Guernsey vs Isle of Man Preview – T20I World Cup Qualifier 2026 | Statz
3rd May 2026
Guernsey and Isle of Man meet again in Game 2 of their T20 International World Cup Qualifier double-header at King George V Sports Ground, Castel. The match begins at 18:30 IST (13:00 BST). Guernsey sit 38th in the ICC T20I rankings with 77 rating points from 27 matches; Isle of Man are unranked on Statz. After taking Game 1 on 2 May, Guernsey will be looking to seal a clean sweep. Statz gives the hosts a 57% win probability regardless of which side bats first.
The Venue
King George V Sports Ground in Castel has hosted 3 T20 internationals in the Statz dataset. The average match total is 277.7 runs, with seam bowling taking 57.1% of wickets at an economy of 7.67 and spin at 5.91 (45.7% of wickets). Boundaries account for 45.4% of all runs. Openers are the most frequent top scorers. Guernsey’s venue record: P3 W1 L2. Isle of Man’s: P1 W0 L1. Matthew Stokes leads the ground’s all-time run tally for Guernsey with 84 runs; William Peatfield leads the wickets column with 5.
Form and Table
Guernsey – 38th in the ICC T20I rankings (77 rating, 2071 points, 27 matches). Won Game 1 of this series on 2 May 2026. Season run leader: Tom Nightingale (45 runs, avg 45, HS 45, 1 match). Season wicket leader: Adam Martel (3 wickets, 1 match).
Isle of Man – Unranked in ICC T20I standings on Statz. Lost Game 1 to Guernsey on 2 May. Season run leader: Adam McAuley (39 runs, avg 39, HS 39, 1 match). Season wicket leaders: George Newton, Joe Burrows and Matthew Ansell – 1 wicket each.
Head-to-Head
2 meetings since 2020 (Statz data). Guernsey lead the head-to-head 2-0. At King George V Sports Ground, Guernsey hold a 1-0 record against Isle of Man. Adam McAuley top-scored for IoM in the most recent meeting with 39; Adam Martel was Guernsey’s standout bowler with 3 wickets.
Statz Projections
With Guernsey batting first, Statz projects a first innings of 162.9 (P10: 139, P90: 188). Match total: 312.7 (P10: 272, P90: 352). Guernsey win probability: 57%. Against the venue average of 277.7 per match, both projections are above that baseline, reflecting Guernsey’s stronger batting unit. Note: model confidence is 0.43 given limited data for both sides.
If Isle of Man bat first: projected first innings 158.3 (P10: 131, P90: 186). Guernsey still favoured at 57.2%.
Competition Season Leaders
This is a bilateral T20I series. No broader competition Orange Cap or Purple Cap table is available on Statz for this event.
Guernsey Season Run Leaders:
1. Tom Nightingale – 45 runs (avg 45.0, HS 45, 1 match)
2. Matthew Stokes – 40 runs (avg 40.0, HS 40, 1 match)
3. Lucas Barker – 10 runs (avg 10.0, HS 10, 1 match)
Guernsey Season Wicket Leaders:
1. Adam Martel – 3 wickets (1 match)
2. Charlie Forshaw – 2 wickets (1 match)
3. Ed Robinson – 1 wicket (1 match)
Isle of Man Season Run Leaders:
1. Adam McAuley – 39 runs (avg 39.0, HS 39, 1 match)
2. Carl Hartmann – 16 runs (avg 16.0, HS 16, 1 match)
3. Josh Clough – 12 runs (avg 12.0, HS 12, 1 match)
Isle of Man Season Wicket Leaders:
1. George Newton – 1 wicket (1 match)
2. Joe Burrows – 1 wicket (1 match)
3. Matthew Ansell – 1 wicket (1 match)
Predicted XIs
Based on Game 1 vs Isle of Man, 02 May 2026 (fixture 69858). Check the fixture page for any toss or selection updates.
Guernsey: Lucas Barker (AR), Josh Butler (Bat), Charlie Forshaw (Bowl), Adam Martel (AR), Luke Bichard (Bowl), Martin Dale Bradley (AR), Ollie Nightingale [C] (Bat), Ed Robinson (AR), Matthew Stokes (Bat), Tom Nightingale (AR), Zak Isaac Damarell (WK), Alex Bushell (WK)
Isle of Man: Adam McAuley (Bat), Carl Hartmann (WK), Chris Langford (Bat), Christian Webster (Bowl), Corbin Liebenberg (Bowl), Dollin Jansen [C] (Bowl), Joe Burrows (Bowl), Matthew Ansell (Bowl), Sam Barnett (Bat), George Newton (Bowl)
Dream11 Tips
Captain: Chris Langford (Isle of Man) – 61.8 projected Dream11 points
Vice Captain: Luke Bichard (Guernsey) – 53.9 projected Dream11 points
Next 3 picks (in recent XI):
– Josh Butler (GGY) – 47.5 pts
– Zak Isaac Damarell (GGY) – 47.5 pts
– Tom Nightingale (GGY) – 46.6 pts
Key Players
Tom Nightingale (Guernsey) – Top scorer in Game 1 with 45 runs. Allrounder batting at 4, right-arm offbreak available. Statz projects 24.5 runs if Guernsey bat first. The series form batter for the hosts.
Adam Martel (Guernsey) – 3 wickets in Game 1 – the standout bowling display of this series. Slow left-arm orthodox. Guernsey’s go-to wicket-taker in conditions that favour spin (45.7% wickets at this ground).
Adam McAuley (Isle of Man) – IoM’s top scorer in Game 1 with 39 runs at the top of the order. Statz projects 23.6 runs if IoM bat first (scenario: Guernsey bats first). Any IoM recovery starts with him.
Chris Langford (Isle of Man) – The highest-projected Dream11 scorer of any confirmed recent XI player at 61.8 points. Bats and bowls left-arm medium – a genuine differential if IoM spring an upset. Hit rate data is limited to 1 match in this series.
Conditions
Weather data is not available for this venue on Statz (venue coordinates missing). Castel, Guernsey in early May typically brings mild, potentially overcast conditions – check local forecasts ahead of the toss.
Verdict and Betting Angles
Guernsey are the play. They have won Game 1, lead the head-to-head 2-0 in Statz data, and Statz gives them 57% probability in both toss scenarios. Their allround depth – Martel, Nightingale, Robinson, Barker – is clearly greater than IoM’s bowling-heavy squad. Guernsey to win.
No betting odds are currently available for this fixture on Statz. Build your own selections at statz.ai/cricket/bet-builder?fixture_id=69860.
Angles to watch:
– Guernsey win: 57% probability backing the hosts
– Tom Nightingale 20+ runs: scored 45 in Game 1, projected 24.5 again – consistent form
– Adam Martel 2+ wickets: took 3 in Game 1, the series’ form bowler
– Match total: P50 sits around 313 (Guernsey bats first) – tight total with P10 at 272 suggesting lower-scoring potential