Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants Preview – IPL 2026 | Statz

3rd May 2026

Two struggling sides with plenty to play for at the bottom of the table. Mumbai Indians host Lucknow Super Giants at Wankhede Stadium in the Indian Premier League on Monday 4 May. The match starts at 19:30 IST (14:00 BST). MI sit 9th in the table with just 4 points from 9 games; LSG are 10th and even deeper in trouble with 4 points from 8. With both sides effectively playing for survival in the playoff race, this is a must-win fixture for both camps. Statz projects a near coin-flip, with MI shading it at 49.2% if they bat first – or 51.3% if LSG bat first.

The Venue

Wankhede Stadium is a batting ground. Statz’s 30-game venue card (since May 2022) shows an average first innings of 190.3 and an average match total of 369.1 – a high-scoring ground by IPL standards. Pace bowlers dominate, taking 66.9% of wickets at an economy of 10.16; spinners go at 8.68 (30.3% of wickets). Batting first has only worked 40% of the time here – teams prefer to chase at this venue. The highest recorded total is 243; lowest 116. Most recent game: SRH chased MI’s 243/5 to reach 249/4 on 29 Apr 2026, winning by 6 wickets. Pitch tag: Batting paradise. Openers score most frequently from the top positions.

Form and Table

Mumbai Indians – 9th, P9 W2 L7, 4 points. The most decorated franchise in IPL history are having a season to forget. They have won just 2 of 9 games and their most recent result was a loss to CSK. Last 3 scores for MI’s top batters: Rickelton (2, 123, 37), Dhir (0, 22, 57), Tilak Varma (37, 7, 5). Ghazanfar leads the MI wicket-takers this season with 11 from 9 matches.

Lucknow Super Giants – 10th, P8 W2 L6, 4 points. LSG are in worse shape on wins per game (25%) than MI (22%). Their last confirmed XI was against KKR on 26 April. Last 3 for LSG’s top batters: Marsh (40, 55, 2), Markram (42, 0, 31), Pant (43, 0, 42). Prince Yadav leads LSG wicket-takers with 13 from 8 matches.

IPL 2026 Table (Top 4):
1. Punjab Kings – P8 W6 L1 NR1, 13 pts
2. Rajasthan Royals – P9 W6 L3, 12 pts
3. Sunrisers Hyderabad – P9 W6 L3, 12 pts
4. Chennai Super Kings – P10 W6 L4, 12 pts

Both MI and LSG have a game in hand or two on the sides above them, but the win rate required to make the top 4 now looks almost impossible from 9th and 10th place.

Head-to-Head

8 meetings since 2022 (Statz data). LSG lead 6-2. In the last 5 matches, MI’s record reads W L L L W. The most recent meeting came on 27 Apr 2025 at Wankhede – MI posted 215/7 and bowled LSG out for 161, winning by 54 runs. At Wankhede specifically, MI won that one but LSG have also won here: in May 2024, LSG chased down 196/6 to win by 18 runs (214/6).

Statz Projections

With Mumbai Indians batting first, Statz projects a first innings of 190.8 (P10: 164, P90: 218). Match total: 369.1 (P10: 325, P90: 413). MI win probability: 49.2%. This is a near coin-flip – the model rates both teams almost identically, which makes sense given their near-identical records. The projected first innings of 190.8 sits exactly on Wankhede’s long-run average of 190.3, confirming this is a likely 190-plus ground. With bat first win at just 40% here, chasing teams will fancy their chances.

If LSG bat first: projected first innings 189.1 (P10: 160, P90: 218). MI win probability: 51.3%.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – IPL 2026 Top 5:
1. KL Rahul (Delhi Capitals) – 433 runs, 9 innings
2. Abhishek Sharma (SRH) – 425 runs, 9 innings
3. Heinrich Klaasen (SRH) – 414 runs, 9 innings
4. Vaibhav Suryavanshi (CSK) – 404 runs, 10 innings
5. Virat Kohli (RR) – 379 runs, 9 innings

Purple Cap – IPL 2026 Top 5:
1. Bhuvneshwar Kumar (RR) – 17 wickets, 9 innings
2. Anshul Kamboj (RCB) – 17 wickets, 9 innings
3. Jofra Archer (CSK) – 15 wickets, 10 innings
4. Eshan Malinga (SRH) – 15 wickets, 9 innings
5. Kagiso Rabada (GT) – 14 wickets, 9 innings

MI Season Run Leaders:
1. Ryan Rickelton – 297 runs (avg 42.43, HS 123, 9 matches)
2. Naman Dhir – 233 runs (avg 25.89, HS 57, 9 matches)
3. Tilak Varma – 193 runs (avg 21.44, HS 101, 9 matches)

MI Season Wicket Leaders:
1. AM Ghazanfar – 11 wickets (avg 1.57 per match, HS 2, 9 matches)
2. Ashwani Kumar – 6 wickets (avg 2.0, HS 4, 3 matches)
3. Shardul Thakur – 6 wickets (avg 1.0, HS 3, 9 matches)

LSG Season Run Leaders:
1. Mitchell Marsh – 212 runs (avg 26.5, HS 55, 8 matches)
2. Aiden Markram – 193 runs (avg 24.13, HS 45, 8 matches)
3. Rishabh Pant – 189 runs (avg 23.63, HS 68, 8 matches)

LSG Season Wicket Leaders:
1. Prince Yadav – 13 wickets (avg 1.63 per match, HS 3, 8 matches)
2. Mohsin Khan – 9 wickets (avg 2.25, HS 5, 8 matches)
3. Mohammed Shami – 7 wickets (avg 0.88, HS 2, 8 matches)

Predicted XIs

MI based on vs CSK, 02 May 2026. LSG based on vs KKR, 26 Apr 2026. Check the fixture page for toss and selection changes.

Mumbai Indians: Will Jacks (Bat), Ryan Rickelton (WK), Suryakumar Yadav (Bat), Naman Dhir (AR), Tilak Varma (Bat), Hardik Pandya [C] (AR), Robin Minz (WK), Trent Boult (Bowl), Krish Bhagat (Bowl), Jasprit Bumrah (Bowl), AM Ghazanfar (Bowl)

Lucknow Super Giants: Aiden Markram (Bat), Mitchell Marsh (AR), Rishabh Pant [C/WK] (WK), Nicholas Pooran (WK), Ayush Badoni (Bat), Mukul DChoudhary (Bat), George Linde (AR), Mohammed Shami (Bowl), Prince Yadav (Bowl), Digvesh Rathi (Bowl), Mohsin Khan (Bowl)

Dream11 Tips

Captain: Mohammed Shami (LSG) – 72.4 projected Dream11 points
Vice Captain: Aiden Markram (LSG) – 71.0 projected Dream11 points

Next 3 picks (in recent XI):
– Trent Boult (MI) – 67.2 pts
– Mitchell Marsh (LSG) – 59.9 pts
– Rishabh Pant (LSG) – 56.2 pts

Key Players

Mohammed Shami (LSG) – 7 wickets from 8 matches and Statz’s highest Dream11 projection at 72.4 points. Wankhede suits pace bowlers (66.9% of wickets). Shami was expensive for most of the season but took 1, 2 and 0 wickets in his last 3. His last 5 wicket hit rate and premium at Wankhede makes him C in any Dream11 side.

Ryan Rickelton (MI) – 297 runs from 7 innings, avg 42.43, HS 123. Last 5 hit rate of 60% for 20+ runs (Statz). Wankhede openers are the most frequent top scorers – Rickelton as MI’s dominant batter is the must-have from the home side.

Naman Dhir (MI) – 233 runs at avg 25.89. 80% hit rate for 20+ runs in the last 5 matches (highest of any player in this fixture). The middleorder batter has been the most consistent deliverer of value across the season.

Prince Yadav (LSG) – IPL 2026’s leading wicket-taker for LSG with 13 from 8 matches (avg 1.63 per game). Last 3: 2, 2, 0. At Wankhede where pace dominates, Prince Yadav is the go-to wicket-taking pick from LSG’s attack.

Conditions

Fair night conditions at Wankhede. 31 degrees Celsius, 72% humidity, 5 km/h wind, no rain forecast, 21% cloud cover.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a dead rubber for IPL playoff ambitions on paper, but both teams desperately need wins to keep any mathematical hope alive. The model essentially rates them equal. Statz gives MI a marginal edge if LSG bat first (51.3%), and near parity if MI bat first (49.2%). The odds reflect that – MI are 1.727 (8/11) with bet365, LSG are 2.1 (11/10).

The Wankhede data tells us: chase here. Whoever wins the toss and bowls first has a historical edge (bat-first wins just 40%). LSG’s pace attack – Shami, Prince Yadav, Mohsin Khan – could be devastating on this surface.

Bet builder angles:
– Mumbai Indians to win (bet365 1.727)
– Naman Dhir 20+ runs: 80% last 5 hit rate (Statz)
– Ryan Rickelton 20+ runs: 60% last 5 hit rate (Statz)
– Mohammed Shami to take a wicket: form bowler, pace-friendly Wankhede surface
– Match total 180+: venue projects 190+ first innings on average

Build your own selections at statz.ai/cricket/bet-builder?fixture_id=69641.