Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Preview – April 7 2026

7th April 2026

The Miami Heat visit the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night in one of the more evenly-matched games on the slate. Toronto lead the H2H 2-0 this season and are at home, but the Heat come in as marginal favourites.

The Line

TOR +1.5 on the spread. Moneyline: TOR 1.94, MIA 2.06 – essentially a pick’em. Total: O/U 239.5 via Polymarket. The pace data supports a higher-scoring game.

Pace and Shooting

Miami run fast (109.1), Toronto are average (98.5). MIA faster by 10.6 – the biggest pace differential on tonight’s slate. TOR shoot 51.4% from the field and 38.6% from three – the better shooting team this season. MIA shoot 46.2% FG and 36.5% from three. TOR FG differential: +5.2%.

Ratings

TOR: offensive rating 105.3, defensive rating 102.0. MIA: offensive rating 112.5, defensive rating 117.2. Toronto defend significantly better – defensive rating 102.0 vs Miami’s 117.2. Toronto win rate: 40%, Miami: 30%. Check Statz NBA projections for model outputs.

Injuries

Miami are missing Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic and Chucky Hepburn – all out. Toronto have a relatively clean bill of health by comparison, which is a factor in this one.

Prop Streaks

Brandon Ingram (TOR) is on a red-hot streak going UNDER multiple lines – UNDER PRA (29.5) for 8 straight, averaging 24.6. Also UNDER P+R (26.5) and P+A (24.5) for 8 consecutive games. At 1.91 and 1.82 respectively via FanDuel, these are high-confidence fade plays.

Sandro Mamukelashvili (TOR) is going the other way – OVER P+R (14.5) for 8 straight, averaging 20. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA) has cleared PRA 18.5 for 6 straight, averaging 29 over that stretch (39, 29, 25, 27, 25). Full board at Statz prop streaks.

Tyler Herro (MIA) has also gone UNDER his rebounds line (4.5) for 5 straight games.

Head-to-Head

Toronto lead 2-0 this season. Won 112-91 on Dec 23 (Scottie Barnes 27, Jaquez Jr. 21). Won 106-96 on Dec 15 (Brandon Ingram 28, Bam Adebayo 20). Average margin: +15.5 in TOR’s favour.

Verdict

Toronto have the better defensive rating, better shooting numbers and own the H2H. Miami’s pace is higher but they’re missing pieces and their defence leaks points. TOR at 1.94 moneyline looks reasonable. The Ingram unders are the standout prop play here. See the full game preview on Statz for live odds and prop builder.