhuvneshwar Kumar (RCB) – 17 wickets
- Anshul Kamboj (CSK) – 17 wickets
- Kagiso Rabada (GT) – 16 wickets
- Prince Yadav (LSG) – 16 wickets
- Eshan Malinga (SRH) – 16 wickets
CSK Season Leaders:
- Batting: Sanju Samson – 402 runs (avg 40.2, HS 115)
- Bowling: Anshul Kamboj – 17 wickets (avg 1.7)
LSG Season Leaders:
- Batting: Mitchell Marsh – 367 runs (avg 36.7, HS 111)
- Bowling: Prince Yadav – 16 wickets (avg 1.6)
Predicted XIs
Both XIs below are based on each team’s last confirmed playing XI. CSK’s lineup is from their match vs Delhi Capitals on 05 May 2026. LSG’s lineup is from their match vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru on 07 May 2026. Check the fixture page for toss updates before finalising any selections.
CSK: Sanju Samson (wk), Ruturaj Gaikwad (c), Urvil Patel, Kartik Sharma, Dewald Brevis, Jamie Overton, Akeal Hosein, Noor Ahmad, Anshul Kamboj, Mukesh Choudhary, Gurjapneet Singh
LSG: Mitchell Marsh, Arshin Kulkarni, Nicholas Pooran (wk), Aiden Markram, Rishabh Pant (c), Akshat Raghuwanshi, Himmat Singh, Shahbaz Ahmed, Digvesh Rathi, Mohammed Shami, Prince Yadav
Dream11 Tips
Picks are based on Statz projected Dream11 points for players confirmed in their team’s recent XI (in_recent_xi flag active).
Captain: Jamie Overton – 85.8 projected points
Vice Captain: Sanju Samson – 74.6 projected points
Next 3 for reference:
- Ruturaj Gaikwad – 72.0 pts
- Mohammed Shami – 70.4 pts
- Akeal Hosein – 70.4 pts
Key Players
Sanju Samson (CSK, wk-bat) – The leading CSK run-scorer this season with 402 runs at an average of 40.2. A HS of 115 shows he has the range to go massive. Statz hit rates show Samson scoring 20+ in 60% of his last 5 innings – consistent enough to be your core selection in any fantasy side. With the toss likely to be crucial at Chepauk, Samson at the top of the order is always dangerous.
Anshul Kamboj (CSK, pace) – Joint Purple Cap leader with 17 wickets this season at an average of 1.7. Kamboj has been CSK’s standout bowler and his wicket hit rate in his last 5 appearances makes him a premium bet builder option. On a Chepauk surface where pace takes 60.2% of wickets, he is the man in form in the right conditions.
Mitchell Marsh (LSG, allrounder) – LSG’s batting anchor with 367 runs this season (avg 36.7, HS 111). Marsh has hit 20+ in 60% of his last 5 innings. If LSG are to post a challenging total, it will almost certainly be built around his contribution at the top of the order. A dual-threat player who can also chip in with his medium pace.
Mohammed Shami (LSG, pace) – Still one of the most dangerous new ball bowlers in the IPL. With 60% wicket hit rate in his last 5 matches and strong projected Dream11 points of 70.4, Shami is a key value pick. On a surface where pace bowlers dominate the wicket count, he is LSG’s best hope of disrupting CSK’s top order.
Conditions
Cloudy skies expected at Chepauk on Sunday – 31 degrees Celsius, humidity at 68%, 96% cloud cover, no rain forecast. The overcast conditions could assist swing early and make the toss more significant than the surface alone suggests.
Verdict and Betting Angles
This is a genuine 50-50 by the numbers. Statz has CSK at 49% and LSG at 49% if CSK bat first. Flip the order and CSK nudge ahead to 53.6%. The lean here is to back CSK at home – they know Chepauk better than anyone, their record here is solid (W14, L11), and they have the form momentum with back-to-back wins. LSG’s recent record is alarming – one win from five – and their bowling has been exposed repeatedly this season.
Live bet365 odds: CSK 1.727 (8/11), LSG 2.05 (21/20). CSK are the play.
Bet Builder angles (backed by Statz hit rates) – build your own at the Statz Cricket Bet Builder:
- Anshul Kamboj to take a wicket – leading Purple Cap contender, pace dominant at Chepauk, 60%+ wicket hit rate in recent matches
- Sanju Samson to score 20+ runs – 60% hit rate last 5 innings, top CSK run-scorer, ideal opening conditions
- Mohammed Shami to take a wicket – 60% wicket hit rate in recent appearances, pace conditions suit him at this venue
- Mitchell Marsh to score 20+ runs – 60% hit rate last 5, LSG’s anchor batter, will likely open or come in at 3