LEI vs DER Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz
25th May 2026
Two teams desperate for a first win of the T20 Blast 2026 season. Leicestershire and Derbyshire are both 0-2 and rooted to the bottom of the North Group – something has to give when they meet on Tuesday 27 May at 10:30 PM IST (6:00 PM BST).
Full H2H stats, projections and lineups on Statz
The Venue
The venue for this fixture is unconfirmed in the Statz data. As Leicestershire’s home match, Grace Road in Leicester is the expected ground – but with no confirmed venue data available, we cannot provide ground-specific stats or conditions analysis. Check the fixture page closer to match day for confirmation.
Form and Table
Leicestershire – 16th, P2 W0 L2, 0 pts
A rough start for LEI. They managed just 148/8 in the loss to Durham before going down again to Worcestershire, posting 170/4 in a chase of 188/9. Their recent form stretching back to 2025 reads L L L NR L – four defeats in their last five completed matches. Scoring has been the issue, averaging just 159 runs per innings this season while conceding 169.
Derbyshire – 11th, P2 W0 L2, 0 pts
Derbyshire have been competitive but cannot close games out. They posted 194/4 against Yorkshire only to watch the hosts chase it down, then put up 197/8 against Durham and still lost. Those are healthy totals – averaging 195.5 scored this season – but the bowling has leaked runs at 199 per match. Last five (including 2025): L L L W L.
North Group Top 4
Northamptonshire, Durham, Lancashire, and Yorkshire all sit on 8 points from 2 wins in 2. Early days – each team plays 14 group matches – but LEI and DER need to get moving quickly. There are 12 matches remaining for both sides.
Head-to-Head
Eight meetings since 2022 (Statz data) and Derbyshire dominate this rivalry 7-1. That is a striking record. The last meeting came on 14 June 2025 at Edgbaston where DER chased down LEI’s 196/5 with 7 wickets to spare, reaching 197/3. Even at Grace Road specifically, DER have won 2 of 3. Leicestershire’s solitary win in this run only underlines how one-sided this fixture has been.
Statz Projections
The Statz model sees this as a coin-flip. If LEI bat first, they are projected at 49.8% win probability against DER’s 48.2%. Flip the innings and DER edge it 49.2% to 48.8%. Model confidence sits at 0.7 – lower than franchise leagues, reflecting the smaller T20 Blast dataset.
Projected first innings total: 167.8 (LEI batting first) or 165.3 (DER batting first). The P10-P90 range for first innings runs stretches from 138 to 192, and match totals are projected between 276 and 364. Full projections on Statz.
Competition Season Leaders
T20 Blast 2026 – Top Run Scorers
- James Rew – 140 runs
- Matthew Montgomery – 110 runs
- Sam Curran – 103 runs
- Martin Andersson – 99 runs
- Alex Lees – 99 runs
T20 Blast 2026 – Top Wicket Takers
- Jack Morley – 7 wickets
- Duan Jansen – 7 wickets
- Fazalhaq Farooqi – 6 wickets
- Calvin Harrison – 6 wickets
- Craig Overton – 5 wickets
Derbyshire have two players in the top 5 run scorers – Matthew Montgomery (110 runs at 55) and Martin Andersson (99 at 49.5) – plus the tournament’s joint-leading wicket-taker in Jack Morley with 7 wickets from just 2 matches.
Leicestershire Season Leaders
Runs: Nick Kelly 90 runs (avg 45, HS 61), Ben Cox 59 (avg 29.5, HS 51), Sol Budinger 56 (avg 28, HS 40).
Wickets: Ben Mike 3 wkts (2 matches), Josh Davey 3 (2), Liam Trevaskis 2 (2).
Derbyshire Season Leaders
Runs: Matthew Montgomery 110 (avg 55, HS 75), Martin Andersson 99 (avg 49.5, HS 81), Ross Whiteley 83 (avg 41.5, HS 44).
Wickets: Jack Morley 7 wkts (2 matches), Nick Potts 4 (2), Akif Javed 2 (2).
Predicted XIs
Leicestershire (from 24 May vs Durham)
Stevie Eskinazi, Sol Budinger, Rishi Patel, Nick Kelly, Ashton Turner, Ben Cox (WK), Ben Green (C), Liam Trevaskis, Ben Mike, Josh Davey, Josh Hull
Derbyshire (from 24 May vs Yorkshire)
Aneurin Donald (C)(WK), Martin Andersson, Caleb Jewell, Wayne Madsen, Matthew Montgomery, Ross Whiteley, Amrit Basra, Akif Javed, Ben Aitchison, Nick Potts, Jack Morley
Lineups based on most recent match day squads. Check the fixture page for any confirmed changes after the toss.
Dream11 Tips
Captain: Wayne Madsen – projected 31.4 runs from the Statz model, the highest individual projection in this fixture. DER’s experienced middle-order anchor has been a consistent performer in this format and faces a LEI attack that has conceded 169 per match this season.
Vice Captain: Nick Kelly – LEI’s top scorer this season with 90 runs at 45 including a high score of 61. Projected for 30.6 runs. The New Zealand import has looked the most assured batter in this Leicestershire lineup.
Key Players
Jack Morley (DER) – The Tournament’s Top Spinner
Seven wickets in two matches puts Morley joint-top of the T20 Blast wicket charts. Projected for 1.61 wickets here – comfortably the highest bowling projection in the match. If Leicestershire’s middle order struggles again, Morley will be central to it.
Nick Kelly (LEI) – The Run Anchor
LEI’s most reliable batter with 90 runs at 45 this season. Projected for 30.6 runs, Kelly’s ability to build an innings could be the difference for a side that has struggled to post competitive totals. His 61 against one of the matches shows he can accelerate when set.
Matthew Montgomery (DER) – Competition’s Second-Highest Run Scorer
110 runs at 55 from two matches, including a high score of 75. Montgomery sits second in the overall T20 Blast run charts behind only James Rew. Projected for 21.5 runs and 0.59 wickets – his all-round contribution adds extra value.
Ben Green (LEI) – Captain’s All-Round Threat
Projected for 14.1 runs and 1.22 wickets, Green’s dual role as LEI skipper and all-rounder makes him a key figure. His bowling projection of 1.22 wickets is among the highest in this fixture, and Leicestershire need him to deliver with both bat and ball.
Conditions
Weather data is unavailable for this fixture as the venue is unconfirmed in the Statz system. With no ground coordinates, we cannot provide a forecast. The match is scheduled for an evening start (6:00 PM BST), so dew could be a factor if conditions are clear – something to monitor closer to match day.
Verdict and Betting Angles
The Statz projections call this dead even – 49.8% vs 48.2% in LEI’s favour if they bat first, essentially a coin toss. The bookmakers agree: bet365 have both sides at 1.86.
But the H2H tells a different story. Derbyshire have won 7 of 8 meetings since 2022, including 2 of 3 at Grace Road. That is not noise – that is a pattern. DER also boast the stronger batting lineup this season, averaging 195.5 per innings compared to LEI’s 159, and have three of the top run scorers in this fixture across the competition leaderboards.
The lean here is towards Derbyshire. Their batting depth – Montgomery, Andersson, Madsen, Whiteley – gives them more routes to a competitive total, and Morley’s 7 wickets from 2 matches provides genuine wicket-taking threat. LEI’s bowling has looked porous and the batting has been too reliant on Kelly.
Odds (bet365): LEI 1.86 | DER 1.86
Ladbrokes: LEI 1.80 | DER 2.00
At even money on bet365, DER represent slight value given the H2H dominance. The Ladbrokes price of 2.00 for Derbyshire looks the better line if you can get it.
Bet builder data is limited with only two matches played per side this season, so individual player markets carry higher variance than usual. Explore angles on the Statz Cricket Bet Builder.
All odds indicative at time of writing. Odds may change before match start.