Finland vs Portugal preview

3rd July 2026

Finland host Portugal in a T20 International clash on 5 July 2026 at 08:00 UTC. This is a fresh fixture between the two sides – they have never met in T20 cricket before, making this an intriguing opener. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Finland vs Portugal fixture page on Statz.

Match Context

Both teams are competing in T20 International cricket at a time when associate nations are increasingly pushing into the global conversation. Finland arrive here ranked 40th in the ICC T20I rankings with 1374 points from 18 matches played. Portugal, meanwhile, are building their programme and bring a squad hungry to prove themselves on the international stage. This fixture carries weight for both sides as they look to climb the rankings and establish themselves as competitive forces in global T20 cricket.

Finland’s recent form has been mixed but encouraging. They have won four of their last five matches, including victories over Norway, Sweden (twice) and Austria. Their sole loss came against Sweden on 14 June, when they fell short by one run in a tight chase – a match that saw them score 116/10 in just 14.5 overs. Before that, they had strung together three consecutive wins, showing they can compete at this level.

Portugal have been in exceptional form. They have won their last four matches on the bounce, including three consecutive victories against Sweden in early July. Most recently, on 2 July, they chased down Sweden’s total with a single wicket remaining, demonstrating the kind of nerve and skill required in T20 cricket. Their previous outing saw them post 169/8 and defend it successfully, showing they can win from either batting position.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections paint this as a tight contest with Finland holding a marginal edge.

If Finland bat first: Projected first-innings total of 155.8, match total of 297.2. Win probability – Finland 54.8%, Portugal 43.2%, with 2% for no result. First-innings P10-P90 range: 131 to 181.

If Portugal bat first: Projected first-innings total of 149.8, match total of 291.4. Win probability – Finland 54.7%, Portugal 43.3%, with 2% for no result. First-innings P10-P90 range: 119 to 178.

The projected match totals sit around 294-297, suggesting both teams will find scoring moderately challenging. The model rates Finland’s bowling slightly higher than Portugal’s, which explains the consistent 54-55% win probability for the home side regardless of who bats first. Match total P10-P90 range: 262 to 349.

Finland Season Leaders

Runs

Faraaz Mehti Abbas leads the way with 206 runs at an average of 25.75 from 8 matches, including a high score of 50. Nicholas Salonen has contributed 139 runs at 17.38 from 8 innings, while Vanraaj Padhaal has 130 runs at 26.0 with a best of 84. Aniketh Pusthay has 116 runs at 16.57 from 7 matches.

Wickets

Amjad Sher is the standout bowler with 16 wickets from 8 matches at an average of 2.0, with a best return of 3. Hammadullah Shinwari has taken 12 wickets at 1.71 per match, including a haul of 6 in one innings. Muhammad Junaid Khan has 7 wickets from 7 matches.

Portugal Season Leaders

Runs

Carlos Nunes has been Portugal’s standout batter with 113 runs at an average of 37.67 from just 3 matches, including a high score of 67. Sharn Gomes has 70 runs at 23.33 from 3 innings with a best of 37. Dhavalkumar Norotam has 68 runs at 22.67 from 3 matches.

Wickets

Edward Fleming and Sebastian Cruz De Oliviera have both taken 6 wickets from 3 matches. Fleming has a best of 3 wickets, while Cruz De Oliviera’s best is 4. Hardeep Khuttan has 3 wickets from 2 matches.

Predicted XIs

Finland (based on most recent XI)

  1. Aniketh Pusthay
  2. Vanraaj Padhaal
  3. Jordan O’Brien (wk)
  4. Amjad Sher (c)
  5. Faheem Nellancheri
  6. Muhammad Junaid Khan
  7. Mahesh Tambe
  8. Nicholas Salonen
  9. Piumal Eeshwara Acharige
  10. Zahidullah Kamal (wk)
  11. Faraaz Mehti Abbas

Portugal (based on most recent XI)

  1. Carlos Nunes (c, wk)
  2. Dhavalkumar Norotam
  3. Edward Fleming
  4. Hardeep Khuttan
  5. Jordan Pereira Netto
  6. Md Siraj Nipo
  7. Natim Hassam
  8. Sebastian Cruz De Oliviera
  9. Sharn Gomes
  10. Upen Shantu
  11. Jeremy Martins

These lineups are based on the most recent starting XIs for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for confirmed XIs on match day.

Key Players

Amjad Sher (Finland)

Finland’s captain and leading bowler. Sher has been the standout performer this season with 16 wickets from 8 matches. He has taken at least one wicket in 87.5% of matches and 2+ wickets in 75% of games. His last three matches saw him take 2, 2 and 0 wickets respectively. The Statz projections show him as the top Dream11 points scorer for Finland when batting first, with projected 102.3 points. His all-round contribution – both with ball and occasional batting – makes him crucial to Finland’s chances.

Carlos Nunes (Portugal)

Portugal’s captain and wicketkeeper has been in exceptional form. Nunes has 113 runs from just 3 matches at an average of 37.67 with a high score of 67. He has scored 20+ runs in 66.7% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in the same percentage. The Statz projections show him as the top Dream11 points scorer for Portugal, with 73.8 projected points when Portugal bat second. His leadership and batting prowess will be vital.

Edward Fleming (Portugal)

Fleming has taken 6 wickets from 3 matches and has a 100% hit rate for taking 1+ wicket in every match he has played. His best return is 3 wickets. The Statz projections show him with 98.7 projected Dream11 points when Portugal bat second. He provides crucial bowling depth and has proven reliable in the recent matches against Sweden.

Faraaz Mehti Abbas (Finland)

Finland’s leading run-scorer with 206 runs at 25.75 from 8 matches. Abbas has scored 20+ runs in 62.5% of matches this season and 30+ runs in 25% of games. His last three scores of 18, 23 and 43 show a player capable of big contributions. The Statz projections show him with strong potential for fantasy points, making him a key batter to watch.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points from the Statz model:

Captain: Amjad Sher (Finland) – projected 102.3 points when Finland bat first. The all-rounder provides value across all three disciplines with his 16 wickets this season and occasional batting contributions. His captaincy and leadership make him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Carlos Nunes (Portugal) – projected 73.8 points when Portugal bat second. Portugal’s captain has been in outstanding form with 113 runs from 3 matches and will be looking to continue his run of big scores.

Also consider:

Verdict and Betting Angles

The Statz projections make Finland slight favourites at 54.8% win probability, with Portugal at 43.3%. This reflects Finland’s home advantage and their marginally stronger bowling attack led by Amjad Sher. However, Portugal’s recent form – four consecutive wins – cannot be ignored. They have shown they can chase successfully and defend totals, suggesting they are a team in form.

The projected match total of around 294 suggests a moderately competitive pitch where batting will require application but scoring is achievable. Both teams have demonstrated they can post competitive totals in recent matches.

I am leaning Finland here. Home advantage, the strength of their bowling attack with Sher leading the way, and the Statz model’s consistent 54-55% win probability for the home side make them the pick. Portugal will provide stern opposition, but Finland’s experience at home should prove decisive.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: