Durham vs Nottinghamshire Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

3rd July 2026

Durham host Nottinghamshire at the Riverside Ground on Saturday for a T20 Blast clash with significant implications for both sides’ quarter-final hopes. First ball is at 14:30 BST on 5 July.

Durham sit 12th in the table on 12 points from seven matches, having won just three games and lost four. They are in desperate need of a turnaround if they are to make the knockout stages. Nottinghamshire, by contrast, are flying – fifth on 20 points from eight matches with five wins and only three losses. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Durham vs Nottinghamshire fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

The Riverside Ground has been a run-fest this season. Across the last 10 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 332.2 with an average first-innings score of 175.8. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz, but the numbers tell a story of a ground that favours the bat.

Seam bowlers have taken 57.3% of wickets at an economy rate of 9.58, while spinners have been more economical at 8.88 but account for 32.5% of dismissals. Durham’s home record since 2021 reads W14 L16 from 33 matches – a losing record that underlines their struggles at this venue. Nottinghamshire have won two of their four away visits here, showing they can thrive on this ground.

Form and Table

Durham – 12th (P7 W3 L4, 12 pts)

Durham are in trouble. A single win in their last five matches – a 100-run demolition of Middlesex on 28 June – masks a deeper malaise. They have lost four of their last five and sit in the bottom half with six matches remaining to save their season:

Nottinghamshire – 5th (P8 W5 L3, 20 pts)

Nottinghamshire have been the standout side in the competition. Five wins from their last five away matches shows a team in complete control. They are level on points with the teams in 3rd and 4th, and a win here would strengthen their grip on a top-four spot:

Head-to-Head

Nottinghamshire have dominated this fixture in recent seasons. From nine meetings since 2022, Nottinghamshire have won six to Durham’s two, with one no-result. The most recent clash came on 31 May 2026 at this ground, where Nottinghamshire chased down Durham’s 156/8 with clinical precision, reaching 157/4 in just 17.2 overs.

At the Riverside specifically, the record is W2 L2 in Nottinghamshire’s favour from four matches since 2021. Durham’s home record against all opposition is W14 L16 – they simply do not win enough matches here to inspire confidence.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections make this a marginal contest, but with Durham given a slight edge at home.

If Durham bat first: Projected first-innings total of 173.9, match total of 334.2. Win probability – DUR 54.1%, NOT 43.9%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 148 to 201.

If Nottinghamshire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 170.7, match total of 330.9. Win probability – DUR 46.5%, NOT 51.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 140 to 200.

Both projected match totals sit just below the Riverside average of 332.2, suggesting the model rates both bowling attacks as capable. The key insight: Nottinghamshire gain a 7.6 percentage point edge if they bowl first, hinting that chasing conditions may suit their aggressive batting lineup.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers

Player Team Runs Inn
Beau Webster Warwickshire 427 8
George Munsey Nottinghamshire 408 8
James Rew Somerset 342 6
Sam Billings Kent 338 8
Chris Lynn Northamptonshire 320 7

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers

Player Team Wkts Inn
James Sales Northamptonshire 18 8
Mohammad Ali Nottinghamshire 17 8
Reece Topley Surrey 16 8
Duan Jansen Gloucestershire 16 6
Hasan Ali Yorkshire 15 7

Durham Season Leaders

Runs: Alex Lees – 268 runs, avg 38.29, HS 108 | Graham Clark – 151 runs, avg 21.57, HS 62 | Ollie George Robinson – 133 runs, avg 19.0, HS 48

Wickets: Matty Potts – 12 wkts, best 3 | Kasey Aldridge – 12 wkts, best 3 | Callum Parkinson – 11 wkts, best 3

Nottinghamshire Season Leaders

Runs: George Munsey – 408 runs, avg 51.0, HS 88 | Tom Moores – 190 runs, avg 23.75, HS 75 | Jack Haynes – 181 runs, avg 22.63, HS 50

Wickets: Mohammad Ali – 17 wkts, best 3 | Dillon Pennington – 8 wkts, best 3 | George Linde – 7 wkts, best 2

Predicted XIs

Durham (based on XI vs Middlesex, 28 Jun 2026)

  1. Graham Clark
  2. Alex Lees (c)
  3. David Bedingham
  4. Colin Ackermann
  5. Ollie George Robinson (wk)
  6. Ben McKinney
  7. Kasey Aldridge
  8. Ben Raine
  9. Matty Potts
  10. Nathan Sowter
  11. Callum Parkinson

Nottinghamshire (based on XI vs Leicestershire, 28 Jun 2026)

  1. Joe Clarke (c)
  2. George Munsey
  3. Jack Haynes
  4. Freddie McCann
  5. Tom Moores (wk)
  6. George Linde
  7. Benny Howell
  8. Liam Patterson-White
  9. Olly Stone
  10. Mohammad Ali
  11. Mohammad Amir

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Ben Raine (DUR) – projected ~97.5 pts. The Durham all-rounder projects for 11.5 runs and 1.73 wickets, making him a dual-threat captain option. His economy rate of 7.92 is strong for this ground.

Vice Captain: Matty Potts (DUR) – projected ~95.8 pts. The all-rounder has taken 12 wickets this season and projects for 1.81 wickets in this match, with 7.2 runs expected. A consistent performer for Durham.

Also consider:

Key Players

George Munsey (Nottinghamshire)

The Scottish opener has been the standout batter in this competition. With 408 runs at an average of 51.0 and a high score of 88, Munsey sits second in the Orange Cap race. His last three scores of 53, 82 and 75 show a player in devastating touch. The Statz bet builder shows Munsey has hit 20+ runs in 87.5% of his matches this season – an extraordinary consistency rate for a T20 opener.

Alex Lees (Durham)

Durham’s captain and their most prolific run-scorer. Lees has 268 runs at an average of 38.29 with a high score of 108, and he has hit 30+ runs in 57.1% of his matches this season. He is Durham’s best hope of building a significant total, but his form in recent weeks has been patchy – just 15 runs in his last match before the Middlesex win.

Mohammad Ali (Nottinghamshire)

The competition’s second-highest wicket-taker with 17 wickets in 8 matches. Mohammad Ali has taken at least one wicket in every single match this season (100% hit rate) and has taken 2+ wickets in 75% of matches. His last three returns of 3, 2 and 3 wickets show a bowler at the peak of his powers.

Kasey Aldridge (Durham)

The Durham all-rounder has been a revelation with 12 wickets from just seven matches – a 100% hit rate for taking at least one wicket. He also contributes with the bat, projecting for 13.5 runs in this match. His ability to impact both sides of the game makes him a key player for Durham’s hopes.

Conditions

Overcast skies are forecast for the Riverside with temperatures around 19 degrees and humidity at 62%. Light rain is possible but nothing significant is expected. Wind is light at 4.2 km/h from the north-west – conditions that should remain stable throughout the afternoon and evening.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a coin-flip contest on the projections, but the underlying form and recent head-to-head record strongly favour Nottinghamshire. Durham are in freefall – one win in five matches and a losing home record since 2021. Nottinghamshire, by contrast, have won five straight away matches and beat Durham at this ground just five weeks ago.

The verdict leans Durham at 50.3% win probability, but that is purely a home ground effect. Nottinghamshire’s quality – led by George Munsey and Mohammad Ali – should prevail. The bookmakers have Nottinghamshire as slight favourites, with indicative odds around 1.90 for Nottinghamshire and 1.85 for Durham.

I am leaning Nottinghamshire here. Their form is superior, their bowling attack is the second-best in the competition, and they have already proven they can win at this ground this season. Durham need a win desperately, but desperation does not win T20 matches – quality does.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: