London Spirit vs Southern Brave Prediction, Projections & Preview

30th July 2026

London Spirit host Southern Brave at Lord’s on Saturday for the 16th match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:00 BST on 1 August.

London Spirit sit 6th in the table on 4 points from 3 matches (W1 L2), while Southern Brave are rooted to the bottom on 0 points from 3 matches (W0 L3). This is a must-win for the visitors if they are to have any realistic chance of reaching the knockout stages. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the London Spirit vs Southern Brave fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

Lord’s is a bowler-friendly ground that has produced tight, low-scoring cricket in recent Hundred seasons. Across the last 24 Hundred matches at this venue, the average match total is 284 runs with an average first-innings score of 151. The pitch is tagged as Bowler Friendly by Statz. Seam bowlers have dominated, taking 61.4% of wickets at an economy rate of 9.94, while spinners account for 33.1% of dismissals at 9.26 runs per over. Teams batting first at Lord’s have won 60% of matches since 2021 – a clear toss advantage for the side electing to bat.

The ground favours opening batsmen, with openers scoring most frequently at the top of the order. Boundaries are relatively hard to come by – the boundary percentage sits at 53.6%, meaning singles and twos dominate the scoring pattern. Expect a pitch that rewards discipline and punishes loose deliveries.

Form and Table

London Spirit – 6th (P3 W1 L2, 4 pts)

London Spirit have had a mixed start to their Hundred campaign. They won their opening match against Southern Brave by 47 runs on 23 August 2025, but have since lost to Trent Rockets and Manchester Super Giants. Their most recent outing on 29 July saw them edge out MI London by just one run – a narrow escape that suggests they are finding their feet:

Southern Brave – 8th (P3 W0 L3, 0 pts)

Southern Brave are in deep trouble. Winless from three matches with a net run rate of -0.241, they have been outplayed in every outing so far. They lost to Welsh Fire, Sunrisers Leeds and MI London in succession – a run of defeats that has left them with a mountain to climb:

Head-to-Head

London Spirit hold the upper hand in this fixture. From 5 meetings, Spirit have won 2 to Brave’s 2, with 1 no-result. The most recent clash came on 23 August 2025 at this very ground, where London Spirit dominated, scoring 186/4 and bowling out Southern Brave for 139/9 to win by 47 runs. That performance showed Spirit’s ability to control the game when conditions suit them. Check the full H2H stats and projections on Statz for deeper analysis.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections make this a tight contest, though the data leans marginally towards Southern Brave.

If London Spirit bat first: Projected first-innings total of 142, match total of 275. Win probability – LS 47.2%, SB 46.3%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 118 to 166.

If Southern Brave bat first: Projected first-innings total of 143.4, match total of 276.5. Win probability – LS 42%, SB 51.5%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 121 to 167.

The model suggests Southern Brave gain a 9.5-percentage-point advantage if they win the toss and bowl first. Both projected match totals (275-276) sit below the Lord’s average of 284, indicating the model expects a tight, low-scoring affair. Match total P10-P90 range: 262 to 349.

Toss Prediction

The toss is critical here. Teams batting first at Lord’s have won 60% of matches since 2021, making the call to bat first a significant advantage. Southern Brave would be wise to bowl first if they win the toss – the projections show their win probability jumps from 46.3% to 51.5% in that scenario. London Spirit, conversely, would prefer to bat first and set a target on a pitch that may deteriorate under lights. Expect the winning captain to bat if they get the call.

Predicted Lineups

London Spirit (based on XI vs MI London, 29 Jul 2026)

  1. Lhuan-dre Pretorius
  2. Jonny Bairstow (wk)
  3. James Rew
  4. Liam Livingstone (c)
  5. Dewald Brevis
  6. James Coles
  7. Jamie Overton
  8. David Willey
  9. Andrew Tye
  10. Adam Zampa
  11. Adam Milne

Southern Brave (based on recent squad)

  1. Jamie Smith (wk)
  2. Ben McKinney
  3. Marcus Stoinis
  4. David Miller
  5. Tristan Stubbs
  6. Nikhil Chaudhary
  7. Chris Jordan (c)
  8. Jofra Archer
  9. Saif Zaib
  10. Adil Rashid
  11. Luke Wood

Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points from the Statz model:

Captain: Liam Livingstone (LS) – projected 57.9 pts. The London Spirit skipper has 118 runs at 39.33 this season with a high score of 69. His all-round ability – batting at a strike rate of 145.5 and capable of taking wickets – makes him the standout captain choice. He has scored 20+ runs in 66.7% of his last 5 matches.

Vice Captain: Marcus Stoinis (SB) – projected 59.5 pts. The Australian all-rounder is Southern Brave’s most consistent performer, with 4 wickets in 2 matches and a strike rate of 140.8 with the bat. His dual-threat status provides excellent value in a tight contest.

Also consider:

Key Players

Liam Livingstone (London Spirit)

The Spirit captain is their most important player. With 118 runs at an average of 39.33 and a strike rate of 145.5, Livingstone has been the driving force in their batting. His last three scores of 69, 33 and 16 show he is capable of explosive starts. He also contributes with the ball, having taken 1 wicket this season. At Lord’s, where boundaries are at a premium, his ability to rotate strike and find the gaps will be crucial.

Dewald Brevis (London Spirit)

The South African batter has been a revelation for Spirit. With 98 runs at 32.67 from 3 matches, Brevis has hit 20+ runs in all three of his innings this season – a 100% hit rate. His strike rate of 144.3 shows he can accelerate when needed. On a bowler-friendly pitch like Lord’s, his ability to find boundaries will be tested, but his form suggests he will deliver.

Marcus Stoinis (Southern Brave)

Stoinis is Southern Brave’s lifeline. The all-rounder has taken 4 wickets in just 2 matches and brings genuine batting depth. His projected 59.5 fantasy points make him the standout performer in the Statz model. With Brave needing a win desperately, Stoinis’ ability to contribute across all three disciplines – batting, bowling and fielding – could be the difference.

Chris Jordan (Southern Brave)

The Brave captain is their primary strike bowler. Jordan has taken 4 wickets in 1 match this season, showing he can be destructive when conditions suit. At Lord’s, where seam bowlers thrive, Jordan’s experience and skill with the new ball will be vital in setting the tone for Brave’s bowling attack.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Lord’s with temperatures around 22 degrees Celsius. Humidity is moderate at 45%, and no rain is expected. Wind will be light at 4.2 km/h from the south-west. These are ideal cricket conditions – dry, warm and with minimal interruption expected.

Who will win London Spirit vs Southern Brave?

Southern Brave are slight favourites at 48.9% win probability, with London Spirit at 44.6%. This is a coin-flip contest according to the Statz model, but the data suggests Brave gain a significant edge if they win the toss and bowl first – their win probability jumps to 51.5% in that scenario.

However, London Spirit’s recent form and home advantage at Lord’s cannot be ignored. They have won their last match and know this ground well. Southern Brave are desperate – winless from three – and desperation can breed either excellence or collapse. The toss will be pivotal. If Brave win and bowl first, they become genuine contenders. If Spirit win the toss and bat, they should be favoured to set a defendable total on a pitch that will deteriorate under lights.

The Statz projections suggest a low-scoring match around 275-276 runs – well below the Lord’s average of 284. Expect a tight contest where bowling discipline and smart batting will win the day.

Best Bets and Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and hit rates on this fixture:

London Spirit vs Southern Brave prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win London Spirit vs Southern Brave?

A: Southern Brave are slight favourites at 48.9% win probability, but this is a coin-flip contest. London Spirit sit at 44.6%. The toss will be critical – Brave’s win probability jumps to 51.5% if they bowl first, while Spirit are favoured if they bat first. Home advantage and recent form favour Spirit, but Brave’s desperation could spark a turnaround.

Q: What is the projected match total?

A: The Statz model projects a match total of around 275-276 runs, well below the Lord’s average of 284. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest where bowling discipline will dominate. The P10-P90 range is 262 to 349 runs.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss winner should bat first. Teams batting first at Lord’s have won 60% of matches since 2021. Southern Brave would be wise to bowl first if they win – their win probability jumps 9.5 percentage points in that scenario. London Spirit would prefer to bat and set a target.

Q: Is Southern Brave a good bet?

A: Southern Brave are slight favourites at 48.9% win probability, but they are winless from 3 matches and facing a home side in form. The odds are indicative and reflect the tight nature of this contest. Backing them requires faith that desperation breeds excellence – a risky proposition given their recent form.