Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire Prediction, Projections & Preview

30th July 2026

Birmingham Phoenix host Welsh Fire at Edgbaston on Saturday for the 15th match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 13:30 BST on 1 August.

Phoenix sit 7th in the table on 4 points from 2 matches (W1 L1), while Welsh Fire occupy 4th on 8 points from 3 matches (W2 L1). This is a crucial fixture in the middle of the group stage – both sides need momentum to push towards the knockouts. For full head-to-head records, live projections and lineups, check the Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Pitch

Edgbaston has been a run-fest in The Hundred this season. Across the last 10 matches here, the average match total stands at 303.9 with an average first-innings score of 154.9. Boundaries dominate the ground – 62.1% of runs come from fours and sixes, with an average of 12.5 sixes per match. This is a venue that rewards aggressive batting and punishes poor bowling length.

Seam bowlers have taken 72.7% of wickets at an economy rate of 11.03, while spinners have been more economical at 12.64 but account for just 22.7% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. Teams batting first at Edgbaston have won 42.1% of matches since 2021 – a slight advantage to chasing sides.

Form and Table Position

Birmingham Phoenix – 7th (P2 W1 L1, 4 pts)

Phoenix have had a mixed start to their Hundred campaign. They beat Trent Rockets by 10 runs on 24 July (214/4 vs 204/7) but suffered a heavy loss to Manchester Super Giants three days later (100/10 vs 187/5). Their net run rate of -3.166 reflects that defeat. They need a win here to climb back into contention.

Welsh Fire – 4th (P3 W2 L1, 8 pts)

Welsh Fire have made a strong start. They won convincingly against MI London (167/5 vs 152/6) and Southern Brave (138/4 vs 135/7) but suffered a loss to Trent Rockets on 29 July (122/7 vs 126/1). Their net run rate of -0.513 shows they remain competitive despite that defeat. A win here would consolidate their top-four position.

Head-to-Head

Birmingham Phoenix hold the edge in this fixture. From 5 meetings in Statz data, Phoenix have won 3 to Welsh Fire’s 2. However, the most recent clash on 22 August 2025 went decisively to Welsh Fire – they chased down 138/9 with ease, winning by 8 wickets with 11 balls remaining. That victory will give Fire confidence heading into this match.

Statz Projections and Who Will Win

The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip contest with a slight lean to Birmingham Phoenix.

If Birmingham bat first: Projected first-innings total of 151.2, match total of 289.4. Win probability – Phoenix 49.7%, Fire 43.8% (with 6.5% no-result).

If Welsh Fire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 146.9, match total of 285.3. Win probability – Phoenix 54.4%, Fire 39.1% (with 6.5% no-result).

Both projected match totals sit below the Edgbaston average of 303.9, suggesting the model rates both bowling attacks as capable of restricting scoring. The projected first-innings totals of around 150 are also below the venue average of 154.9.

Verdict: Who Will Win Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire?

Birmingham Phoenix are favoured to win at 52.1%, with Welsh Fire at 41.5%. This is a coin-flip match, but Phoenix’s home advantage at Edgbaston and their recent form against Fire tips the balance slightly in their favour. Welsh Fire’s loss to Trent Rockets has dented their momentum, while Phoenix will be desperate to bounce back from their heavy defeat to Manchester Super Giants.

The bookmakers reflect this tight contest. Indicative odds show Phoenix around 1.70 and Welsh Fire around 2.10 across the major betting operators.

Toss Prediction

The toss will be crucial here. If Phoenix win the toss, they should bat first – their 49.7% win probability batting first is stronger than Fire’s 39.1% win probability when chasing. If Fire win the toss, they should also bat first, where their 54.4% win probability is significantly higher than Phoenix’s 43.8% when chasing. Expect the winning captain to bat first.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points from the most recent starting XIs:

Captain: Rachin Ravindra (Welsh Fire) – projected 65.5 pts when Fire bat first. The all-rounder has been Welsh Fire’s standout performer with 138 runs from 3 matches at an average of 46, plus 2 wickets with his off-spin. His last three scores of 24, 98 and 16 show explosive potential. He hits 66.7% of his matches for 20+ runs and 33.3% for 30+.

Vice Captain: Jordan Cox (Welsh Fire) – projected 50.3 pts when Fire bat first. The wicketkeeper-batter has 56 runs from 3 matches with a high score of 33. His last three scores of 6, 17 and 33 show he is capable of big hits at the death. Projected for 31.3 runs when Fire bat first.

Also consider:

Key Players

Rachin Ravindra (Welsh Fire)

The New Zealand all-rounder has been Welsh Fire’s standout performer this season. With 138 runs at an average of 46 from 3 matches, including a match-winning 98, Ravindra brings genuine class to the Fire lineup. His off-spin has also been effective – 2 wickets from 3 matches. He hits 20+ runs in 66.7% of his matches and has taken a wicket in 66.7% of games. A dual threat that Phoenix must contain.

Joe Clarke (Birmingham Phoenix)

The Phoenix captain has made a strong start with 88 runs from 2 matches at an average of 44, including a crucial 68 against Trent Rockets. Clarke’s experience and aggressive approach will be vital if Phoenix are to post a competitive total. His last two scores of 68 and 20 show he is in decent form heading into this fixture.

Ben Dwarshuis (Birmingham Phoenix)

The Australian quick has been Phoenix’s most reliable bowler. With 2 wickets from 2 matches and a projected 1.36 wickets per game, Dwarshuis has the pace and skill to trouble Welsh Fire’s batters. His economy rate of 9.86 is excellent for The Hundred format. He will be crucial to Phoenix’s chances of restricting Fire’s scoring.

Lockie Ferguson (Welsh Fire)

The New Zealand quick has been Welsh Fire’s standout bowler. With 4 wickets from 3 matches, Ferguson has taken a wicket in 33.3% of games. His pace and yorker variations make him a genuine threat at the death. Projected for 1.22 wickets per game, Ferguson will be key to Fire’s bowling attack.

Competition Leaders

Orange Cap (Top Run-Scorer): Ben Duckett (Trent Rockets) leads with 175 runs from 3 matches. Rachin Ravindra (Welsh Fire) sits 4th with 138 runs.

Purple Cap (Top Wicket-Taker): Richard Gleeson (MI London) leads with 8 wickets from 4 matches. Lockie Ferguson (Welsh Fire) has 4 wickets from 3 matches.

Predicted Lineups

Birmingham Phoenix (based on XI vs Manchester Super Giants, 26 July 2026)

  1. Joe Clarke (c/wk)
  2. Will Smeed
  3. Rehan Ahmed
  4. Laurie Evans
  5. Donovan Ferreira
  6. Mitchell Owen
  7. Sean Dickson
  8. Ben Dwarshuis
  9. Scott Currie
  10. Saqib Mahmood
  11. Usman Tariq

Welsh Fire (based on XI vs Trent Rockets, 29 July 2026)

  1. Philip Salt (c/wk)
  2. Matthew Short
  3. Joe Root
  4. Rachin Ravindra
  5. Jordan Cox
  6. Marco Jansen
  7. Asa Tribe
  8. Ben Kellaway
  9. Chris Woakes
  10. Lockie Ferguson
  11. Samuel Cook

These lineups are based on the most recent matches for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and hit rates on this fixture:

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Edgbaston with temperatures around 22 degrees at the start and humidity at 58%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 4.2 km/h from the south-west – conditions that should favour batting throughout the afternoon.

Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire?

A: Birmingham Phoenix are favoured at 52.1% win probability, with Welsh Fire at 41.5%. This is a coin-flip match, but Phoenix’s home advantage and Welsh Fire’s recent loss to Trent Rockets tips the balance slightly to the hosts. Nothing is guaranteed in The Hundred.

Q: What is the projected match total?

A: The Statz model projects a match total of around 287 runs, with first-innings totals of 151-147 depending on who bats first. This sits below the Edgbaston average of 303.9, suggesting both bowling attacks will be competitive.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss is a 50-50 call, but the winning captain should bat first. Phoenix’s win probability batting first (49.7%) is stronger than chasing (43.8%), while Fire’s win probability batting first (54.4%) is significantly higher than chasing (39.1%).

Q: Is Birmingham Phoenix a good bet?

A: Phoenix are slight favourites at 52.1% win probability with indicative odds around 1.70. They have home advantage and need to bounce back from a heavy defeat. However, Welsh Fire have won 2 of their last 3 and beat Phoenix convincingly in their last meeting, so this is far from settled.